Let’s add to that:
So, without further ado: vote Lightnin’
Yeah, that does make a certain amount of sense. That the mafia could have tried the first night, gotten blocked, and assumed that person they tried to kill off was the Doctor and then recruited said person (that they know who was) after said person said something fishy in here the last day that (in their minds) confirmed that he/she was the Doc.
Only question is…what is that post? What are you seeing that the rest of us don’t see, DiggitCamara?
I understand your need to keep secret in the case you are mistaken (either about the person being the Doc OR the mafia recruiting), but, then again, you could also be scum yourself.
Me, I’m still focus on the people I’ve been suspicious of but lesser so. Namely SnakesCatLady and Rachm Qoch for many reasons I’ve given throughout this topic. Both are pinging my meter strongly (and I also have read that I’m not the only one whose radar has been tripped by either of these two) and I’m pretty sure both are scummy or at least one is. But that doesn’t matter since I can only vote for one at a time anyway…so the question is, which one would I want to vote for?
… I thought it best to just whet people’s curiosity so they comb through the thread themselves. Maybe they will finger the same person for themselves. And, like you said, if I’m wrong about the recruiting bit, I don’t want to make it easier for the scum to spot the doctor themselves. Finally: I wouldn’t want to prompt a lynch movement on the former doctor (if my theory is correct), since (s)he won’t really help Mafia much, anyhow.
Well yeah. But don’t blame me for still staying wary. For all I know you could be scum yourself trying to plant the seed of doubt so that if or when the Doc ever has to make a role claim, we’ll all think s/he’ve might have been recruited when in fact, they weren’t. It’d be pretty ingenius. 
No problem. I’d probably feel the same way.
However, if I’m still “alive” at the moment that roleclaim happens, I’ll be sure to point out whether or not my suspicions were confirmed (or, at least, I’ll point out what post I mean).
And if I’m not still “alive” the point will be moot, since you’ll already know my allegiance 
Holy SHIT. I think I just found the post DiggitCamara was talking about.
Huh.
I just spent the last half hour not only reading the last 5 or 6 pages of this thread, but also some earlier ones and read carefully over any one fluiddruid made.
And, man, have some very, very, very, very, very, very, interesting things shot out at me.
However it is now very late here and day will be lasting for quite awhile. I’ll bring all of my observations and thoughts to light tomorrow (however, like DiggitCamara, I don’t think I’ll be revealing the post or the poster (yet) in question. For one, I’m not really sure and still wary of everyone myself. For two, I think I need just a bit more observation at this point).
OK, well, we’re a day up. (I’m grabbing 5 minutes so this will be short)
I don’t think we can consider last night alone, we need to look at the day previously. I think fluiddruid’s slip indicated it was an “attempted kill” on Day 3 Night. I think my strategy on that night worked (create an obvious target so the doc block and mafia kill end up on the same person).
Last Night? I have no idea.
Snipped and bolding and bigger font mine.
Juh?
What makes you so sure that they went after you the first time?
Read the first paragraph in my post…
Read post 1314 for details of said strategy to screw over mafia without exposing the doc. And if you missed this, note that fluiddruid’s posts get more irate after that, and (s)he? starts trying to head off my next line of investigation. P1323 indicates that fluiddruid doesn’t like me looking at who was digging into the doctor protect. The most obvious candidate there is lemur866, so I’m going to be starting there for today and branching out.
Other observations:
Blastermaster and CaerieD are close to the top of my scum list. On Day one, they were the final two votes for percypercy (saving Lightnin or Projammer), and on Day 3 their swing to Projammer (a bandwagon started by Lightnin’) saved fluiddruid. Note their celebrations last night don’t include any mention of the fact they saved fluiddruid at the town’s expense the day before.
Lightnin’ is up there, but mainly for his rush vote attempt on Projammer. Trying to close the day early is either really bad play, or a mafia tell. Either way it benefits mafia, not masons or town. I have trouble believing that - no matter how new they are - after two days in this game a player doesn’t know why that is a bad idea.
