Mafia The Game III: Kinder and Gentler

The Game Room
1661

Thanks, but with a chance of a recruit, you really shouldn’t trust anyone at the moment.

“Do you think that there’s nothing suspicious about four safe votes in such a tight race?” - Possibly, but I really wasn’t sure if it was town v town, as I said at the time, and under those circumstances I wasn’t going to vote for either.

**Lemur866 ** Not posting all notes, but the basic way I was looking at it was:

  1. Mafia won’t play as team, so look for three people in the strands
    1 - under the radar
    2 - vocal town
    3 - Standard townie.
    Vocal town pretty much gives you a choice of me and Idle Thoughts - I know I’m town and my other reasons for voting for him were laid out previously. I’m still surprised he claimed experience on the first day - it tends to be more useful to the town if no one knows you have it.

Under the radar gives Hal Briston, and nesta - I’m pretty much tied on them, as both are staying very low. SnakesCatLady, Omi no Kami and Millet were on this list, but Omi no kami went for fluiddruid quite vocally (may be a bluff) and Millet is posting more SnakesCatLady got dragged off this list by the fluiddruid bandwagon and then Idle Thought accusations.

Standard Townie gives the remaining set, but of them all you come up as scummie because of the reasons mentioned before, and the fact that when you responded to my accusations you didn’t seem the realise the problem wasn’t in what you said, it was in the knowledge you would get if anyone responded. It would take an experienced player to respond without giving aware anything useful to the mafia (which Idle Thoughts managed). That sort of question is “fishing”.

They won’t vote as a team, so on Day 2 look for a split vote 2/2, 3/1, a failure to vote (yes this fingers me or Omi No Kami) or a No lynch vote (which leaves CaerieD). There will be more than one scum in each set, but its easier to isolate the most scummy in each group. On Day 3 look for the swing votes to get fluiddruid off (makes Blastermaster look bad). On Day One? God knows. The only person left from that debacle is Omi No kami.

  1. Look at voting patterns - where do people fall in the chart?
  2. Look at Millet’s chart - who voted when? In town v town they’ve got no odds. On Day 3, they may be mid to late Projammer votes, or mid- fluiddruid votes (Depends when they hung her out to dry) On Day 4 they could be anywhere - pretty obvious they weren’t going to get her off.
  3. Check the posts around the vote for me too’s, motives and bandwagon jumping.

[offgame] Idle Thoughts, thanks, but it depends on IRL unfortunately. Should know if sanity is returning by Tuesday.[/offgame]

1662

Hmm, so while looking back I found a few interesting tidbits from fluiddruid’s day. One was his insistence that analyzing the no kill days was bad for town: http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8555543&postcount=1323 . Was there a reason he didn’t want us thinking along those lines, or had he decided that he was a goner and begun blowing smoke everywhere? Either way, I would like to hear people’s opinions about his record; aside from his final defense post, how much of his stuff is useful, and how much was meant for us to look at after his death?

(in his defense post he mentioned
[QUOTEfluiddruid]

Now of course that assumes that the recruit hasn’t been used. I don’t think it has. Why? The Mafia have no reason to recruit so early. As has been stated, there are no confirmed and trusted townies, and the Do-Gooder is still in play. It makes the most sense for the Mafia to hold the recruitment as long as possible until they have no choice but to use it to survive."
[/QUOTE]
. Again with the recruiting line. Probably BS at that point, but still good to note.)

Anyway, about Rachm Qoch and why I voted for him: for one, he’s quiet. Not a big deal, but I’m fairly certain that at least a few gangsters are hiding this way. Second, a lot of his long posts strike me as being suspiciously devoid of useful information. Take as an example http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8548095&postcount=1222 ; it may just be his honest opinion, but it strikes me as remarkably unhelpful; almost as if he’s trying to tread carefully so his inside knowledge (if he’s scum) doesn’t accidentally leak out in the way he analyzes things.

