I can’t remember who said it, and I don’t really have the time to look it up right now… but, well… we seem to be doing such a good job of doing the Mafia’s job right now, don’t we? So far we’ve managed to lynch nothing but townfolk, using our existing strategies.
Maybe it’s time to rethink? Hell, I know my previous strategies weren’t working- I managed to vote for townies, myself. Tonight I’m going to sit down and just look at who’s managed to avoid any real suspicion, because if we’ve been doing so badly so far, maybe the ones that have managed to avoid suspicion completely are the ones we need to look at.
I’m not just saying this because I’m under suspicion. I’m saying it because, so far, the scum are kicking our collective asses, and maybe it’s time for us to examine why that’s been happening.
That’s a big fear of mine too. We have a horrible track record, and here we have fluiddruid defending herself well, and Lightnin’ hardly defending himself at all (because he’s been doing it since Day 1). Are they both scum? If so, huzzah, we might actually win this one if we lynch them in short order. If they aren’t, though, we almost guaranty ourselves a loss by lynching them.
This game hurts my head.
I think I’ll probably end up voting for fluiddruid today, but not before I’ve really weighed everyone else, including Lightnin’. I am gunshy. I feel that if we lynch a townie today that it will be almost impossible to recover from since we’re bound to get a couple wrong before getting all of them.
True, it’s very possible that tirial is town and helped derail the bandwagon against scum. If we think that the percypercy bandwagon was scum driven to take the heat off of Lightnin’, which I’m still on the fence about, then those who took a direct role at diffusing the Lightnin’ bandwagon start to look more scummy. It just gave me a little pause when I realized that this line of thinking was implicating someone I had on the town side of my suspicion list.
I’m not sure we get much information if he isn’t, though, and the death of another townie comes at a huge cost to our chances of winning. This is why I’m so gun-shy right now. I’m still rather suspicious of Lightnin’, though not as much as of fluiddruid, but if we lynch Lightnin’ and it turns out we were wrong, do you think that opens the door to anybody who must be scum? If it doesn’t, can we afford to get it wrong? If it does, who do you think it would reveal so I can keep them in mind as I review the thread?
As others have noted, Day One was less of Projammer vs. percypercy than Lightnin vs. half the town. At the time you voted for percypercy, I believe Lightin had had both SCL and Millit voting for him – percy wasn’t even in the top three. Two yet-to-be-determined players buffeted Projammer and percypercy. How can you characterize that as town vs. town?
If Lightning turns out to be scum, then I guess tirial and I look pretty suspicious. But I honestly don’t have much of a scummy vibe from him, and lynching him just to prove that he’s town is wrongheaded. We don’t want to lynch people we’re pretty sure are town to prove they’re town, we want to lynch people we’re pretty sure are scum to prove they’re scum.
So if you really do think Lightning is scum then go ahead and vote for him, but I STILL don’t understand why he’s high on everyone’s list, just because he freaked out on the first day when everyone targeted him. That’s a newbie tell, not a scum tell. I don’t want to kill Lightning just to take sucpicion off of me. Although neither do I want to kill Lightning and have him turn up scum, because then I’m probably next.
Looking over previous votes, I just noticed that neither of our townies killed during the night–NAF and Kyrie–put final votes on someone who has since been confirmed town.
Day One, NAF waffles between fluiddruid and Lightnin’. Final vote is for Lightnin’. Kyrie goes between NAF and Omi. Final vote is for Omi.
Day Two, NAF is out of the game. Now Kyrie waits until that day is nearly over before finally voting for fluiddruid.
Could those final votes have been why they ended up getting taken out? I’m disinclined to think the Mafia would be so obvious as to kill those who voted against them, but it does make you wonder at the coincidence of it. If they turn up town, I’ll feel more certain about my theory on the Mafia targeting townies who had voted against other townies. If one is scum, on the other hand, it might make it more likely that the other one is as well, if the Mafia really is going after those who point fingers at them.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here, but if you mean by “final vote” who their vote was on at the end of the day, you’re wrong. On Day 1 NAF1138 voted for Projammer, confirmed town, and left it there until the end of the day. That was his final vote.
