It is the Village Green at dawn. A grue is here. The townspeople are here.
Dusk falls at 7:00 p.m. my time on Wednesday.
Again!?
How can a grue be here at dawn? They don’t like light!
Another no-kill night? Yippee!
Well that’s downright unsettlin’. Two nights in a row, and for the reasons I’ve mentioned before I can’t believe the mafia would be dumb enough to waste a recruit. Hmm…
You know what? I think they’ve found the doctor and he’s self-protecting. I’m bad at math, but it seems like the single most likely way we could get two no-kill nights in a row.
At least that seems right. I don’t think we have any unambiguous townies, so I doubt the doc would be able to precisely guess who the mob was after, unless he or she chose someone like tirial who’d just done a lot of analysis during the day.
So either the doc chose randomly and got lucky twice, chose him/herself and got lucky twice, combined those two somehow, was only involved on one of the two nights, or wasn’t involved at all.
Alternate possibilities are the watchman blocking a kill (unlikely, but certainly possible), a recruitment happening one night (I doubt it), or the mafia choosing not to kill anyone. (I **think **they can do that, right?)
The latter is silly. They’ve done quite well for themselves so far, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t press the advantage by either killing someone who’s good at analyzing or killing someone who hasn’t participated a lot, and won’t give the town much to go on. Either way, you’re getting the most value from the kill.
I think I’m covering all the possibilities… have I missed something? In any event, I’d really like to hear other people’s opinions on how the mob might be playing at this point. We did well yesterday, but I think that it’s really important for us to consider every possible mob strategy we can come up with; a lot of the players are veterans at this point, and I can’t help but think that “Ganging up or getting innocents hanged = mob, not = town” model really isn’t going to win the game for us.
Okay, let’s think this out now. What are all the cases this could be?
It could be:
(A) The night before this one, the Night Watchman was the reason why it was a no-kill and tonight he/she is the reason it’s a no-kill again.
(B) The night before this one was a mafia recruit. That means that today probably wasn’t since they only have one (and, vica versa, if tonight was one, the night before this one wasn’t). Either way, that would be the case and that makes me feel good that something is putting a wrench in the mafia’s plans.
© The night before this one, the Doc had protected him/herself and the mafia tried hitting them. The case COULD be, then, (and seems to make the most sense) that the mafia, JUST TO BE SURE, tried hitting them again. If this is the case, then they are now confirmed who the either the Doc or a DoGooder is (See F), probably.
(D) It was a mixture of two pro-town things. Namely: night before last the Night Watchman was right and the mafia changed/tried other targets and this night was the Doc or night before last the Doc protected themselves and the mafia changed/tried other targets and it just so happens that the Night Watchman made the same this time.
(E) The mafia tried recruiting the night before last and the person was a DoGooder (so it failed). So they then tried someone else (and were successful)
(F) The mafia tried recruiting the night before last and the person was a DoGooder (so it failed). So they then tried the same person again (just to be sure it was probably not the Night Watchman) and found again, they could not recruit (see similiar situation in C).
and finally
G, A combo of the DoGooder recruiting attempt (night before or this night) and save by a protown role.
Now A is possible (really, they are all possible), but it just doesn’t feel right. I think the odds are pretty slim for that (however I could be wrong).
E and G also feel wrong. I doubt G would be the case because it doesn’t make sense that they’d try to recruit but, the next night, not do it again.
and E strikes me as being foolish a bit. If I were scum and I made a hit and it failed…I’d try the same hit the next night just to make sure. And if that person was, again, saved, then I’d have pretty much surity that that person was either a DoGooder or the self-protecting Doctor. So I doubt they’d change targets.
That leaves B, C, D, and F.
D, again, like A, just seems too coincidental. I mean, hey, if it’s the case, that’s great! Mean’s we’re a force to be reckoned with. But in this game I’m not going to be optimistic too much and always think the worst possible case.
C and F are both equal in stature, just with different roles. I think they make the most sense of them all. It stands to reason that they tried to kill someone off night before last and were unsuccessful, that they’d try the same target again, just to make sure.
And, of course, there’s B…which has a good chance of being the case too, although I don’t feel as strong as C or F. However, I won’t count it out and hope nobody else will either. It’s very possible a recruitment took place…especially with killing off one of their own the last day.
Dunno if that helps anyone by laying it all out there like that…but it might. So based on what I said all in here, I think either C/F or B was the case last night.
Question for Gadarene: When the whole game is done with, will you reveal what the cases were each no-kill night?
Idle Thoughts, this is the first time I’ve played, so I’m not as well-versed in strategy as some of the other players, but wouldn’t it be almost inexcusably dim for the mafia to recruit at this point? I thought that there were only three cases when mafia were supposed to recruit:
a) When the next-to-last mobster has been lynched, the one remaining player should recruit that night.
b) If a high-profile power role has been confirmed during the day (doctor, detective, especially mason).
c) If the recruitment would give the mafia a 51% advantage or better, instantly winning the game.
