Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

[CaerieD]

[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
I think what may have gotten Kyrie killed was the comment she made when she voted for fluiddruid - something along the lines of “there is a vote I can get behind”. Until then, no one had paid attention to any of my votes.
[/QUOTE]

That very well could be. Additionally, since the Mafia would have known Projammer wasn’t scum and Kyrie had made remarks about thinking that Projammer was town, her lucky guesses in general probably put a big target over her head. At the time of her vote against fluiddruid she’d hit the nail on the head three times–dnooman, Projammer and fluiddruid. No one but the Mafia knew it, though. That much good guessing–though likely one was the breadcrumb–was probably the nail in her coffin. I’m still not sure about you, but I don’t think my reasoning for that vote was the best.

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=Lightnin’]

1. And no attempt to say that I’m not saying “I’m not scum” will ever be heard. As I’ve said, I use it as the basis of my own strategy, and I have never told anyone else to use it as part of theirs. (snip)

[/quote]

Fair enough.

@Lightnin'

2)Yeah, at first, I made the mistake of trying to defend myself, and apparently came off too strong. However, (and here’s the question you should be asking), why would a Mafia player become defensive? Mafia don’t have to defend themselves too strongly, as they’ve got teammates who can help with any explanation.

Again: Fair enough.

However, our only example as to how scum have to defend themselves comes from fluiddruid’s example. Teammates who help? Well, if they help too much, they’ll end up implicating themselves. And as to Mafia players becoming defensive? I think it’s a grand strategy! Look at several examples where people have simply backed off after strong statements! There has even been an instance where the Moderator(bow to mighty Gadarene) himself asked someone if he wanted to exit the game.

@Lightnin'

The first day, the Mafia hadn’t had a chance to organize. I think any strategy based on that day has to keep that in mind. I can’t help how others voted on that day- maybe they found someone else more suspicious?

On the first part: agreed.

The second one? Not so much. Look: my premise is that

1. You panicked
2. Your “scum-pals” tried to help

There’s evidence for both points. Especially for the first.

@Lightnin'

As for my “suspicious voting patterns”, I’m not the only person who has voted to lynch revealed Town players. My voting pattern doesn’t indicate any attempts to defend anyone, does it?

… True 'nuff. Most of us have made mistakes, identified wrong targets, etc. etc. But you haven’t added anything substantial to your posture.

@Lightnin'

My defensive posture to accusations? If a “defensive posture to accusations” is suspicious, why the hell would Mafia do it? They don’t need to defend themselves- they’ve got friends who would help. A better explanation might be that I’m getting really tired of having to explain this Every. Damn. Time.

@Diggit repeating his point

And as to Mafia players becoming defensive? I think it’s a grand strategy! Look at several examples where people have simply backed off after strong statements! There has even been an instance where the Moderator(bow to mighty Gadarene) himself asked someone if he wanted to exit the game.

@Lightnin-

As for my analysis being “almost non-existent”, I say bullshit. I’ve explained every one of my votes and FOS’s. What’s more, I was right about fluiddruid.

C’mon. My theory, like I said before, is that scum saw an irreversible trend and chose to sacrifice fluiddruid. There was no-one defending **fluiddruid ** on her final playing day (except for CaerieD, apparently, and **fluiddruid **herself).

Concerning both your votes and your FOS’, who’s defending himself? Why don’t you provide us with a summary?

@Lightnin'

You’ve never been a frontrunner for lynching, have you? You haven’t been attacked as consistently as I have, have you?

On Day One: I was the first frontrunner. Was I worried? Nah.

Have I been attacked as consistently as you have? Nope.

[SnakesCatLady]

Have we heard from nesta since Day 5 started? I went back and looked but that doesn’t mean I didn’t miss something.

[DiggitCamara]

[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
Have we heard from nesta since Day 5 started? I went back and looked but that doesn’t mean I didn’t miss something.
[/QUOTE]

(sshhht! He’s running an undercover investigation of the events in this town!)

[CaerieD]

nesta hasn’t posted since #1379.

[nesta]

I’m here. I’m just not sure what I think about everyone at this point. I know, I know, I should post to try to get discussion going, but it seemed to be going without me, so I’ve been trying to figure out what I really think before posting just to post.