Lemur866 makes my list for his attempts to investigate what the Doctor did the night before in detail - including repeated questions on whether he self-protected. There is no way this benefits anyone but the mafia.
Hal Briston is on my list for his voting patterns. From the point of veiw of a paranoid townie, it is possible his repeated requests P1340 & 1414 to investigate low post count posters are a double bluff. Hal, have you posted any analysis of low-post count posters? As you are aware I have been looking at this, but there isn’t a lot to work with, by definition. If you’ve found any leads, please share them.
P1415 BTW, for the third time this thread, I am a girl. Female over here. <Waves>.
This is pretty much the same conclusion I’ve come to, as well. It’s why I voted on fluiddruid yesterday, even though I’m normally loathe to jump on a bandwagon. Going over the past votes, CaerieD stuck out like a sore thumb, and her voting pattern implicated fluiddruid. We need to get the scum out, even if it means going for the easy votes, so I went with the flow. Today, however, it’s time to vote CaerieD.
Have you posted your preference in the thread asking for a male/female indicator on user profiles?
Lightnin’, CaerieD’s voting record and defense of fluiddruid is one of the reasons I suspect her, but your voting record isn’t any better. Since each of you has one vote right now, why should I vote for her instead of you? I have some reasons of my own; I would like to see if yours agree with mine.
Just to make a quick point.
There was a vote swing on day 3 to save fluiddruid. If we had a confirmed vote swing on day 1, I wouldn’t have bet on a repetition of the pattern. However, since we have a confirmed vote swing on day 3, I think we can apply the same reasoning to day 1.
My mistake on day 2 was to try to ferret out who exactly was responsible for the vote swing on day 1. The problem is, it may be initiated by a mafia representative but may have unwitting help from townies (or vice versa). However, once we identify who was the beneficiary of a vote swing we have certainty of a confirmed scum.
On day 3 fluiddruid was saved by the vote swing.
On day 1 Lightnin’ was saved by the vote swing.
(btw: congrats on the fluiddruid kill, tirial)
Why don’t I get congrats? I voted for fluiddruid three days in a row!
… and, I hope you won’t be the last to find it. However, it would be funny if we regard different posts to be relevant…
Sorry, but I agree with her night posts… she pretty much had to herd us into that direction.
And she was the one who found the most compelling argument: that fluiddruid was our Detective’s “breadcrumb”. (Hey, it convinced me)
I was out all day yesterday, so I’m just now getting to go over things. First of all, yay town! Through our own designs or not, we’ve gone through two nights without townie blood being shed. And at least one of them was not a recruitment. The first was almost certainly not, as we can see from fluiddruid’s slip-up.
Now, I’ve tried going over the last day’s posts, and honestly, I’m not finding any sort of smoking gun or slip-up. Maybe I’m just really dense, but I’ve spent more than a half hour on it and haven’t picked up on much of anything. And, for obvious reasons, it’s not going to be pointed out to me. In any case, I have strong town feelings about both Diggit and Idle, so for now I’ll take a cue from you.
Also…maybe today is the day when we get him? Vote Lightnin’
D’oh. What I mean is that I’ll take my cues from them. Not any specific cue.
Also, I updated the spreadsheet and bolded every vote for our known Mafia, fluiddruid.
Thanks for reminding me. I updated my chart this afternoon. I still can’t find a way of manking the formatting come out well when I post it however.
The below is ordered by number of votes for townies descending (no dups), then votes for townies descending (all votes). Votes are T = town, S = Scum, U = Unknown. (Please scroll left for totals.)
