If one were to throw a dart to make a vote yesterday, with 14 people, and assuming 4 scum as best case (with 5 the numbers would be larger), then you’d have had a 4/14 chance, or 28.57% chance of hitting someone with a random, which to me, means unless your 75% chance was just an example number, that you were basically as suspicious of the top three candidates as you were of everyone else. Were you really no more convinced one way or the other?
If we still assume 4 scum today, then the chance that a given person at random is scum is 30.77% or if there’s 5 it’s 38.46%.
Frankly, I think you’re right that my theory is least favorable to myself, but I don’t think that’s a reason to dismiss it out of hand. When you happened to put your vote on nesta, the top three were in a dead heat. That’s something I’m looking at. And SCL or CaerieD would have been put in peril if either of the other two votes had been put on them. Things tightened up in the end. As I’ve said, CaerieD’s activity at the end of Day 4 and the beginning of Day 5 is just as indictive of an unsure townie as a bold mafia, and I don’t find anything else to hang my hat on there.
Do you think that there’s nothing suspicious about four safe votes in such a tight race?
I’m too tired to think at the moment, but if Lightnin’s town that means I’m going for the complicated option. Of the lot Lemur866 is easily looking the scummiest. At the moment, everyone does, IRL and otherwise, so take that for whatever you think its worth.
Gadarene, I may need to find a sub.
BTW
“You all”? Lightnin’ didn’t even get an overall majority, far less all the townies. If “you all” refers to us townies, its a strange way to set youself outside the town.
Or, the first nokill night was a hit and save…so they tried again on the same person just to be sure, saw it was another nokill, and then recruited that person (who was probably the Doctor), since TWO tried for the same person in a row? Yeah, either that person was the Doc and is NOW, FOR SURE, recruited, or the Night Watchman is one lucky son of a gun.
Maybe. But I don’t see why they’d randomly try to recruit anyone unless they were sure of status. I can’t see them just trying, out of the blue, to take Lightnin’ without first trying to hit him and test to see if it worked.
I COULD have gone: First no-kill night: Try to hit Lightnin and found, by NW save, they couldn’t. Second no-kill night: Try to recruit Lightnin’ and found it failed. Third no-kill night: Either they tried hitting the Doc and found him protected or NW had another save.
But in that whole scenerio, I just don’t see or feel it happening. The odds would have to be pretty high. So I’m still of the mind that they either tried hitting first night and found someone saved and recruited the next night (the saved target, who very well could have been the Doc) or the first two no-kill nights tried hitting the same person (just to see if they were saved again or not and be sure/have better odds it is the Doc) and then recruited last night.
I mean, it makes MORE sense and it’s a far better chance than the NW making the save twice.
Either way, I still feel our Doc is no longer our Doc.
Either way I still wonder why they wouldn’t have either taken tirial or me out and, barring IF they had, if tirial is still town right now.
But apoligies to you too. It seems, knowing what we do, you were still protown yesterday. Or at least had a good chance of being so. But it seems even more likely today you may not be. However, I’ll keep in mind that there’s a chance that you, like me, are still non-recruited and that the scum are just playing with our minds.
Don’t get me wrong, I remain highly suspicious of you. But I’ll focus on all my other suspicions first.
For example…no matter what, I already know who I’m voting for this round.
Vote SnakesCatLady
Seriously, I have a huge feeling she’s a bad apple.
Snipped.
That’s what I’m thinking, actually, too. I could be way off and I hope I’m not but of the people who voted for him, I’m only very suspicious of one (DiggitCamara, as I said a few times the last day).
And this is also to some posts made by, well, everyone.
Yeah, yeah, there’s a LOT of cases and possiblities…and while some are plausible, there are only good chances of, say, one or two. And that actually make sense.
A. The mafia tried hitting someone once. They were protected. They try again, same person. Protected. They now know this person is PROBABLY the Doctor. Recruitment.
Easy peasy. Makes a lot of sense and is a very, very, very, very, very likely situation.
B. The mafia tried hitting someone once. They were protected. Recruitment.
This is what I thought it was yesterday. And that would have made this last night just a lucky save by the Night Watchman. However with THREE no-kill nights in a row now, A seems even more likely and makes more sense. They probably wanted to be absolutely sure they had the Doc.
And yeah, there are more cases. Many more. It’s even possible that the mafia has been voting no kill themselves just to throw us off.
But what makes the most sense? What is the most likely situation?
Huh? “You all” means the people who voted to lynch Lightning. Plural you. This is a new construction to you?
The people now highest on my suspicion list are the Lightning lynchers and the one-voters and the one-voted-against. Except that’s just about everyone.
And since your “complicated option” has fingered me out of a field of Idle Thoughts, Hal Briston, fluiddruid (now dead), and me, are we allowed to the reasoning that lead you to draw up that short list?
I’m not opposed to somone giving a reason of “you just seem scummy to me”, sometimes gut reactions and intuition are all we have. But if you believe you’ve got some logical reason, I’m not sure why you feel you have to keep that secret.
Just asking this question again since I asked it before but he must not have seen it… Gadarene, will we learn, at the games end, what happened on each no-kill night?
First off, I think we can discard the “no kill” option. Just doesn’t make sense. Sure, it’s a “they’d never expect us to do this!” move, but the reason we would never expect them to do it is because it makes no sense.
I have to imagine the failed kill, failed kill, recruitment is more likely, simply because last night they didn’t have to worry about any do-gooders.
But the lingering problem I have with this scenario is that it still seems way to early to recruit. There’s got to be three or four mafia left, an early recruitment leaves that recruit vulnerable to lynching, whereas if they wait they can pick their recruit from the pool of survivors. Even if they think they’re bracketed the Doctor, why would they recruit him NOW? Why not whittle down our numbers and recruit the Doctor later?