Tirial was the one to spot this before he was all suspicious-like, but he mentioned that Rachm Qoch tried to set up at least two voting blocks with “me too” votes, where he basically instantly agreed with someone else’s accusations without providing any feedback.
(He usually me-too’d with CaerieD’s posts, from what I recall. I assume that means that if he’s scum, she’s more likely than not innocent.)

In general, however, what makes me wary of Rachm Qoch (and SCL, for that matter; see http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8512150&postcount=768 ) is that he’s an extremely neutral player; he just kind of sits back, posts random noise every so often, and only really gets engaged when somebody accuses him of something.

Check out http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8514850&postcount=818 , for instance, where he (from my vantage point) comes up with this claim that I’m trying to take votes away from Projammer out of nowhere. We know now that Projammer was town, so my suspicion is that if he is, in fact, scummy, he was probably trying to lay groundwork for the town to lynch me later. If he’s innocent though, I have no clue what was up with that bit.

And that’s basically my stance. No alarm bells or gigantic tells, but a lot of circumstantial evidence adding up. I have about as much evidence for SCL, but RQ honestly just pings my scum radar a bit more.

1663

I had intended to vote for CaerieD again today, but for some reason I’m not as suspcious of her as I used to be. I still think her defense of fluiddruid marks her as scum, but there is a possibility she just defended the wrong person. Since defending anyone at all in this game seems to be a good way to get it trouble it wasn’t the wisest move she could have made, and I am still suspicious of her, but I don’t think my vote is going to her because there are some recent entries in the scum sweepstakes.

Omi no Kami, I have gone back and read some earlier threads and something you said really jumped out at me. How I “agreed with current accusations”. (post #768) That is pure unmitigated bullshit. I voted for fluiddruid three days in a row, whether anyone else was voting for her or not - how is that “agreeing” with anyone?

Lemur866 also kind of took me by surprise with the out of the blue vote for me yesterday. He’s flown so low in this game that I wasn’t really considering him at all, but that made me sit up and take notice. If a few others had voted for me, he would have been safely in the middle.

1664

SCL, quite frankly I don’t give a fuck what you think at this point. As I’ve subsequently stated on multiple occasions I wasn’t accusing either you or RQ in that post; I was using your recent behavior as an example of the archetype I was refering to. Clear? Good. Fuck off.

1665

Take your RL issues somewhere else or get a sub.

1666

Chill out, honey! “Kinder and Gentler,” remember? :stuck_out_tongue: I don’t want the mods slapping you down, so let’s not use those four-letter words around here.

I get your frustration, though. I have no idea what to do right now. I was so colossally wrong in most of my votes so far that I feel like I’m starting from the ground up. I vacillate between thinking that there’s no possible way that we can win (Detective gone early, this recruitment nonsense) and thinking that we’ve been giving a fresh chance (every morning, townies present and accounted for).

I’m leaning toward SCL myself. But then I’ve been wrong so many times that I’m wondering if my suspicion means she’s town…

Now, as promised, I’m going to do some reading and report back. It’s not very beneficial to get caught up in today without some context, right?

1667

Since I am all “suspicious-like” as Omi no kami puts it, I’ll limit myself to facts.

third vote pattern

Day One
NAF - fluiddruid
p422 Lighnin(T), dnooman(T)
p447
Omi No Kami (U), CaerieD (U)
Projammer(T), percypercy(T)
percypercy(T) fluiddruid (S) *

Day Two
projammer (T) - nesta(U)
dnooman - CaerieD(U)
end of P841
projammer(T) - Millet
dnooman (T) - Hal Briston

Day Three
Fluiddruid - Blastermaster who unvoted. Then Idle Thoughts
Projammer - Hal Briston (P1028)

Day 4
fluiddruid - snakescatlady

Day 5
Lightnin’ - DarksideCookies
SnakesCatLady - Lemur866
CaerieD - Blastermaster

However looking at the fluiddruid’s past pasts, she actually throws suspicion at moe than SnakesCatLady.

P948 before fluiddruid knew she was in trouble:

A smart mafia would include at least one scum on that list. Then again a smart scum wouldn’t have 100% anti-town vote record

Defense post 1251 fluiddruid fingers:

. Again, if a smart scum would included at least one scum in that list, we can compare lists and see what changes.
List 1 CaerieD, Projammer, Lemur866 and (Possibly) Omi No Kami
List 2 SnakesCatLady, Omi No Kami and Lemur866.