1 2 3 4 Total (no dups) Individual
CaerieD Omi+un, percy proj+un, dnoo+un NO SCL+un, Proj fluiddruid 3T + 1S + 2U 4T + 1s + 2U
HalB NAF+un, Cookies dnooman Projammer fluiddruid 3T + 1S + 1U
Lightnin Diggit+un, NAF dnooman Projammer fluiddruid 3T + 1S + 1U
Blaster SCL+un, Idle+un, percy CaerieD fluid+un, Proj Lightnin' fluid 2T + 1S + 4U 2T + 2S + 4U
Diggit Cookies+ un, percy dnooman Fluiddruid Lightnin' 2T + 1S + 2U
Lemur866 dnooman+un,CaerieD SCL, Projammer fluiddruid 2T + 1S + 2U
tirial percy, proj+un, Lightnin+un fluid fluiddruid 2T + 1S + 1U 2T + 2S + 1U
Cookies nesta Projammer Projammer fluiddruid 1T + 1S + 1U 2T + 1S + 1U
Millit Lightnin, Projammer Projammer fluiddruid 1T + 1S + 1U 2T + 1S + 1U
nesta Cookies+un,Projammer Projammer Fluiddruid CaerieD 1T + 1S + 2U 2T + 1S + 2U
SCL Lightnin+un, Diggit proj+un, fluid fluid fluiddruid 1T + 1S + 2U 1T + 3S + 2U
RachM Omi No K, Projammer fluidruid fluiddruid 1T + 1S + 1U 1T + 2S + 1U
Idle Millit+un, Light+un, Mill dnooman fluid fluid+un,CarieD 1T + 1S + 3U 1T + 2S + 4U
Omi no K fluid+un, Kyrie+un no vote fluid+un fluiddruid 1T + 1S 1T + 3S
Night State Naf Kyrie no kill no kill
Fluidruid Naf (3) + unvote, percy, Kyrie, dnooman Projammer SCL 5T
Note I forgot to update Fluiddruid because the scum is dead, and I moved the row to the bottom of the chart :smack: . Make that 5T +1U and add a vote for SnakesCatLady on day 4.
These are out of order, but it makes more sense to me this way:
A: The probability of Watchman block is 1/6, so the probability of a Watchman block on two consecutive nights is 1/6 * 1/6 or 2.78%.
D: The probabilty of a Doctor block is 1/10 or 1/11, depending on if there were originally 4 or 5 mafia at game start. Assuming a worst-case scenario for the mafia, the probability of a WD or DW block on consecutive nights is 2*(1/6 * 1/10) or 3.33%.
C: The ratio of W/D blocks is in the neighborhood of (1/6)/(1/10) or 1.67. I.e., a Watchman block for any particular night is a little more than one and a half times more probable than a Doc block. So, assuming for a moment that the night before last was a block, the mafia going back and attempting a hit on the same individual just to determine if he was doctor wouldn’t really make sense, as no real determination could be gathered from such a sequence of events that are the least probable. It also raises the question: if the mafia actually could make a sound determination as to who the Doctor is in such a manner, would it make sense for them to waste a hit just to do so? Maybe so if they are planning to recruit the Doctor on a subsequent night. But as mentioned, the point is moot since they are likely to make the wrong conclusion than the right one here. Things are different of course if things aren’t random: if they happen to correctly guess who the doc is and then try to recruit him.
If the doc self-protects one night, and protects someone else the other night, the probability of two consecutive Doc blocks is in the neighborhood of (1/10)*(1/15) or 0.67%, since he knows the status of himself one night (~1/10) but not the second (1/15). The probability of two consecutive Doc blocks, where the doc is not self protecting, is (1/15)^2 or 0.44%
If only one attempt at a recruit is allowed regardless of the outcome of the attempt, E and F are not possible.
G: If the mafia decide to recruit, the probability of picking the Do-Gooder is 1/10 or 1/11. So, the probability of a combination of a Do-Gooder block and watchman block is in the same as B above, ie in the neighborhood of 3.33%. The probability of a combination of a Do-Gooder block and Doc block would be twice that of a self-protected Doc/Doc block, i.e. in the neighborhood of 2*(1/10)^2, or 2%
I’m not sure how you would go about trying to quantify other specific scenarios such as B above, a “no kill” decision, or other combinations of a successful recruit and some other event. But you can make an accurate estimate of the combined probabilities of all other events not quantified above: 100-(2.78+3.33+0.67+0.44+3.33+2) or 87.45%
These numbers are slightly dependant upon the number of mafia originally in the game, but the overall relative probabilties of these different events won’t change.