[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
I would have not recruited and killed someone off to:
A. Do exactly what everyone thought I wouldn’t do
B. Keep myself hidden as well as possible in a large group of people
C. Hope the Vig was tempted to use their power too to do even more damage hopefully.
I would recruit down the road, like say, starting the next Night akin to what Town did with the No-Lynch the first night and then lynching someone. By then I’d hope I’d have a better idea who and who not I could maybe recruit,
So all in all, I still lean more toward what I had thought earlier.
However I do agree with your (and what NAF said) main point. Assuming there are now two scum doensn’t hurt. Either way, time will tell.
[/QUOTE]
We have to remember, this is NOT a single recruit game. If it were, I could agree with the idea that the Boss may delay recruiting for a little while. Since it is not…
A) I don’t get this point at all. Why is it necessarily in the Boss’s favor to do the opposite of what the town expects. Hey, in a typical mafia game, the town expects the scum to kill every night. Should they elect not to do that just because the town expects them not to? Expectations matter when it provides information, in this case, it actually provides LESS information if he recruits since it’s expected and IF there is a Vig and he kills, we’re left with doubt about whether he killed and the Vig either failed, didn’t attack, or doesn’t exist, or he recruited, and the Vig is a wild card. If he had recruited and no one died, we’d still not know if he tried to recruit or he tried to attack and hit the doctor (who was likely self protecting) and thus makes the doctor panic. However, if he killed, and the Vig killed, we’d know that he didn’t recruit so there’s still only one scum, we’d know there’s a Vig. IOW, the Boss killing last Night potentially yields an enormous amount of information for us and considering information is the mafia’s advantage, it would be foolish to do so, especially to instill chaos in an already chaotic situation.
B) I don’t get this point either. Keep himself hidden in a larger group? Right now, we still have a large number of players, so the change in the player pool by losing one is relatively small. But, he could accomplish the SAME task with a recruit, while increasing his numbers and preventing the possibility of an insta-loss Today. Look at it this way, if he recruits, and he gets lynched, the scum live on. If he recruits, and his recruit get’s lynched, it’s no different than if he’d killed, because the lynchee would have otherwise been a town. If he recruits and neither gets lynched, he’s up by 3 (down two townies, up one scum). If he doesn’t recruit, and he doesn’t get lynched, then he’s up 2 (down two townies). And if he doesn’t recruit, and he gets lynched, he loses. IOW, if he recruited, he’s at WORST back where he started, and at best up 3. If he did’t, he’s at worst LOST, and at best up two. And since the best and worst case scenarios match up, there’s actually ZERO advantage, and everything to lose.
C) With regard to the Vig, I already addressed this in point A. If the Vig had attacked, and done more damage, sure we’d have lost another townie, but we’d have gained an enormous amount more information, making the trade worth it. We’d KNOW there was a Vig, we’d KNOW the scum killed, and we’d KNOW there was only one scum left. Having good solid information like that is beneficial to the town and is worth the extra death.
While I appreciate your motivation, the reasoning just isn’t there to put more than a cursory glance to a kill scenario last Night.