I’ve been wrong over and over, and I’d really like to have something solid to throw at someone. Soon, I promise.

[Idle_Thoughts]

[QUOTE=CaerieD]

I can’t believe I’m arguing with logic that has me “less likely to be scum”, but I suggest you rethink this, Idle Thoughts. It is entirely possible that you were correct in more than one case.
[/quote]

Oh, no worries. I’ve actually conceeded this. I know that someone of that group might still be scum (or has been recruited) and my suspicions still stand of them all in some way (some more than others actually still); but none are as high on my list as they were. They (and you) have actually fallen down to only low to mid-suspicion in my eyes. Meanwhile, others are growing.

SCL reads, in every post I’ve read since I voted for her, and in most posts before that (which led me to vote at all) as really scummy. They just strike me as something scum would so obviously say if they were trying to make someone believe they were town but knew that they couldn’t do it too well cause they were caught.

I know I’m town and I’m fairly certain tirial is town at this point (not too sure about Millit), but I wouldn’t bet the whole game on it.

Me either. Nobody is above suspicion in my mind. But I doubt I’m good enough to have guessed all four (if there are four but that seems to be the most common number shot around-well, three if they haven’t recruited yet; four again if they have) members. So it stands to reason that at least one or maybe two I was wrong about.

Kyrie only had one breadcrumb, and yet managed to be right in at least three instances–dnooman and Projammer were both town and fluiddruid was scum. At least two of those were lucky guesses, possibly all three if it turns out Blaster Master was the breadcrumb. If Kyrie could guess that well, it’s possible others could as well. Plus, as our trust of certain people grows, the likelihood of one of them ending up the recruit becomes higher.

I doubt BM was the crumb. His surity of fluiddruid (especially in post 816) all but told us she was scum. I think that’s what sealed his fate early and how the mafia figured he was the detective.

[Idle_Thoughts]

[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Ah! But she’d know we’d know she was scum and therefore she’d know we’d think she’d think we’d think she told the truth and would tell a lie to throw us off!

In other words: it’s a tipical case of trying to outguess the other side. We might get it right on one count but be completely off the track on the next count. Or vice versa. And it would keep our discussion mired on one post (which was crafted by scum for townies).

That way madness lies.
[/QUOTE]

:dubious:

[Gadarene]

Who wants a vote count?

[SnakesCatLady]

[QUOTE=CaerieD]

Frankly, after what happened on Day 3, I was hoping that the Mafia would kill me in the night and deprive the town of a red herring, but of course I’ve become a big enough target that this isn’t going to happen. My anti-strategical flailing drew far too much attention to me and, much like I’d theorized before, the Mafia aren’t going after those townies who have been accused by other townies. They can get our type during the day easily enough.

Judging by the stubbornness that’s been prevalent in this game so far, I imagine there’ll be a good bandwagon going against me on Day 5 if I survive this Day and the Night, since that seems to be the incredibly poorly thought out plan around here. Get two main suspects, lynch one, add on a new suspect, lynch one of the two, etc. And that’s been going so well for us so far, hasn’t it? So, prognosticating here, this is what I see happening: fluiddruid gets lynched. She either comes up scum or town.

[ul]
[li]If she’s scum, I get lynched because I defended her so valiantly on Day 3.[/li][li]If she’s town, I get lynched because I changed my mind and voted for her today.[/li][/ul]

Oh, there are going to be other reasons offered for why I should be lynched, I’m sure, but that’s what it’s mostly going to come down to, isn’t it? The main thing I have going against me is my voting record which, admittedly, sucks, but you know what? None of yours have been any better. Not a one of you so far has voted for confirmed scum (except, perhaps, **Kyrie **and scum throwing deflector votes). Yeah, I waffle. I’ve got a history of changing my mind within the last twelve hours of a day. I’ve posted some analysis and theories that nobody else agrees with.

