How’s about I found the whole kerfluffle over PRONOUNS silly? Seriously. That’s the be-all and end-all of my “defense” of Pleonast, which was not so much a defense of him as my annoyance with the whole thing. Yes, I took the trouble to look up his posts in Conspiracy - it seemed like the best way to resolve the whole thing. Unfortunately it seems to have been a waste of my time, as many things in life end up being.
As for Pleonast, I’m trying to decide whether I believe his claim or not. The thing if, if he’s Town, what he just did seems kind of . . . panicked? Reckless? Not something that I’d expect from him, at any rate. I would have been more inclined to believe the claim if he’d already argued himself blue in the face but was still frontrunner for the lynch. At the point of his roleclaim he was still tied with Menocchio. I just think it’s in the best interest of the Town for people to put off role-claims as a last resort (or unless you are an informative role and believe you can tilt the game with the information you currently possess). Otherwise, role-claims don’t do much other than confirm your role to the scum.
I would have not recruited and killed someone off to:
A. Do exactly what everyone thought I wouldn’t do
B. Keep myself hidden as well as possible in a large group of people
C. Hope the Vig was tempted to use their power too to do even more damage hopefully.
I would recruit down the road, like say, starting the next Night akin to what Town did with the No-Lynch the first night and then lynching someone. By then I’d hope I’d have a better idea who and who not I could maybe recruit,
So all in all, I still lean more toward what I had thought earlier.
However I do agree with your (and what NAF said) main point. Assuming there are now two scum doensn’t hurt. Either way, time will tell.
Snipped.
True. Yanno, if there’s one thing I’ve learned from this game, it’s that EVERYTHING done doesn’t really mean crap. : p People always say ‘if you do X, it’s scummy’ and I’ve seen scum, in fact, do X before but I’ve also seen Town do X. There’s just about no exceptions.
I unvoted Bufftabby. But here it is again, [color=red]Unvote Bufftabby**
I have no idea if I should believe Pleonast or not.
I don’t likePleo’s role claim at all. I’m not changing my vote just yet, but now I’m worried that Menocchio is right and Pleo is the guilty one. I’m not sure which, but I think one of them is definitely scum.
We have to remember, this is NOT a single recruit game. If it were, I could agree with the idea that the Boss may delay recruiting for a little while. Since it is not…
A) I don’t get this point at all. Why is it necessarily in the Boss’s favor to do the opposite of what the town expects. Hey, in a typical mafia game, the town expects the scum to kill every night. Should they elect not to do that just because the town expects them not to? Expectations matter when it provides information, in this case, it actually provides LESS information if he recruits since it’s expected and IF there is a Vig and he kills, we’re left with doubt about whether he killed and the Vig either failed, didn’t attack, or doesn’t exist, or he recruited, and the Vig is a wild card. If he had recruited and no one died, we’d still not know if he tried to recruit or he tried to attack and hit the doctor (who was likely self protecting) and thus makes the doctor panic. However, if he killed, and the Vig killed, we’d know that he didn’t recruit so there’s still only one scum, we’d know there’s a Vig. IOW, the Boss killing last Night potentially yields an enormous amount of information for us and considering information is the mafia’s advantage, it would be foolish to do so, especially to instill chaos in an already chaotic situation.
B) I don’t get this point either. Keep himself hidden in a larger group? Right now, we still have a large number of players, so the change in the player pool by losing one is relatively small. But, he could accomplish the SAME task with a recruit, while increasing his numbers and preventing the possibility of an insta-loss Today. Look at it this way, if he recruits, and he gets lynched, the scum live on. If he recruits, and his recruit get’s lynched, it’s no different than if he’d killed, because the lynchee would have otherwise been a town. If he recruits and neither gets lynched, he’s up by 3 (down two townies, up one scum). If he doesn’t recruit, and he doesn’t get lynched, then he’s up 2 (down two townies). And if he doesn’t recruit, and he gets lynched, he loses. IOW, if he recruited, he’s at WORST back where he started, and at best up 3. If he did’t, he’s at worst LOST, and at best up two. And since the best and worst case scenarios match up, there’s actually ZERO advantage, and everything to lose.
C) With regard to the Vig, I already addressed this in point A. If the Vig had attacked, and done more damage, sure we’d have lost another townie, but we’d have gained an enormous amount more information, making the trade worth it. We’d KNOW there was a Vig, we’d KNOW the scum killed, and we’d KNOW there was only one scum left. Having good solid information like that is beneficial to the town and is worth the extra death.
While I appreciate your motivation, the reasoning just isn’t there to put more than a cursory glance to a kill scenario last Night.
Here’s my issue. I didn’t buy the pronoun issue myself, simply because I consider “slips” like that to generally be a null tell. As such, I believe voting for Pleo based on that to be, at best specious reasoning, and at worst motivated by anti-town sentiment.
That said, Pleo qualified his use by saying it’s something he does. Fair enough, but why DID you go out of your way to look it up? The person making the claim is the one responsible for backing it up. The effort you put in to do so, seems much more likely to be motivated by some defense of him. A town motivation would be to either attack reasoning, find an argument unconvincing, or add to an argument either with more reasoning or support of evidence. A non-town motivation would be to unnecessarily put it someone else’s leg work.
But even that isn’t really enough to make me overtly suspicious, because I could see curiousity getting the better of you, and so I simply made a mental note of it. However, you quickly went from that slight defensive posture to “ooh, I dunno about this role claim”. I find the timing of his role-claim rather premature; HOWEVER, there is reasonable potential for pro-town motivation, which he specifically included in his claim. If you had no reason to be suspicious of him beforehand, because you found the pronoun slip silly, why would you suddenly be wary of his role claim? Surely, the probability that he’s town is overwhelming (as it is for anyone), and SOMEONE in the town HAS to be a priest, so why would you not give him the benefit of the doubt if you thought the rest of the reasoning against him was silly?
