Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
1301

[QUOTE=Millit]
P1268 “Fluid hopes that when she is killed, SCL will fall to the bottom of our lists because she was set up by a Mafia member.”
[/QUOTE]
Quite possibly - Of course that entire premise hinges on Fluid being mafia.

[QUOTE=Cookies]
P1269"Only Mafia kill townies. When townies end up lynching another townie, what is truly happening is a sufficient number of individuals make a best-effort vote for a player who’s true role rests in a black box. Even in cases of “suicide” when a townie takes a passive stance instead of trying to derail his/her imminent demise, the votes cast for him/her by town players are not votes toward a townie lynch. They are best-effort votes toward an unknown."
[/QUOTE]
True, but what you are forgetting is that not all votes are towards an unknown. Mafia votes to lynch know that they are lynching townies. And frankly, what bandwagon would be easier for a mafia to jump on than one where they know the person is town and the town suspects it but is lynching to learn.

However if we keep hitting the strategic reset button that means failing to learn from the past few days, and that I think would be a mistake.

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
** P1272**“I’m looking over fluidruids entire defense post. The whole history of voting (seeing it all in one place like that for the first time) really makes me wonder now. I’m seeing things I never saw before.”
[/QUOTE]
Just be careful of the inaccuracies.e.g. Hal Briston’s town vote for dnooman being missed in the totals on Day Two, Diggit’s vote being out of Chronological order day one etc. They aren’t major, but they are there.

[QUOTE=nesta]
P1276"These two posts seem to be a large part of why the Lightnin’ bandwagon fell apart. The problem I have about this is that tirial has seemed more town than not to me. Maybe I’m wrong, though."
[/QUOTE]
I will remind you that I voted for him on Day Two (largely because he started to look more like scum to me than otherwise). However thanks for that - I am looking closely at Lemur866 at the moment. Yes there are worrying things, no I don’t have enough to post. I am slightly worried about posting a strong case against someone else right now in case it gets fluiddruid off the hook.

[QUOTE=nesta]
P1289 “On Day 1 NAF1138 voted for Projammer, confirmed town, and left it there until the end of the day. That was his final vote.”
[/QUOTE]
Actually I thought Naf’s votes went: fluid unvote, lightnin unvote, Projammer (final).

1302

[QUOTE=tirial]
Actually I thought Naf’s votes went: fluid unvote, lightnin unvote, Projammer (final).
[/QUOTE]
Like I said before, in my immediate post following, that it was a summary of the last few votes that day - it’s not intended to be a total list of every vote. That’s already been done and frankly there was a lot of voting/unvoting on Day One which was largely meaningless to our greater discussion (we had so little to go on and votes were flying around frequently).

1303

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

That said, I think we’ll gain about the same amount of information regardless of which of the two we lynch. Thus, though I appreciate and agree with your suspicion of him, I don’t think information gain is sufficient reason to necessarily prefer him over fluiddruid. OTOH, as you’ve also pointed out, his post have been overall less contributive than fluiddruid’s, and I’m admittedly intrigued by her defense (I’ll have to give it some more thought). So if we go by that, IF both are town, I would argue that **Lightnin’ ** is less of a loss than fluiddruid; but if both are scum, fluiddruid is more damaging to the mafia that losing Lightnin’.
[/QUOTE]

Overall I have to agree with your post.

The reason I prefer **Lightnin’ ** over fluiddruid as our lynchee hinges on the events of the first day (and the possible change in scum’s tactics on subsequent days).

I think there is a slim possibility of **fluiddruid **being citizen and **Lightnin’ ** being scum. It depends on two citizens (dnooman-confirmed and fluiddruid-for purposes of this scenario) making almost the same mistake, one after the other (guessing a power-role for Lightnin’) and on scum latching on to this mistake.

I am, however, pretty convinced that **Lightnin’**s scum.

1304

How can I be forgetting something that I repeatedly explicitly state?

The point I was trying to make was: If fluiddruid was town, she has a very interesting way of phrasing some of her statements. When playing a town role, only power roles such as the Masons and the Detective potentially have a clue as to who is town, and the likely hood that they will cast a vote for a known townie is slim and contingent on something like a Mason-win strategy or a pump-fake vote for someone who is not at risk of actually being lynched.

1305

After some consideration I am going to post my strategy notes from yesterday. I think the information might be useful or interesting to the town. The problem is that if I don’t post it its possible to have a vague idea what the mafia will do tonight, but since I can’t act on it it’s useless. With it posted their actions will take it into consideration and be more random and harder to predict.

I also suspect I’m going to be killed by one side, the other or an outraged poster off-list.

If anyone thinks this information should not be posted for whatever reason, please let say so in the next hour or so. I’ll let some more players get online before I post.