But, really, I’m just a Vanilla Citizen who’s had some poor luck and has made some bad decisions. That’s all. If a townie had to be sacrificed, I’d be the first to put myself on the block because I don’t think I’ve been helping my side at all, but we can’t afford to keep lynching townies.
[/QUOTE]

I just can’t buy this. I have held off casting a vote (so have a lot of others, I’ve noticed), but I don’t want a last minute pile-on with no chance for discussion. I am still very suspicious of Lightnin’ and Hal Briston, but CaerieD’s defense of fluiddruid combined with her changing her mind just keeps leaping out in front.

And yes, CaerieD, my voting record is better than yours. I have voted every time, which you have not, and I do not have any final votes for a townie. I did vote for confirmed scum - three days in a row - a fact that Idle Thoughts is trying to use now to lynch me.

Vote CaerieD

[Gadarene]

I realized I forgot to answer this question from way back in Post #1406:

Question for Gadarene: When the whole game is done with, will you reveal what the cases were each no-kill night?

Sure thing, if people are interested.

Updated Vote Count

2 – Lightnin’ (DiggitCamara, Millit the Frail)
2 – CaerieD (Lightnin’, SnakesCatLady)
1 – SnakesCatLady (Idle Thoughts)

Updated player list to follow.

[Gadarene]

Updated player list:

Alive:

3. CaerieD
4. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
5. Hal Briston
6. nesta
7. SnakesCatLady
8. Lightnin’
9. Lemur866
10. tirial
11. Blaster Master
12. Millit the Frail
13. Rachm Qoch
14. DiggitCamara
15. Omi No Kami
16. Idle Thoughts

Dead:

8. percypercy – citizen (lynched, Day One)
9. NAF1138 – citizen (murdered, Night One)
10. dnooman – citizen (lynched, Day Two)
11. Kyrie Eleison – detective (murdered, Night Two)
12. Projammer – do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
13. fluiddruid – mafia (lynched, Day Four)

Fourteen players left; eight votes needed to lynch.

[tirial]

**Lightnin’ ** could you answer some questions for me?

1. Who do you suspect as scum given the analysis that has gone on today?
2. If you aren’t scum, how do you explain the day one vote swing?
3. Why did you make a vote on Day Three that you admitted was intended to end the day early? How do you think ending the day early can benefit the town?
4. If you don’t like being suspected, why do your actions on days after Day One not appear to be to the town’s benefit?
5. You voted Projammer because as you said you thought it would end the day early and because you thought everyone else had voted for him. When it turned out that wasn’t the case, why didn’t you retract your vote or provide supporting information for it?

If you have answered these before, my apologies.

Also in P1472 to Diggit you state “And your post is just another example of the kind of insinuation I’m getting tired of- vaguely cloaked implication, with no real evidence to back it up.” My post directly afterwards raises two factual issues which you have not answered.

If you aren’t trying to condemn yourself then
a) when I make a post saying that you are either inept or scum, did you protest you weren’t inept? I’d have expected you to protest you weren’t either, or that you weren’t scum.
b) why when voting for CaerieD didn’t you justify it for any of the many reasons that don’t incriminate you? Instead you used my post which does.

(And to quote you to CaerieD: "Of course, the main difference between you and I is that you voted to protect a (now) known Mafia player,** fluiddruid**. " And your Day 3 vote started the bandwagon that she voted on that got fluiddruid off that day. Do you understand how that could also be seen as suspicious?).

[Quote=Diggit]
There has even been an instance where the Moderator(bow to mighty Gadarene) himself asked someone if he wanted to exit the game."
[/Quote]

Diggit P1482. I will admit that bothered me. I was going to follow up against Omi No Kami, but let the issues lapse when he asked to leave the game, because I didn’t want to drive him out.

[Quote=Idle Thoughts]
“I think that’s what sealed his fate early and how the mafia figured he was the detective.”
[/Quote]
If they figured out he was the detective it raises the issue of why they didn’t recruit him rather than kill him. I also wonder why if fluiddruid’s breadcrumb was so obvious, why did half the town ignore it and vote for Projammer on the day afterwards, and why are some players (e.g. CaerieD P1461) still saying that fluiddruid may not have been it?

Hal Briston and Lemur866 Thanks for the analyses, I’m working through them now.

[ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies]

I’m not surprised that there aren’t many votes bubbling up as of yet, and I don’t think it is a bad thing. There is still plenty of time for discussion.

Speaking for myself, I’ve been looking at Lightnin’ and CarieD for so long, that something just wouldn’t feel right if I stopped suspecting them. But…there have always been other, more compelling (not necessarily correct or accurate) targets for my vote. Now that they are turning out to be the most-compelling targets, I’m finding it challenging to move them out of the slow simmer frying pan and into the fire.

At the same time, SnakesCatLady and Hal Briston keep coming to mind as well. I don’t know what has been going on inside people’s heads, but they haven’t received any public confirmatory nibbles at their vague suspicions of me. On one hand I find that reassuring, but on the other it smacks of an attempted manipulation of paranoia in concert.

[Lightnin]

[QUOTE=tirial]

1. Who do you suspect as scum given the analysis that has gone on today?
   [/QUOTE]

I’m still leaning towards CaerieD. I think the fact that suspecting her implicated fluiddruid, who of course turned out to be Mafia, validates my theory. I only voted fluiddruid because I found that CaerieD’s voting record was suspicious, and that it looked as though she’d protected fluiddruid. I voted on FD that day, because so many other people suspected her already and I thought it would be best to take out a suspected Mafia when the situation prevented itself. Now that it’s been revealed that FD was Scum, I’m switching back to my initial suspect, CaerieD.

[QUOTE=tirial]

2. If you aren’t scum, how do you explain the day one vote swing?
   [/QUOTE]

I think several people realized that the only reason I was so tempting a target was simply because I’d put my foot in my mouth early on. Remember- my targeting started early on, before anyone had really started creating strategies. It’s possible that other, more tempting targets appeared once we started talking.

[QUOTE=tirial]

3. Why did you make a vote on Day Three that you admitted was intended to end the day early? How do you think ending the day early can benefit the town?
   [/QUOTE]

It was my understanding then that it took ten votes to hang a suspect, and I’d misread Gadarene’s post to indicate that there were already nine votes for the lynching. Since I already suspected the person I thought had nine votes, I figured there was no point in delaying the end of the day any further.

Normally, ending the day early is bad. But if there’s a clear consensus on a suspect which I, myself, find suspicious, and all that’s missing is one vote, why delay?

Of course, I’d completely misunderstood the situation. :smack:

[QUOTE=tirial]

4. If you don’t like being suspected, why do your actions on days after Day One not appear to be to the town’s benefit?
   [/QUOTE]

I’ve shared my suspicions with everyone, every day. I’ve never been evasive. If I’ve been quiet at times, it was because I just didn’t have anything to say. I don’t know what you’re looking for, here.

[QUOTE=tirial]

5. You voted Projammer because as you said you thought it would end the day early and because you thought everyone else had voted for him. When it turned out that wasn’t the case, why didn’t you retract your vote or provide supporting information for it?
   [/QUOTE]

Because I’d already said why I suspected him, and no further evidence indicated (to me) that he was innocent. I didn’t retract my vote because at that point I didn’t have another suspect, and one thing I learned on Day One was that retracting a vote looks suspicious.

[Idle_Thoughts]

[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
I did vote for confirmed scum - three days in a row - a fact that Idle Thoughts is trying to use now to lynch me.

Vote CaerieD
[/QUOTE]

I don’t get this.

You not only voted for her three days in a row, but she even specifically called you out and talked about you at length in her last post saying all she thought was shady. Just you, mostly.
So tell me this–what I don’t get–how is it so implausible that that whole thing was just something to throw us all off and make us all get the farthest from another scum as possible?

If someone was scum, what do you think they’d do? Do the most obvious thing? Or the most unexpected?

I THINK, the most obvious thing in this case, would be saying someone was scummy (when one is scum themselves) and have everyone say “well, that whole post is discredited because she was a mafia member”. Really, think about it. NOBODY would ever expect or believe that they were really telling the truth (and “fighting” against one another) and EVERYONE would think that the scum in question was just trying to get us to go against a fellow townie.