This appears to be a bit of a “have your cake and eat it too” behavior. By finding his claim doubtful, you can smudge him without casting a vote yet. But by having found his pronoun thing silly to the point of actually doing leg work to support it, you can go back and say “see, I KNEW it was silly”. So you can push for him to get killed, NOT actually have your vote on an innocent, and then appear to be amongst the town wise for having known he wasn’t scum.
No, mine was legit too! I’m never good at it. Blaster Master:
But we don’t know if it was the Boss or the Vig. It could have been the Boss and would we know? No. Only the Boss and Vig know. So really, it doesn’t give anything away that I know of. I doubt whomever DIDN’T kill OAOW knows why the other did.
I’ve said it before (as have some others) and I’ll say it again…it’s not too hard to fathom the Boss might enjoy staying as a needle in a haystack. Rright now there are still way more Mafia than not. Could be two…but also could still just be one. I’m just saying I wouldn’t rule it out and you did ask what we’d do if we were Boss. That is what I’d do. I’d have killed and not recruited for the reasons I just gave in the first sentence.
If s/he stays one, we could just as easily keep killing ourselves as the Boss. EVENTUALLY Town will hit gold, yeah, which is why I’ve already said that I’d start recruiting on Night two.
It’s not impossible.
Which is why I’m leaning more toward the Vig not making the kill and being quiet and the Boss doing it. Obviously we see things from different viewpoints. I could tell that when you came in late wanting to know why we No-Lynched Day One. You asked what we’d do if we were the Boss. What about if we were the Vig? If I were Vig I would not have killed on Night One. So it’s not impossible for me to believe other people might think (or at least keep their mind open) like me.
As for your last part, I agree. I don’t know why we’re still going on about it. : p
Blaster I appreciate your math, but your making a big assumption that the Boss would act in a rational, “by the numbers” approach. While it might be the case, it ain’t necessarily so. First of all, a rational actor Boss is easier to catch because he’s predictable. Second, if the Boss is a newbie like me, he might not have any idea of the strategy. From what it sounds like, there are a lot of newbies in the game other than me. So while all of your logic makes perfect sense, and I tend to agree with it, I’m just saying that it doesn’t have to be this way.
Yeah. On the other hand, I think that a newbie Boss would be very inclined to try and recruit some experienced assistance, rather than blunder around killing folks.
Well, I’m still stumped. I’m ambivalent about HazelNutCoffee at the moment. Blaster Master makes some good points, but the pronoun thing was lame enough to provoke her reaction (I stuck with it because it seemed like the best thing going at the time).
I’m letting my vote sit on Pleo right now, but I’d rather not lynch a claimed Priest. If I had my way, the Vigilante would put him to the test tonight (the Vigilante and the Doctor both hold veto power over this plan, of course). I still think the Vig is a mixed blessing for the town, so trading him for a Priest would be a fair trade, and it would give Pleo a chance to throw his prayer out into the town in a Hail Mary pass to fluster the scum.
I’d *really *rather not get lynched myself though, so better Pleo than me.
I’ve quit the arguing in my defense because I’ve been down that road too many times. I might convince a few people to lay off, but others will find “flaws” in my defense and jump on. Whether I’m lynched or not, it’ll take a huge chunk of the Day.
I’ve explained why I used pronouns the way I did. I made my claim. I have nothing else to offer. Everyone should decide whether to vote for me or not (please, give your reasoning) and then move on. I do not want Day 2 to be all about me.
Right now my two top suspects are Hazel and Fruedian Slit, for a variety of reasons, but I am not sure which one I will vote for yet. I’m gonna do a re read of the game so far, take some notes and will post again later this afternoon.
Now I feel a little better on my vote for you. You want the Vig to off a Priest? The Vig does have an advantage other than just night-killing: he’s another definite pro-town role. If he kills a Priest, we lose one net unconvertable.
The value of a Vig in the endgame is also siginificantly more useful than in the early game, as faras I can tell.
Idle and Capn: I don’t think it’s impossible that the Boss may have killed, but I find it to be an unlikely scenario. If we assign an equal, or nearly equal probability to each of these, we gain zero information or very little information. Let’s examine the Information of the situation: I(X) = 1 - Σ(i = 1, n, H(x[sub]i[/sub])) where H(x[sub]i[/sub]) = -p(x[sub]i[/sub])log[sub]2[/sub]p(x[sub]i[/sub]). You will note that I([0.5, 0.5]) = 0 and I([1, 0]) = 1; thus, if we assign an equal probability to each scenario, we get no information, and if we can eliminate the alternatives we get perfect information. However, if we assign probabilities that don’t heavily distinguish, say [0.667, 0.333], we get 0.08, or still very little information. However, since I think it’s much more likely, say 90-95%, then we actually get some usable information (0.53, 0.71 respectively). The math may be a bit of overkill, but the underlying point is that by not using the reasoning available to estimate what is going on, we leave ourselves with very little information.
I want the Vig to off a scum. If I’m wrong, it’s better a Priest than, say, the Detective, since we only lose the Vigilante in the deal. And I think the Vigilante can easily harm the town more than help it in the deal.
Ignoring the math you do make sense. I thought you did before that too. I just wanted to point out the obvious…that it might not have gone down that way, even though it would be the optimal play. I ain’t sayin’, I’m just sayin’.
