Thanks for reminding me. I updated my chart this afternoon. I still can’t find a way of manking the formatting come out well when I post it however.
The below is ordered by number of votes for townies descending (no dups), then votes for townies descending (all votes). Votes are T = town, S = Scum, U = Unknown. (Please scroll left for totals.)
You mean “scroll right,” no? Anyway, I like how you’ve made totals for everyone; it satisfies my need for hard data.
I see that the very suspicious Lightnin’ and CaerieD are at the top, along with Hal, who’s been picking up gradual suspicion. Hmmm.
Now, I might have thought that scum would hide better than that by trying to throw some votes toward other scum, but fluiddruid’s voting record shows that she did otherwise. Maybe we’ve found a pretty good scum tell: Voting for townies!
P1415 BTW, for the third time this thread, I am a girl. Female over here. <Waves>.
How YOU doin’? 
The only players who didn’t vote for fluiddruid were BlasterMaster & Diggit Camera, who voted for Lightnin’, Idle Thoughts & nesta, who voted for CaerieD, and of course fluiddruid, who voted for me. Hal Briston did vote for fluiddruid but did so very late in the day, as did CaerieD. Rachm Quom was the last to cast a vote for fluiddruid.
Okay.
First of all, I don’t believe that CaerieD or Millit the Frail are scummy anymore. They still might be and they are still on my suspicion and “to watch” list…but they have moved very, very far down on it due to fluiddruid being scum. It’s possible that one of the nights the mafia recruited one of the two…but again, I really wouldn’t know why they’d (the mafia) do this.
It stands to reason that the scummy players wouldn’t make it easier to find the others if one was ever found. So I wouldn’t doubt that one of the players who voted for fluiddruid in the end was also scum. However that is pretty apparent so I’d go even farther to say that I would bet a fellow scum was voting for a fellow scum the entire time, as it’s a good throw off.
Who has been doing this so far that I’ve noticed? One of the two I’m most suspicious of now: SnakesCatLady. She has voted for fluiddruid two times in this game, yeah. But I think that’s just as much of a tell as not voting for her. Plus, Day one, she never vote at all. Would the mafia always NOT vote for their fellow teammates? I doubt it. And past experience has shown me that this isn’t the case either. I think that it’s probable to think that, to be clever, two scums have been fighting it out all long in here. And while this has been true in many cases, it’s only been the case for one of whom I’m suspicious of right now.
Plus, I keep going back to this post by tirial.
The unexpected side benefit of all this is that it has routed out several people who kept asking if the Doctor self-protected last night, information that would only be of use to the mafia, as only they know who they tried to hit. Without knowing who they tried to hit, debating who the Doctor protected, and therefore whether the mafia know who they are, is useless. Intriguing how several of them also neglect to consider the chance the nightwatchman got lucky or the mafia recruited. Might make you think they have information the rest of us don’t.
There were many who did this, myself included. However some of them (myself included again) mostly was just trying to clarify things. SCL was also one of these who did that…and was the ONLY one to automatically assume that the first no kill was the Doc. Something that the quote above from tirial points out would only give the advantange to scum for knowing.
Just seems very shady to me.
Idle Thoughts, you have some of your facts wrong. I did not vote for fluiddruid on two days, I voted for her on Days 2, 3 and 4. As far as not voting on Day 1, I voted for Lightnin’, unvoted him and voted for Diggit Camera. So your statement that I didn’t vote on Day 1 is also incorrect.
If you are going to suspect me, and try to get others to do so, at least have your facts straight.
As for the first no-kill night, in the excitement of seeing that no townies had died in the night I just assumed it was the Doctor protecting one of us. It was called to my attention that the Doctor protecting someone was not the only way a no kill night would have resulted, and that was the end of it as far as I was concerned. I have not spent lots of time and effort trying to figure out how we got by on two nights with no kills. I have been concentrating more on trying to figure out how to not kill any more townies during the day.
<snip>
Who has been doing this so far that I’ve noticed? One of the two I’m most suspicious of now: SnakesCatLady. She has voted for fluiddruid two times in this game, yeah. But I think that’s just as much of a tell as not voting for her. Plus, Day one, she never vote at all. Would the mafia always NOT vote for their fellow teammates? I doubt it. And past experience has shown me that this isn’t the case either. I think that it’s probable to think that, to be clever, two scums have been fighting it out all long in here. And while this has been true in many cases, it’s only been the case for one of whom I’m suspicious of right now.
The question, for me, that says it all, is this: Why did fluiddruid make her big case against SnakesCatLady? Why SCL, out of all players?
First case: SCL is a townie.
If fluid were to accuse a townie (remember, she has known who is who all along), why not build a case against someone who hasn’t looked so suspicious? After all, once fluid died, we would probably assume that her target was town, and she wouldn’t want to give us any info that would be useful, right?
Second case: SCL is scum.
Yesterday I posited that fluiddruid and SnakesCatLady might be Mafia fighting with each other. It seemed really strange that fluiddruid, assuming that she was not long for this world, would build a huge case against SCL, if she were town. Fluiddruid would be afraid of confirming SCL as a townie. By setting up SCL and then being revealed as Mafia, fluid may have been trying to deflect attention from SCL.
