Yipes, Millit! Glad to hear you’re okay!
<pokes Gadarene with a not-all-that-pointy stick>
What gives? The deadline was over an hour ago. Don’t make me break out the very pointy ones!
*It is the Village Green. It is dawn. It is peaceful.
And suddenly a panicked grue comes tearing through the midst of the townspeople from the direction of the Wharf, screaming bloody murder.
Quite literally.
You find CaerieD pinioned on the pier, bereft of life and bearing a note that reads simply, “The Ghost of Detectives Past.”*
CaerieD, a citizen, is dead.
The Day will end at 10:30 a.m. my time on Monday. Eleven players left, so six votes will lynch.
Damn. G’bye, CaerieD.
Damn…well, I guess that streak couldn’t last. Sorry to see you go, CaerieD – hopefully much will be revealed because of this.
In the meantime, I’ve had the analysis of Lemur’s posts ready for about two days now. Unfortunately, several of the indicators in my analysis were ones that made me suspect…CaerieD! Looks like I’ve got some editing to do before I post this.
Ok, I think I pulled all the now-irrelevant portions, and properly edited the ones that had a change in relevancy:
Hmmm…of the three named, we have two dead townies and Omi/Zuma. I had done an anti-FOS on Zuma on the basis that scum would not flame out the way Omi did. Was I wrong about that? After all, it was fluiddruid’s naming of Lemur on her “suspicion list” (and the assumption that one scum would be named on there) that convinced me of Lemur’s guilt.
If we are to assume that Lemur was spreading lies every chance he got, that would indicate that some of the later votes against percypercy were cast by scum. Here’s the breakdown:
Final vote: CaerieD (now confirmed town)
2nd to final: Blaster Master
3rd to final: dnooman (confirmed town)
4th to final: fluiddruid (confirmed scum)
Three of these we know about, so it comes down to whether or not Lemur was actively trying to hide scum in there. We know fluiddruid was scum, but is 4th place close enough to safely call? Was he trying to hide possible Blaster Master scum status? Or was he playing this one straight (a distinct possibility – the logic presented in that linked post is solid)?
I have a hard time seeing scum playing something like that as an all-or-nothing – more likely, we’re looking at one townie and one scum, making things look awfully suspicious for SCL. Of course, it didn’t last long…the next day, it was “So I’m gonna vote SnakesCatLady once again”.
[nonplaying]… good to hear you’re all right, Millit[/nonplaying]
Sorry to see you go, CaerieD
Aw, well, I lasted longer than I did in the last game at least. Good luck, my fellow citizens! I’ll be rooting for you over my nachos. GO TOWN!
Concerning scum’s relationships to each other
Now that we have two scum out of the game, we can make interesting analysis of their behavior and patterns. And Lemur866’s posts make very interesting reading!
Right off the bat: Apparently we have two “antagonizing” scum. That is, **fluiddruid **pointed her finger, repeatedly, at Lemur866. In fact, on her “suspicions” she only repeated Omi no Kumi/zuma’s name and Lemur866.
Lemur866 seemed largely unconcerned with her attacks on him; in fact, like I pointed out yesterday, he was the first one to try to subtly derail her lynching on day 3 (post 912).
Sorry to loose you CaerieD. Unfortunately that does remove one of my leading scum candidates. I don’t think it exonerates Blastermaster or **Rachm Qoch ** however.
Basically, if CaerieD is town, and conveniently voting along with the mafia (which has appeared to have happened twice - Day 1 & 3) why kill an extra vote? And more important why kill someone who was on the town suspicion list?
Either
- to distract suspicion from the people she’s been voting with
- to put the town attention on the people she was voting for
or if they worked this out - to put rachm Qoch and Blastermaster, who she often voted with on the front line
- to get one of the people she was voting for lynched.
So I suppose it all depends on how complex the scum are. There are other options for selection that would affect this, but they make this even more complex.
Looking at Hal Briston’s post BTW, if you look at the final four votes as he laid them out, that makes Blastermaster the third vote out of the four in the second block.
Unfortunately with **lemur866 **gone I don’t currently have a leading suspect, although I am beginning to doubt if the recruit has occurred yet. First because Lemur866 was so insistant it had. Second, because if its saved to the endgame the recruit is a pretty powerful tool. If they have already used it however, then we are facing a fixed number of scum from here on, and each posters’ alignment would be fixed, which can only be good for the town. (Why would scum insist that a recruit took place when it didn’t? What a good way to make the town lynch other townies.)
If there were 4-6 mafia to start,
two have been killed.