But three blocks in a row are in the 1% probability range, presuming random scum voting and random protection. That’s just so hard to believe that we could get that lucky. So I have to believe that seeing Lightning turn out Do-Gooder, and the mafia thinking they’ve got a good lead on the doc, rushed them into a premature recruitment.
The only take away from this is that anyone who role-claims doctor is gonna get a big old :dubious: from me. It’s possible the doctor wasn’t recruited, it’s possible no one was recruited, but that’s the way I’d play the odds.
[off-game]tirial, no matter what your status is, I really hope you could stay in the game. I mean if you’re really tired or pressed for time or finding the game becoming long, well, you do what you need to do and that’s understandable…but yeah, I just wanted to say that I hope you can continue because you’re a really great player.[/off-game]
The rest of your post makes a lot of sense. I didn’t have anything to reply to it since I agree somewhat.
But this quote here…all I have to say is (and I mentioned this too to DiggitCamara who said the same thing the last day) that could also be what the mafia wants us to think. They could have voted “no kill” just so we’d be suspicious of our own Doc whenever the time comes if they ever have to role claim.
I’m just not going to leave anything out in my reasoning.
This is a possibility. But basically my analysis of the situation would make me MORE likely to vote for someone who made an unchallenged doctor role-claim, whereas before I’d have to take it under consideration. I can’t imagine voting no-kill just to confuse us, I’d sooner believe 3 blocks than 2 blocks and a no-kill. Of course, more likely than either is 2 blocks and a non-doc recruitment, and more likely than that is 2 blocks and a doc recruitment.
Upon deeper contemplation, I’ve come to the conclusion that 1-0.63=0.37 :smack:
That would be something else if an educated guess was worse than a throw of the dart, huh?
Yeah, 75% was just an off-the-top-of-my-head ballpark estimation. An educated guess also differs from a random selection at the tail end where, in addition to a few who are in the “possible scum” group, there are also a select few who are at least slightly leaning town. This will further improve the possibility over random chance of successfully nailing scum. But the point remains that guessing even within a pool of likely suspects only marginally improves upon a throw of the dart.
The only way to prove I’m scum (which I’m not, just for the record) is to lynch me, or wait until I’m night-killed which I think your suspicions and my horrible record at spotting scum are making less likely. Once my role is known it won’t prove anything one way or the other about you. If I’m town it will make you look bad, but can easily be dismissed. If I’m scum it could have been two scum having it out to distance themselves. You weren’t in any danger of a lynch yesterday, so this could have been a safe play for scum to hedge their bets. You and I both know that’s not the case, but nobody else does.
You’ve been calling for looking at the players at the bottom of the post count for a number of days now. You are in this list too. Was I supposed to wait? You are right, though. Suspicion of you was growing, and my post approached you from this perspective. If you are town I could see scum using that suspicion and adding to it. I do have to wonder if they would have done so in such an obvious way. Maybe so, since they are trying to act as much like townies as possible, but I was very up-front with my suspicions of you, and also up-front with letting everyone know I didn’t find a smoking gun, and that I wasn’t convinced you were scum.
Yep, sounds familiar. If you look at that post in context, though, I didn’t post that out of the blue like I did for you. At the time, I was very convinced that Projammer was scum, and happened to mention Lightnin’ was near the top of my FOS list. Lightnin’ asked me why I suspected him, so I outlined what I found scummy about his posts. Post-by-post analysis is what I do. I’ve considered changing that, though, because I have a suspicion they are too long and people just skim through them without really paying much attention.
Also for the record, I really did think Lightnin’ was scum yesterday when I voted for him. As I was reviewing the thread (mostly looking for your posts) I re-read a bunch of Lightnin’s, and he really did come across to me as scummy. He made some very odd statements, and made some very odd plays. Backed up by his voting record I fully expected on that last refresh before the results were announced that he’d come up scum and I could sleep happily that night.
Oh come now, I was hardly the only one who thought Lightnin’ was more likely to be scum than not. My post had very little to do with his lynching. My vote did, but that’s not what you’re calling me on here.
My post was exactly what it looks like. I saw that there was suspicion of you, realized that I had almost no read on you, and decided to see for myself. I’m suspicious of low post-count players a little more than those who are out-front, so I decided to have a look at you. I also decided to post what I’d found for the town’s benefit. This is how this game is supposed to work. If you’re town you should expect this to happen, and not rush to kill anyone looking closely at you.
[color removed]
Believe me or not, I’m happy with your response to my FOS. I reviewed your history in the game and posted what I found in a hope of getting a better read on you. To some extent that’s worked. I get the feeling now that you’re just as confused at this point as I am. I don’t think scum would react like you have, so you’ve dropped a few notches on my suspicion list. If you’re scum, well played.
Vote for me until one of us is dead if you like. I think you’re being a little shortsighted, though. Before I FOSed you I was in your probably town column, so it seems to me the only reason I switched to definitely scum is that I wanted to figure out if you were scum or not. Ask yourself if this is something scum would do. If you stay convinced that I’m scum, so be it, but please don’t let this tunnel-vision keep you from looking for scum that don’t depend on my being one.
For the record regarding SCL, while I’m still suspicious of her she hasn’t done anything since I last accused her to change my mind about anything. She’s evasive, she rarely provides a straight answer to my accusations, and she seems to dodge my questions by intentional misunderstanding extremely simple statements. But I already said my piece about her. If anyone wants me to clarify my earlier statements I’ll be happy to, but since the clock was counting down I thought it was important to give a clear vote.
And I voted for RQ because I still suspect him or her more than I do SCL. ^^
Yeah, I’ll tell everyone what happened each night, if they want to know.