Why SCL, then out of all possible Mafia? Well, she had been voting for fluid, so there was a good back-and-forth antagonism thing going on. Also, she had attracted some suspicion from the town and may have needed the help more than some other Mafia members.
As for SCL’s votes for fluid, none of them came at a time when it counted. Am I right there?
What do others think? I’m glad to hear I’m not so scummy-looking anymore. I’ve become very paranoid about what I say, and I’ve even built up a case for myself being scum and then come up with ways to refute it. Just in case I need a defense in the future. Is that crazy? I’m sure it is. Ah, well.
Idle Thoughts, you have some of your facts wrong. I did not vote for fluiddruid on two days, I voted for her on Days 2, 3 and 4. As far as not voting on Day 1, I voted for Lightnin’, unvoted him and voted for Diggit Camera. So your statement that I didn’t vote on Day 1 is also incorrect.
You’re right, I meant to say three times. I’m sorry. I forgot that we’re on the fifth day and not the fourth. 
However, the reasons given in my last post for suspecting you so highly was that you had voted for her that many times. So really, since you corrected that it was actually THREE times and not two (which I thought alone was shady) only makes me even MORE suspicious of you.
And about voting day one. Again, you’re right. I was wrong.
Unfortunatly for you, though, it does nothing to lessen my thoughts about you.
As for the first no-kill night, in the excitement of seeing that no townies had died in the night I just assumed it was the Doctor protecting one of us. It was called to my attention that the Doctor protecting someone was not the only way a no kill night would have resulted, and that was the end of it as far as I was concerned. I have not spent lots of time and effort trying to figure out how we got by on two nights with no kills. I have been concentrating more on trying to figure out how to not kill any more townies during the day.
Yeah, yeah. But everyone would say that and give that as an explanation. I don’t see why I should accept or believe that what you say here really was the case anymore than I’d take what anyone said for 100 percent certainty.
And on preview: Millit the Frail, you hit the nail on the head. You may be scum and you may not be but I’m far more suspicious of SCL right now and, in my own mind, this made so much sense already. Seeing someone else type it all out like that. It’s like fluiddruid, knowing her days were numbered after being left as a crumb by the detective, tried her best (in my opinion) to throw everyone else off another scum player.
Vote SnakesCatLady (and her little cats too)
The question, for me, that says it all, is this: Why did fluiddruid make her big case against SnakesCatLady? Why SCL, out of all players?
(snip)
One point: fluiddruid’s big defense post should be absolutely discarted by us.
Why? If we are correct, the scum entered the day thinking they’d have to sacrifice fluiddruid anyhow. If that assumption is correct, her big “defense” was quite likely composed by the scum in toto.
And, therefore, designed to obfuscate, confuse and cloud all issues that could conceivably help townies.
By the by, I’m still undecided on CaerieD and Lightnin’, but in light of fluid’s identity I thought I’d refer everyone to Tirial’s evaluation of CaerieD’s kind of crappy Fluid defense: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8535965&postcount=1051
Why did fluiddruid go after me? I was the first person to vote for her.
I am totally confused as to why voting for the only scum we have nailed, not just once but three days in a row, is being seen as scummy.
Huh. I have to say, I’m getting a little warier of **Millit the Frail **as I review yesterday’s proceedings. Just as people started suspecting fluid, and right after she posted her first big “I think someone ELSE was the breadcrumb” pitch, Millit comes in with http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524738&postcount=913 . It could certainly have been an honest attempt to add to Lemur’s analysis, but it ends that “Well it looks like I’ve established that Person X is innocent with this post, so let’s look at other possibilities” line that always makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up when someone uses it in this game.
As for SCL’s votes for fluid, none of them came at a time when it counted. Am I right there?
What do others think? I’m glad to hear I’m not so scummy-looking anymore. I’ve become very paranoid about what I say, and I’ve even built up a case for myself being scum and then come up with ways to refute it. Just in case I need a defense in the future. Is that crazy? I’m sure it is. Ah, well.
I was the first to vote for fluiddruid on day 2, and no paid attention but went on to bandwagon dnooman (town) and Projammer (town), resulting in a random.org decision for dnooman . I was second to vote for fluiddruid on Day 3, and was again ignored in favor of lyinching another townie, Projammer. I was third to vote on Day 4, and there were a goodly number of players who jumped on that bandwagon late in the day.
Your vote for fluiddruid was after mine - did it count more than mine? What is this magic “time when it counted”?
Huh. I have to say, I’m getting a little warier of **Millit the Frail **as I review yesterday’s proceedings. Just as people started suspecting fluid, and right after she posted her first big “I think someone ELSE was the breadcrumb” pitch, Millit comes in with http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8524738&postcount=913 . It could certainly have been an honest attempt to add to Lemur’s analysis, but it ends that “Well it looks like I’ve established that Person X is innocent with this post, so let’s look at other possibilities” line that always makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up when someone uses it in this game.
Fair enough, but I held out on fluid for a while because I could see no evidence for her scumminess, other than the fact that she was the “obvious choice.” Also, I didn’t want to detract from Projammer and–especially–Lightnin’.