2-4 mafa remain
(+1 possible recruit)
3-5 mafia.
How many posters are left total?** Gadarene ** could we have an updated player count?
Also, since fluiddruid and lemur866 are confirmed scum, can we cross reference their posts and see if that gives us any leads on other mafia? I’ll have a look at that later myself.
(This post is brought to you by the blue goblins of sleep deprivation and the angels of caffiene.)
Thanks everyone. And tirial, you made me laugh. 
Ouch…CaerieD! I think we will learn a lot from this revelation. I wonder why her?
More substance later, including a spreadsheet update. I’m doing laundry today to get rid of that nice “burning wood” smell. Ahhh.
I’m puzzled about the mafia’s reasons for taking CaerieD also; there were still plenty of players (including me, sorry) who were suspicious of her. It seems likely she would have been lynched in the next few days.
I am very suspicious of Omi/zuma. I hate to do it to zuma, but the record Omi no Kami left behind isn’t a good one. Omi voted and unvoted fluiddruid and Kyrie Eleison on Day 1, and ended the day with no vote. No vote again on Day 2, and voted/unvoted fluiddruid to end Day 3 with no vote. Finally a vote on Day 4 for fluiddruid, and voted for Rachm Qoch on Day 5. Zuma subbed in and didn’t vote on Day 6. Lots of dancing around, but only 2 votes in 6 days.
Concerning voting patterns
Again, I find it interesting to note how much their voting patterns differed. fluiddruid voted in most of the “pile-ups”, be it for one of the victims or one of the almost victims.
Lemur866, however, displayed extreme caution. In all but two days (I’m excluding fluiddruid’s bandwagon on day 4) he voted for someone who was in no actual danger of being lynched. He participated in Projammer’s lynching which can be explained, since he was trying to save fluiddruid and when Lightnin’ was lynched he voted for SnakesCatLady who, with his vote, came into range to be lynched.
Concerning scum’s honesty
Surprisingly enough, Lemur866 was an honest scum!
Post 916
Post 919
Post 1200
He pretty much described the strategy he was following.
And, due to that, Hal Briston’s idea that there might be scum hidden at the tail end of day one’s lynching sounds very plausible to me.
Safe travels to the big nacho plate in the sky, CarieD. 
If a silver-lining can be found, at least you were just vanilla.
There’s an option to consider as to why she was selected, but it requires me going down a path that I’ve spoken out against in the past: that of trying to guess what happened on the no-kill nights. (But I am only going to think on it briefly, because I do think such conversations can suck up a lot of time and energy without being anywhere even close to accurate.)
If none of those no-kills were due to a recruiting attempt, but were all Doctor or NW blocks (this also assumes that the scummy bastages aren’t throwing in a “no lynch” just to fsck with our heads) they may have tried to change up their strategy after repeatedly being denied.
Could they have targeted her because she was not a likely candidate for protection? Or could they have gone to random selection? They sure took a long time to come to a decision, though they could very well have been sitting on it just to make us crazy.
Just a final thought: During the last day I repeatedly asserted that scum had decided early on there was no way they could save fluiddruid. Newsflash: I was wrong! 
Lemur866, at least, voted very late against her, using a technique he described elsewhere (voting against a teammate if they don’t see any other way to save her).
Come to the Dark Side, please stop reading my mind. It tickles. I was going over my notes and thinking the exact same thing about the reason CaerieD was taken. It leads me to think a block of some kind has to have taken place on at least one of the no kill nights.
R.I.P. CaerieD. That death came out of left field.
Good to see you’re okay, Millit
Snipped.
And, nearing the end there and especially in her big defense post, SnakesCatLady.
Vote SnakesCatLady
>color removed<
Idle Thoughts, doesn’t the fact that Lemur866 voted with you give you the slightest hint?
tirial:
Coming right up.
Updated player list:
Alive:
- ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
- Hal Briston
- nesta
- SnakesCatLady
- tirial
- Blaster Master
- Millit the Frail
- Rachm Qoch
- DiggitCamara
- zuma
- Idle Thoughts
Dead:
- percypercy – citizen (lynched, Day One)
- NAF1138 – citizen (murdered, Night One)
- dnooman – citizen (lynched, Day Two)
- Kyrie Eleison – detective (murdered, Night Two)
- Projammer – do-gooder (lynched, Day Three)
- fluiddruid – mafia (lynched, Day Four)
- Lightnin’ – do-gooder (lynched, Day Five)
- Lemur866 – mafia (lynched, Day Six)
- CaerieD – citizen (lynched, Night Six)
Eleven players left; six votes needed to lynch.