1306

[QUOTE=fluiddruid]
That’s already been done and frankly there was a lot of voting/unvoting on Day One which was largely meaningless to our greater discussion (we had so little to go on and votes were flying around frequently).
[/QUOTE]

Au Contraire! The voting/unvoting is central to the question of whether Day One was a case of townie/townie (ie Projammer/percypercy) activity, on which you have partially based your defence, or a case of potentially drawing suspicion away from the true vote-leader (Lightnin). So far, you have continued to evade this question.

1307

[QUOTE=Lightnin’]
I can’t remember who said it, and I don’t really have the time to look it up right now… but, well… we seem to be doing such a good job of doing the Mafia’s job right now, don’t we? So far we’ve managed to lynch nothing but townfolk, using our existing strategies.

Maybe it’s time to rethink? Hell, I know my previous strategies weren’t working- I managed to vote for townies, myself. Tonight I’m going to sit down and just look at who’s managed to avoid any real suspicion, because if we’ve been doing so badly so far, maybe the ones that have managed to avoid suspicion completely are the ones we need to look at.

I’m not just saying this because I’m under suspicion. I’m saying it because, so far, the scum are kicking our collective asses, and maybe it’s time for us to examine why that’s been happening.
[/QUOTE]

Not for the first time, this is actually heavy on my mind. That all I’ve thought and assumed thus far based on posts and feelings and all, have been wrong. I’m starting to feel I can’t trust anyone in this game. Not even myself (since I was wrong with dnooman).

I need to really read every post in here made from the last two days very carefully.

1308

This is a friendly reminder that those of you who haven’t posted much lately need to, y’know, post more. I’m going to be going through the thread tonight to see whether anyone’s currently in violation of the “no lurking” rule. Offenders will be singled out, and steps will be taken as necessary.

1309

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
Au Contraire! The voting/unvoting is central to the question of whether Day One was a case of townie/townie (ie Projammer/percypercy) activity, on which you have partially based your defence, or a case of potentially drawing suspicion away from the true vote-leader (Lightnin). So far, you have continued to evade this question.
[/QUOTE]

By the way, this has nothing to do with your post here but did you see my post here? Not only did you not ever say, in your last post, that you were going anywhere, but you didn’t say anything about coming back or being away in your first post in here after that lengthy absense.
Trying to stay low?

1310

Pardon the mistake. It’s actually here: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8547519&postcount=1206

1311

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
By the way, this has nothing to do with your post here but did you see my post here? Not only did you not ever say, in your last post, that you were going anywhere, but you didn’t say anything about coming back or being away in your first post in here after that lengthy absense.
Trying to stay low?
[/QUOTE]

Not necessarily trying to stay low – I would suppose that most mafia are trying hard not to look scummy by posting more often. Post counts don’t really tell me much unless someone’s neck is in the noose.

[Game off]Life happens. If things keep going like I expect, I could be posting a bit more copiously, as it looks like I’ll be needing to look for a new paycheck. Que sera, not entirely unexpected. Otherwise I will say that I had a nice weekend. :slight_smile:

If things get such that I can’t participate, I’ll ask Gadarene to sub me out.[/Game on]

1312

[QUOTE=tirial]
After some consideration I am going to post my strategy notes from yesterday. I think the information might be useful or interesting to the town. The problem is that if I don’t post it its possible to have a vague idea what the mafia will do tonight, but since I can’t act on it it’s useless. With it posted their actions will take it into consideration and be more random and harder to predict.

I also suspect I’m going to be killed by one side, the other or an outraged poster off-list.

If anyone thinks this information should not be posted for whatever reason, please let say so in the next hour or so. I’ll let some more players get online before I post.
[/QUOTE]

I’m interested in seeing your notes. Are you still planning on posting them?

1313

[QUOTE=Rachm Qoch]
Not necessarily trying to stay low – I would suppose that most mafia are trying hard not to look scummy by posting more often. Post counts don’t really tell me much unless someone’s neck is in the noose.

[/QUOTE]

This is my feeling as well. DiggitCamara wants to make a lot of my lack of posting, and that when I do post, there’s not a lot of content in my posts. However, that could easily be explained by not having anything to say. I feel as though it appears suspicious to not post constantly- but if I don’t have anything to add, what’s the point?

It seems to me that the Mafia have the upper hand at this point, and they seem to be driving the game, as it were. What’s more suspicious- people who only post when they have something to say, or people who constantly post in an attempt to make someone else constantly defend themselves?

That said, I don’t think I’m all that suspicious of DiggitCamara. While I think it’s kind of weird that he’s constantly trying to set me up, I kinda think that’s because he really suspects me. I think that if he were Mafia, he’d have others backing him up more strenuously. If I end up getting lynched, and it turns out I’m Town, he’s screwed, since he’s so vocal in lynching me.

I’m not sure what to think about Fluiddruid. I think there’s a good amount of evidence which would indicate guilt, but I’m wary of going for the obvious choice. Our track record right now sucks, and it seems like we’re getting down to the point where we could easily lose through attrition.