I really thought that Blaster Master was the breadcrumb at first because, well, I skimmed the thread and didn’t take my time, and, because of the awkward “anti-FOS.” I mean, say the Detective investigates someone and finds them pro-town–what kind of breadcrumb are they going to leave? The “anti-FOS” struck me very strongly as a way to try to say something positive about someone who came up town.
One point: fluiddruid’s big defense post should be absolutely discarted by us.
Why? If we are correct, the scum entered the day thinking they’d have to sacrifice fluiddruid anyhow. If that assumption is correct, her big “defense” was quite likely composed by the scum in toto.
And, therefore, designed to obfuscate, confuse and cloud all issues that could conceivably help townies.
Exactly. So WHY wouldn’t she know or they know we’d think that? Therefore pointing out that SCL was scum or putting suspicion on her would actually do the opposite of what she was claiming. That we’d all go “Oohhh no, then SCL most assuredly could not be scum.”
I say she told the truth there, just so we’d think otherwise (like you just said) and thus throw us completely off the trail.
And if you’re so very, very quick to say that’s the case, for certain (that nothing she said in her huge defense post should be taken seriously or relied upon by our own reasonings)…you’re either fooled completely (which is what they were hoping for) or you’re scummy yourself.
I don’t see how it can’t be very possible and even likely.
Okay, I’m back. Having just driven four hours, I’m going to need a bit to unwind/review what I’ve missed. I’ll have a post of some substance either in a few hours or first thing in the morning my time, depending on when my brain is capable of processing things once again.
Okay, I’m back. Having just driven four hours, I’m going to need a bit to unwind/review what I’ve missed. I’ll have a post of some substance either in a few hours or first thing in the morning my time, depending on when my brain is capable of processing things once again.
More or less same here. Been visiting family over the weekend (did a little posting from the in-laws last night), and there is no way I’m going to do anything on this board tonight that requires actual thought. I’ll catch up when I get back to work tomorrow.
The only players who didn’t vote for fluiddruid were BlasterMaster & Diggit Camera, who voted for Lightnin’, Idle Thoughts & nesta, who voted for CaerieD, and of course fluiddruid, who voted for me. Hal Briston did vote for fluiddruid but did so very late in the day, as did CaerieD. Rachm Quom was the last to cast a vote for fluiddruid.
FTR, I did vote for fluiddruid yesterday; IIRC, I was fourth… while we’re all uppity about correcting vote records. ![]()
While you’re the topic of discussion, as others have already beat me to mentioning fluiddruid’s FOS of you, I will simply say that I find that logic compelling. For reasons laid out previously, I found your vote for fluiddruid on day two suspicious, and when you add in her focused attempt at obfuscating your growing suspicion, it only looks worse for you. I’m not prepared to vote for you just yet, as I’m still highly suspicious of Lightnin’, and havent’ decided which of you two looks scummier (though, it is entirely possible that both of you are).
For that matter, Lightnin’, you have some ‘splainin’ to do. In post 1429, **tirial ** lays out an argument against CaerieD and me that is essentially entirely dependent on you being scum:
Blastermaster and CaerieD are close to the top of my scum list. On Day one, they were the final two votes for percypercy (saving Lightnin or Projammer), and on Day 3 their swing to Projammer (a bandwagon started by Lightnin’) saved fluiddruid. Note their celebrations last night don’t include any mention of the fact they saved fluiddruid at the town’s expense the day before.
To which you respond in post 1430:
This is pretty much the same conclusion I’ve come to, as well. It’s why I voted on fluiddruid yesterday, even though I’m normally loathe to jump on a bandwagon. Going over the past votes, CaerieD stuck out like a sore thumb, and her voting pattern implicated fluiddruid. We need to get the scum out, even if it means going for the easy votes, so I went with the flow. Today, however, it’s time to vote CaerieD.
{Color Removed}
So let’s get this straight: you agree with tirial that CaerieD and I are scum because our votes on day one saved you (assuming that scum might try to prevent a lynch against scum) AND that we also voted on the Projammer bandwagon which you started (assuming scum would start a bandwagon on a townie to save one of their own). So in essence, you agree with tirial that you’re scum…?
So what does this lead me to believe? Knowing that you were one of the top suspects coming into today, you were SO eager to defelect suspicion elsewhere, that you didn’t pay enough attention to the reasoning and just picked another highly suspected name that had a reasonable case you could throw your vote onto. Before the day started, I had figured that **CaerieD ** and you would probably be the two most likely lynchees, hence your vote. However, if you’re both scum, I can’t see one of you throwing the other under the bus like that. Thus, I’m inclined to believe that only one between you and CaerieD are in fact scum, and based on this, I’m inclined to believe that’s you. OTOH, it could be a similar attempt at a bluff (like what it looks like fluiddruid did with SCL) and your act is a perfect cover for it… so maybe that doesn’t clear CaerieD, I’ll have to give it more thought.
All I can say is that I am quite sure fluiddruid is having a good laugh at the expense of the townies right now. She may no longer be in the game, but if you kill off enough townies she still wins!
And my apologies, Blaster Master, you are correct; I read my notes wrong.