This has been mentioned a few times, and even though it seems more logical that a recruitment occured or was attempted on at least one night, I somehow can’t imagine a situation outside of those three where recruiting would be highly beneficial to the mob. At this point, all recruiting would do is give us more time to spot mafia tells in the new recruitee.
Oh, while we’re all here, could I ask what people think of Rachm, Hal and Millit? Rachm I’m waffling on; could be scummy, could be town. Since we have an awful record of lynching innocents, I’m not too keen on making something of what’s probably nothing.
The problem is, for some reason I just can’t get a good read on millit, and I honestly forgot that Hal was even played.
That should be* playing*, not played
Rachm Qoch and Millet the Frail haven’t really set off my scumdar, but Hal Briston has. He voted for NAF1138 on Day 1, then unvoted him and voted for Come to the Dark Side…. He has not voted for Come to the Dark Side… since then, but voted for confirmed townies on Days 2 and 3. He did vote for fluiddruid on Day 4, but he did so very late in the day. Did he find out Come to the Dark Side… was also mafia during Night 1?
I would also like to hear opinions on CaerieD, Come to the Dark SIde… and Lightnin’. I realize **CaerieD **is out of town, so I’m going to hold off on outlining my suspicions of her until her return - however, she is my main suspect at the moment.
Well, as I said in this post, I knew my chances were good that at least one of the top four people I was most suspicious off was scum. All of them? I very much doubt it. Even I don’t think I’m that close to being good. Three of them? Maybe…I again, odds are no. Maybe two of them are, but if that is the case, fluiddruid was one so I no longer am as suspicious of CaerieD or Millit the Frail (or tirial either, for that matter) as I was before.
Instead, I really need to turn my attention to people I’ve never really looked closely yet…starting from my lesser suspected players and going down. I don’t really trust anyone anymore at this point. I also have, after the last day and some of my past posts and reasons given during that, new suspicions that are slightly rising.
Taking a step back, I’m finding it hard to find a reason why the town should even try and determine why there was no kill two nights in a row. We have no outed power roles. From my world view, all of the possibilities are swimming around in cloud of “what if” that follows me arond. Too much discussion on that topic can risk outing power roles or just bog us down with a lot of hypotheticals that we won’t be able to prove or disprove. I don’t think such an environment is good for the town. Are we really hoping that scum will slip up and tell us what happened while we’re all trying to guess what happened?
Not the case, but it raises an interesting point that I hadn’t considered before. Hey Gadarene – were all mafia members identifed to each other during the game setup, or did they have to wait until the first night to see who their allies were? I always assumed that it was the former, but if it’s the latter, then there may be some interesting voting patterns to be discerned.
As for DarkSideCookies, I’m still very suspicious – there have just been better targets the past few days.
Also, Idle Thoughts – your E and F scenarios aren’t possible. The scum only have one recruit attempt, and if that attempt is blocked then woohoo, they lose it.
Now then, since it seems people aren’t noticing my participation, let me make sure this doesn’t go unnoticed:
Don’t miss what I said in Post #1340!
I know that I said we should be looking at the low-notice players if fluiddruid turned out to be town, but I can’t help but think that the scum are playing things close to the vest.
Huh…interesting…here are the top posting players at the moment:
tirial 108
Idle Thoughts 107
DiggitCamara 105
SnakesCatLady 98
Now, when I was running this theory through my head, I was thinking “low-posting players – like tirial”. How the hell I’m getting almost no read on him after 108 posts is beyond me.
While I’m getting a “town” read from Idle Thoughts and DiggitCamara, SnakesCatLady has been pinging as scum more and more to me lately. That makes the top four reads as two townies, one scum and one unknown – looks like my theory might need a little work.
Do I get to hear why you think I am scum?
Snipped.
Well, I don’t know about anyone else but I’m just trying to work it out in my head at guessing what might be the case. I don’t see how it would force any power roles to the surface or do anything, much, but possibly give some insight on if they recruted at all or not…which yes, WOULD make a difference in my line of reasonings.
Snipped.
Oh yeah? Well, chalk up a second thing I didn’t notice then, in the rules. I mean, I DID read them, but I guess i failed to see this part. It seems, I guess, Omi No Kami didn’t as well.
Sorry. :o
Dammit, sorry, I read OMK’s post wrong before and see now that he’s, in no way, referring to that.
Sorry again. :smack:
Well, I probably shouldn’t say this but, anyway, here goes nothing:
I think I know what happened:
- Scum tried to kill (yesterday) and were blocked
- Scum failed to kill.
- During the last day we discussed all possibilities
There it should have ended. However, there was one post (no, I’m not going to point it out yet). And thus the list continues:
- Scum noticed said post and concluded (probably correctly) that the doctor had unwittingly exposed him/herself
- Scum took their chance and recruited said poster
Having said that, I can only hope I guessed incorrectly as to the identity of our ex-doctor (and/or that the mafia made the same guess I made and failed)