How can you (or anyone) say that it’s impossible? I don’t understand that. It’s not impossible at all. It’s SMART PLAYING. How does the pro-town expect to win if they/we can’t think like scum would think?

[SnakesCatLady]

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
I don’t get this.

You not only voted for her three days in a row, but she even specifically called you out and talked about you at length in her last post saying all she thought was shady. Just you, mostly.
So tell me this–what I don’t get–how is it so implausible that that whole thing was just something to throw us all off and make us all get the farthest from another scum as possible?

If someone was scum, what do you think they’d do? Do the most obvious thing? Or the most unexpected?

I THINK, the most obvious thing in this case, would be saying someone was scummy (when one is scum themselves) and have everyone say “well, that whole post is discredited because she was a mafia member”. Really, think about it. NOBODY would ever expect or believe that they were really telling the truth (and “fighting” against one another) and EVERYONE would think that the scum in question was just trying to get us to go against a fellow townie.

How can you (or anyone) say that it’s impossible? I don’t understand that. It’s not impossible at all. It’s SMART PLAYING. How does the pro-town expect to win if they/we can’t think like scum would think?
[/QUOTE]

Have you considered you are doing exactly what she wanted you to do? I don’t know why she chose to go after me, other than the fact that I had voted for her two days (I think) in a row at the time of the post in question - and she was starting to get some unwanted attention. Maybe she was hoping that the attention would be deflected off of her onto me. It is also possible she was setting up just exactly what is happening - she knew I was town, and as I have said before - if Mafia wins she wins even if she is no longer in the game. We don’t have to worry about the Mafia killing us off if we are willing to do it to each other. We’ve done enough of that in this game.

Why would I have voted for her on the second day if I was scum? Or the third day? If I wanted to draw attention from myself, i don’t think voting the same way three days in a row is the way to do it. I could have skipped my votes around, much as you have done.

[Idle_Thoughts]

[QUOTE=SnakesCatLady]
Have you considered you are doing exactly what she wanted you to do?
[/quote]

Yeah, I have. A few times. And I think that those who say “discredit” what she said in her last post are doing exactly what she wanted them to do instead. Either that, or they’re scum too.

It is also possible she was setting up just exactly what is happening - she knew I was town, and as I have said before - if Mafia wins she wins even if she is no longer in the game. We don’t have to worry about the Mafia killing us off if we are willing to do it to each other. We’ve done enough of that in this game.

Snipped some.

That might work on someone whose suspicions weren’t as strong as mine. But since I think that you are scum, it’s all moot.

Why would I have voted for her on the second day if I was scum? Or the third day? If I wanted to draw attention from myself, i don’t think voting the same way three days in a row is the way to do it. I could have skipped my votes around, much as you have done.

@me

So tell me this–what I don’t get–how is it so implausible that that whole thing was just something to throw us all off and make us all get the farthest from another scum as possible?

The “whole thing” including you voting for her three days straight.

[Idle_Thoughts]

What I just don’t get (again) is why you can’t even admit or conceed that it’s not impossible. You seem to be, in all of your posts, saying “no no no, I’m not one. Why would all this happen and why would I do this?” [Not verbatim just general sense]. It seems to me that to YOU it’s impossible that fluiddruid (or any mafia member, for that matter) wouldn’t, in a million years, do what I’m implying or think is perfectly reasonable for them to have done or do.

If anything, that only makes me more confident in my vote.

[SnakesCatLady]

[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
What I just don’t get (again) is why you can’t even admit or conceed that it’s not impossible. You seem to be, in all of your posts, saying “no no no, I’m not one. Why would all this happen and why would I do this?” [Not verbatim just general sense]. It seems to me that to YOU it’s impossible that fluiddruid (or any mafia member, for that matter) wouldn’t, in a million years, do what I’m implying or think is perfectly reasonable for them to have done or do.

If anything, that only makes me more confident in my vote.
[/QUOTE]

I’m not denying that it could have happened. I am just trying (and not succeeding) to tell you that it didn’t happen. And trying to show you why. However, you seem to be determined not to listen to anything I have to say, so there’s not much point in defending myself to you anymore.

If you do succeed in getting me lynched, when it comes back that I am town you are going to look really bad.