Of the rest of the peanut gallery, the one I’m least likely to trust, at this point, is Blaster Master. I can’t put my finger on it, just yet, but throughout the entire game, he’s pinged my ScumMeter. My suspicions aren’t concrete enough just yet to make any sort of formal accusation, however.

1314

[QUOTE=CaerieD]
I’m interested in seeing your notes. Are you still planning on posting them?
[/QUOTE]
Oh why not - since there wasn’t any interest I was wondering about whether or not to post this, as it will probably get me killed tonight, but I think it needs to be said. My plans for yesterday were:
[list=a]
[li]get** fluiddruid** lynched because he’s scum[/li][li]screw up the mafia kill that night.[/li][/list] Part a failed, and I suspected it would as I didn’t trust several of the people on the fluiddruid bandwagon not to switch votes to any available target, and several of the remaining votes not to go for a more tempting offer. When Lightnin’ offered Projammer up - the survivor of the day before’s town .v.town - of course, they switched.

Part b I think may have worked. I spent the day acting as mafia-bait.
[list=a]
[li]Revealed past experience of the game[/li][li]Went straight after fluid (assuming that was what got Kyrie killed)[/li][li]Posted prolifically (assuming that was what got NAF killed)[/li][li]Tried to come off as a possible town leader/someone who wouldn’t jump on bandwagons. [/li][li]Chose a disagreeing poster and went for them relentlessly (sorry CaerieD, you were convenient, and I don’t trust you anyway).[/li][/list]Why? Because I hoped to draw both the mafia kill and the doctor’s protect onto the same target, nullifying their kill without risking the doctor. I think it worked.

Why point this out? Because this trick only works once. If it worked, it gained the town a night. We won’t gain another one unless the nightwatchman gets lucky. And by the way, I really think the Doctor should self-protect tonight.

The unexpected side benefit of all this is that it has routed out several people who kept asking if the Doctor self-protected last night, information that would only be of use to the mafia, as only they know who they tried to hit. Without knowing who they tried to hit, debating who the Doctor protected, and therefore whether the mafia know who they are, is useless. Intriguing how several of them also neglect to consider the chance the nightwatchman got lucky or the mafia recruited. Might make you think they have information the rest of us don’t.

(By the way, to the mafia out there: if you did try to kill me last night: SUCKERS!!! :cool: )
(If not, that was a lot of wasted effort)

I’m going to drop back to a sane level of posting now I’m afraid. I still think fluiddruid is scum, but I would like very much to make sure that whoever gets lynched today really is scum because if Plan B worked it took too much setting up to go through again.

1315

Millet the Frail says “Fluid hopes that when she is killed, SCL will fall to the bottom of our lists because she was set up by a Mafia member.”

So I am suspicious enough of someone to hold my vote there for three days, and that makes me mafai? I think you need to choose another line of reasoning, because that one makes you look not only scummy, but scared scummy.

1316

[QUOTE=tirial]
[snip]
The unexpected side benefit of all this is that it has routed out several people who kept asking if the Doctor self-protected last night, information that would only be of use to the mafia, as only they know who they tried to hit. Without knowing who they tried to hit, debating who the Doctor protected, and therefore whether the mafia know who they are, is useless. Intriguing how several of them also neglect to consider the chance the nightwatchman got lucky or the mafia recruited. Might make you think they have information the rest of us don’t.
[snip]
[/QUOTE]

[Bolding mine]

Very interesting idea there. I hadn’t thought to look at those who were asking about that. Just casually looking back, I see that SnakesCatLady, Blaster Master, DiggitCamara, Lemur866, and Idle Thoughts commented on that at various points. SCL simply assumed that someone had been protected by the Doctor before the discussion really began, with the other four discussing the possibilities and likelihood of various scenarios. None of that discussion jumps out as particularly scummy to me, though, and I think I missed several posters besides.

Would you be willing to point to some posts that illustrate what you’re talking about here?

1317

Over in the Game 2 commentary thread, it appears that nesta’s use of “lynch” in that game when discussing a night kill was indeed what set MonkeyMensch on her trail.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8554072&postcount=365

I still maintain that MonkeyMensch got lucky, and that consistently using such an approach will contribute to the deaths of innocents.

1318

Wow. I guess I’m just not cut out for this game. I said something celebrating that no townie died and that gets twisted into an admission of guilt.

1319

[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
Wow. I guess I’m just not cut out for this game. I said something celebrating that no townie died and that gets twisted into an admission of guilt.
[/QUOTE]

This is Mafia. Say “hi” and it’ll be twisted into an admission of guilt. :smiley:

Like I said, I’m not seeing anything scummy in that exchange, either on your part or anyone else’s, but I’d like to hear more from tirial on it. Maybe I misunderstood, or she’s seeing something the rest of us haven’t.

1320

Hi.