Out of all of them, the strongest scum vibes I get are from Lemur866 and CaerieD. CaerieD is mentioned once but dropped from the defense post fluiddruid could expect us to analyse. Lemur866 is on both. I don’t know what to make of it. Scum tell? Any comments?

BTW P278, fluiddruid says Blastermaster and Cookies look scummy for using random.org. Would he direct attention their way that early if they were really scum, or is it a double bluff?

1668

Snipped and bolding mine.

What about Omi No Kami’s insistence that fluiddruid is a him when she’s actually a her? :p:p;)

1669

I’m not sure that I can decipher your first few notes, tirial. Are you saying that each of these people made the third vote? Is that a scum tell anymore? (See below.)

More about fluiddruid: With the exception of her very last, last-ditch vote for SCL, every vote from fluiddruid was for a now-confirmed townie. That looks bad for SCL, because that

Fluiddruid in the voting order for those townies:
NAF: She was third (and unvoted soon after Kyrie, the originator of that bandwagon, did so).
percy: She was third.
Kyrie: She was first and only (and unvoted when Projammer=7 and dnooman=6, to tie it up).
dnooman: She was sixth.
Projammer: She was seventh.

…and finally, the unknown:
SCL: She was first and only.

I still think SCL was a bluff. She’s being awfully defensive, but not in a very helpful way.

Today, I’ve looked over the voting records, time and time again, and I have a few notes on that.

After the first half of the first day, which is almost useless, since we had nothing to go on and were voting pretty much randomly, there’s a bit of a vote pattern: The known dead townies voted overwhelmingly for other dead townies. It’s kind of a sad story. The two unknowns that garnered votes from the dead townies (after the opening mayhem) are Cookies and CaerieD. I’m not sure what that means, but I’m feeling better about both of them.

As far as the opening mayhem, **Diggit **and Lemur got a couple of dead townie votes, as did Omi no Kami. Omi was the only one that was not unvoted by the voter. That voter was Kyrie, who, the very next day, voted for fluid, our only known Mafia, and was struck down immediately. Omi no Kami looks suspicious there.

I’ll end this by saying that I’m not nearly as good with words and arguments as I am with hard data. Not statistics, necessarily, but charts and tables and things. (What can I say? IRL, I do clinical trials research.) That’s why I’m the self-appointed resident Spreadsheet Maven. I’m a very slow reader, so going back over the thread nets me next to nothing, but if anyone wants any data pulled from past votes, please let me know. I’m working on a “how often has each player voted with the majority” thing right now. Think that will be useful? Give me feedback.

1670

Yeah, that plagues all of us through this game. I figured that my username was way too feminine for anyone to mis-pronoun me, but Hal managed to do it anyway. No worries, Hal…it’s cool, I’m just not a dude.

(Oh, crap…I verbed another noun.)

(What? Oh…shit…)

1671

I have given up on trying to defend myself - the last time I tried it earned me a “fuck off”. If you want to lynch another townie, go right ahead. I’m sure fluiddruid will enjoy the laugh.

1672

I’ve only got time for a quick point or two, so…

When I read List 1 further up in your post, I applied a little psychology to it – if a person wanted to hide an ally amongst a list of enemies, the classic position is to name them third. It’s usually not even done consciously.

So, If I were looking at these two lists as an outside observer, the fact that in both lists, the same person is named third might be awfully telling.

If we’re assuming that she named a scum teammate in her lists, then either fluiddruid has studied a bit of psychology, or Lemur866 is well deserving of a major FOS.

Did I? Ahh, crap…I’m sorry. I believe I remember the post you’re referring to, and I thought I went out of my way to be gender-neutral in it (although I was pretty sure you were female).

Well, my player chart has an (F) next to your name now. :slight_smile:

1673

A very fine post, indeed.

