(Bleached)
You’re saying with this that your skin is more valuable than that of a claimed priest.
Priests are valuable because they force the Mafia to kill instead of recruiting. Why is your skin more valuable than that of a priest? (Hint : if you’re a vanilla Townie, it’s not).
Priests are valuable. Claimed priests are potentially worthless. The difference lies in whether you believe the claimer or not.
You know, just f’n lynch me already. :mad: I can’t do a f’n thing right apparently and EVERY damned thing I do is a scum tell. Everything. EVERY THING. What if I said that I don’t believe a damned word that Pleonast said? What if I said I was the Boss? What if I said I was the Bishop? What if I said the sky today is overcast where I am? What if I said that my mother is indeed my biological mother? What if I said I like chocolate? Is that a scum tell too?
Since this is looking god damned inevitable, I’m going to ask you all, after I’m gone, to please consider Hal Briston because he’s been unusually lurky. I wasn’t going to say anything about this because I thought I’d be accused of trying to distance myself. But now it doesn’t matter because I’m facing the inevitable.
NAF please just remember your words “classic scum tell.” And remember in future games that sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
With that, I shut up until I find out the results. In the unlikely event that I’m still around tomorrow, I’ll resume talking.
Ok, so this is the part where you guys realize I’m an idiot. I got my reasoning for CapnPitt mixed up with Koldanar’s odd FoS-filled post. but that was just a mis-recollection of my reasoning, not a mis-vote. My logic behind my vote for CapnPitt was that he got pretty defensive when approached with accusations of scummitude. Earlier in the game, Idle Thoughts pointed out that I was apparently riding the fence for not officially FoSing, but just casting aspersions. I said something like, “oh goodness, I meant to FoS. Here’s my FoS”. Lesson learned, everything’s cool. Then: CapnPitt does the same thing, but when confronted, he goes into uber-defensive mode. And stays there. As a newb who made the same newb mistake, his reaction rings falsely to me. I’m think he’s inexperienced scum, plain and simple.
“Unusually lurky”? I made a number of posts last week, went away for the weekend, came back and summed up my re-read yesterday. Not my most verbose performance, but it certainly wasn’t lurky. Did you just pull my name off the list of those who voted for you or something? I know this’ll be ironic after your last post, but I read that name-drop as a scum tell as well! 
That said, don’t sweat it if you’re town. Yes, of course we’d rather nail scum, but everyone knows that’s a longshot right now. If you’re town, then confirming that gives us info that we can work with. We’ll find out soon enough.
I’m not sure voting strategically for your own self-interest is a scum tell. I *know *I’m not scum. Pleo and CapnPitt, I’m not so sure (plus, I have a selfish motivation to remain playing). “Better him than me” isn’t a persuasive argument to anyone else, but it is an honest statement of motivation.
But, still, at this point, CapnPitt pings my scumdar almost as much as Pleonast does, and without the possibility of being a priest.
**
Unvote Pleonast
Vote CapnPitt**
Hey all…checking in, finally. So, I’m not with voting for either of our apparent major vote-getters at the moment. This only being my second full game, I see exactly whats happening to CapnPitt as a mirror of what got me killed in my first game. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for right now; the odds he really is town, or some power role, is large.
I still have my two FOSes noted; I’ll need to go over their posts before I vote (as my boss is hanging nearby, but I want to make the deadline) so I’ll check back in asap.
What, exactly, didn’t ring true about my FOS? I was making note of behavior that, to me, wasn’t exactly consistent with what I imagine a Townie to act. It’s by no means a vote for scum, just a note, and a request of more information from you. Perhaps FOS was a bit strong? I still wanted to know what was going on.
As long as the godfather is alive we have two major problems:
The scum’s numbers will increase and the town numbers will go down most nights. This is basically equivalent to a double night kill. So, if we lynch a scum during the day, and a town member is recruited during the night, we end the day in worse shape than we started it.