I’ve already outlined some of the advantages from knowing Lightnin’s status as a citizen:
Those who tried to derail the Lightnin’ train get a decidedly unscummy look
We would know the prevailing strategy of Mafia was to leave town lynching be, as long as it didn’t involve scum (**Lightnin’**s “train” would have no added benefit for scum, since the other possible victims were also citizens)
(from 2) We could start sifting trough the votes of those who didn’t vote to lynch the 3 victims, to see who is likelier scum
At the cost of killing off one of the few remaining Townies, seriously jeopardizing the chance of a Town victory.
Isn’t this something we can already surmise? Hell, I would think that’d be standard strategy. Of COURSE scum won’t vote on town-vs-town lynchings, or would at least to try to organize such that they don’t preferentially lynch one or the other. If it’s town-vs-town, why would they really care who gets the rope?
We can already see this.
You’re certainly willing to kill off players to find out who’s Scum. You’re not looking at my voting record, you’re just making the case that it’s best to kill me off to find out. At this point, we’ve already lost too many townies, and it’s pretty clear that we can’t spare any more town. Frankly, if I wasn’t me, that’d be making me nervous, right there.
So not voting to lynch someone you don’t think is scum is a scum tell? I’m afraid I don’t follow that. I have said repeatedly I will not vote to lynch someone I don’t think is scum. How does that make me scum?
I’m gonna come out and FOS DiggitCamara for his suggestion that we lynch Lightning just to confirm that the people who voted not to kill him aren’t scummy.
That’s crazy talk. You should only vote to lynch Lightning if he is your top scum candidate. Voting for anyone else other than your top scum candidate is crazy.
I’m not gonna FOS anyone who votes to lynch Lightning, but I sure am gonna FOS anyone who votes on such a flimsy pretext.
What I meant was: if scum see a contest to lynch two townies, promoted and kept alive by townies, they might very well keep their hands out of the fray.
That way, whoever gets lynched, they can claim they didn’t have anything to do with it.
Did he? Oh, geez. Okay, never mind then. If that’s the case, Millit the Frail’s spreadsheet is inaccurate. Or am I reading this wrong? My votes look to have been recorded properly but NAF and Kyrie’s votes are definitely off.
ummm… most people on day 3 voted for who they thought was “top scum” candidate.
What I’m saying is simple: We already have a nugget of information: on day two, when we had a confirmed race between two townies, there was no sudden rush to kill one of them (hence the coin flip).
Did we, by pure chance, find out a Mafia member? Did we, by pure chance, cause him to panic? Did we, by pure chance, cause a reaction among his fellow scum?
(and, just to complete my information: Lightnin’, because of:
I agree that we would gain information from Lightnin’, and I also agree that we potentially glean information from the vote shifting on day one away from him. I also agree that he looks mighty scummy (as I’ve outlined earlier). However, in my estimation, it appears that bother **fluiddruid ** and Lightnin’ are on the same side; CaerieD seems to be in that cluster a bit too (though not quite as strongly). Therefore, I’m of the mind that, whichever one is lynched, we can make much stronger assumptions about the other’s status. Let’s assume fluiddruid will get lynched (as it’s looking right now), and she comes up scum, then it REALLY looks like she orchestrated a bandwagon to save Lightnin’, and I will have about zero doubt left that he is scum as well. OTOH, if fluiddruid comes up townie, then all of this vote manipulation stuff to save Lightnin’ pretty much goes bye-bye, and then we’re stuck back with basically nothing. I think similar logic could be applied if we end up lynching Lightnin’ instead.
That said, I think we’ll gain about the same amount of information regardless of which of the two we lynch. Thus, though I appreciate and agree with your suspicion of him, I don’t think information gain is sufficient reason to necessarily prefer him over fluiddruid. OTOH, as you’ve also pointed out, his post have been overall less contributive than fluiddruid’s, and I’m admittedly intrigued by her defense (I’ll have to give it some more thought). So if we go by that, IF both are town, I would argue that **Lightnin’ ** is less of a loss than fluiddruid; but if both are scum, fluiddruid is more damaging to the mafia that losing Lightnin’.
That all said, pending my further review of fluiddruid’s defense (probably some time tomorrow), I expect I’ll keep my vote there, and if she’s scum, well, we know where to go next.