I don’t know if you wrote your post in your game persona or if you wrote the post in earnest, Omi no Kami. I am not a mod, I am not a junior mod and I am not the moderator of this game.

However, I joined this game thinking it would be a contest of wits. I joined this game believing most (if not all others) were playing in the same spirit I was playing in.

There is some friction involved in any game of this nature, and mostly I expect people to understand it and brace themselves against it. On the other hand, I enjoy (and hope to continue enjoying) games of this nature on this message board.

The posts you make decrying your supposed prosecution and the post I am citing are lessening my enjoyment of this game. Since, apparently, you have a very thin skin regarding accusations in your direction, I will vote Omi no Kami, not because I think you are scum but because I at least will enjoy this game more once you are out of it.

1674

Fine with me.

Could I please request to be subbed out?

1675

Come on y’all. This is all fun and games, right? I mean, yeah…it is addictive, eats up some time, and can get in the way of things like…I dunno…work, spouses, remembering to eat and bathe. But I do always remember to breathe :slight_smile:

1676

Omi no Kami, sorry to hear that you want to be subbed, but if you really don’t like being accused that much, it might be for the best.

Millet The first name on the list is the person who received the third vote, the second name is the person who was the third vote for them. CaerieD and Blastermaster seem to be the only people who come up twice.

SnakesCatLady not everyone is telling you to F off. If you really think you are going to be lynched could you mention anyone you think may be suspicious or scum, the main components of your scum list and any tells you think the town needs to look at - if you are town that would be useful.

I hate to say it, but we seem to be going round and round in circles, and getting sidetracked into rows between posters, rather than actively looking for scum. We have a limited amount of time here, the scum have given us little in the way of information over the last few nights, and we need to start taking an active approach to finding them. At the moment, the scum could just sit there voting no-kill each night and we’d wipe the town out for them, the way we are going.

We can’t keep hanging around waiting for a smoking gun because we aren’t going to get it (and even when we did - from the detective - it took two days to lynch the scum). All we’ve got is analysis, thread tells and so on, and the more debate we can post the more likely we are to find something, or the more likely a scum player is to slip.

1677

Tirial, I understand that, and I did post my suspicions list yesterday when it looked like I might be getting a rope necklace. If anyone has any specific questions regarding my votes or my behavior, I will answer them to the best of my ability. I will continue to participate in the game. I simply was surprised - and got my feelings hurt - by Omi no Kami’s little snark attack yesterday. Since she hasn’t bothered to apologize I assume she considers that normal game play and I’m glad she’s subbing out.

Since my votes against fluiddruid seem to be getting me the most suspicion, I will try one more time to explain them. Day 2, I voted on a guess - we didn’t have very much to go on at the time - based on her votes on Day 1. When the sun came up on Day 2 both of the people she had voted for on Day 1 (NAF1138 (unvoted) was nightkilled, percypercy was lynched) were dead. Her behavior on that and Days 3 and 4 reinforced my suspicions of her. It was a lucky guess on Day 2.

1678

Omi No Kami:

I’m sorry to hear it, but okay. zuma is now replacing Omi No Kami in the game. Updated player list to follow.

1679

I hate to say it, but I am relieved. It is difficult to push points when the target threatens to sub (which has happened twice).

Welcome zuma - how quickly can you get up to speed?

Actually I checked a few games of mafia and mafiascum.net, and its not normal gameplay at all. The issue not so much being the swearing (that’s a board issue) as the threatening to sub out when pushed, which seems to be considered a breach of the “play fair” rule.

We’ve got until tomorrow night. Can we put this behind us and start digging?

Oh, and to get things started: FOS Lemur866 for reasons already given.
There are plenty of alternatives to you Lemur866, (personally I’d consider Zuma/Omi no Kami, CaerieD, Blastermaster, etc.), so please point some out. If we can get the discussion moving we might get something useful.

1680

Hmmm…I find it very hard to believe that scum would have skin as thin as Omi’s seemed to be of late. In light of this, I’m going to go ahead and Anti-FOS zuma (and welcome to the fray…please don’t prove me wrong…I’d hate to have to lynch you :)).