Almost all information is unreliable. We don’t know what info changed since it was discovered, or if the provider of said information is still on the side of angels. Lynching recruits everyday is unrealistic, since we never will have anything to go on. Once the godfather is gone, we can consolidate our knowledge, and crosscheck the power roles. Until then, we will be practically flying blind.
As Blaster said earlier, our greatest advantage is numbers. The scum’s greatest advantage is the godfather’s ability to recruit. We need to use our advantage to take out their advantage.
A lot of this moot though, since we are dealing with unknowns. Pleo could be the godfather who just got unlucky. He could likewise be town. Personally, I’m starting to believe Pleo is a protown role, but not necessarily a priest. Without a majority required and the scum too small to be able to sway the voting much, I’m left with just voting for whom I think is scummiest
Yeah, I was thinking about this while trying to figure out who to vote for. The scum have almost all the advantages. We have a couple of roles who can find things out, but they’re very unreliable. Not only do they not have a good hit rate, the information can become useless in one night. And they’re vulnerable to recruiting. The mob can just continue to grow and not bother killing anyone, and the only risk that has is the few scenarios that allow one of us to see it happen. Lynching helps the scum more often then not, but it’s the only weapon we have.
This is going to be rough. We just may lynch ourselves into a mob victory.
And I’m still suspicious of Pleo. I’ve been trying to figure out motives for his early claim both pro-town and pro-scum. I’m not coming up with any reason that’s pro-town. From the back of my reptilian brain here’s a pro-scum scenario:
Pleo was recruited and makes a pronoun slip. He tries to talk his way out of it but it’s not going well. He claims Priest, non-recruitable and not verifiable. Very convenient. But he could easily be found out by the detective or beat cops so why would he do that? Damage control; in order to be outed he has to be investigated, this means less of a chance that the Boss will be investigated and found toNight. Also one of the investigator’s has to come out of hiding to implicate him, BONUS.
vote Pleonast
FTR, defensiveness is, at best, a null tell. A scum will defend himself, because he doesn’t want to stop playing; a townie will defend himself, because he doesn’t want to stop playing. There is precisely ZERO difference in the potential motivation because it is, in fact, the same motivation.
FWIW, CapnPitt is SCREAMING newbie vanilla town to me. I’ve laid out my reasons why, and people keep voting him without regard to my reasoning. There’s a saying that goes (and no offense intended, but it’s how it goes): “Don’t attribute to malice that which can be attributed to incompetence”. That is to say, yes, he made a mistake, but it’s a mistake a new player would make, so don’t assume it MUST be a scummy mistake. At this point, due to small numbers, I’d find it FAR more likely a new player would play excessively conservative and under the radar, NOT openly making mistakes that likely his partner would have advised him against, were he scum.
I’m happy where my vote is. I don’t see CapnPitt as especially scummy; it all seems like newbie behavior, including over-defensiveness.
After the Day is over, I’ll go back and see who hasn’t posted much. Lurking at this point in the game is very anti-Town. One of our best ways of catching recruited scum will be changes in motivations. A player who hasn’t posted much at the beginning, when they’re almost certainly Town, will leave little for us to compare with.
I’m stating this publicly for two reasons: 1) to encourage Townies to post more to make themselve a less appetizing recruitment target, 2) to discourage the Mafia from recruiting lurkers, since they will be scrutinized more.
On preview: I see Blaster agrees with me about Capn.
And, sinjin (“I’m not coming up with any reason that’s pro-town”), I’ve posted my reasoning for claiming when I did. You could at least acknowledge it as possible, if even you don’t believe me.
Actually, I see “rather him than me” as entirely reasonable.
Where it becomes anti-Town behaviour is where the player so voting is voting to lynch a power role of his own team while he himself has a less valuable role. This is one of the reasons i nearly voted you, after all.
Now we don’t know Pleo’s role; all we know is what he claimed. So we have to assess whether we think Pleo is telling the truth, what value he offers the Town if the claim is true and what problems he will cause if his claim is false.
If Pleo is a Priest, then his value is clear. As he cannot be recruited the Mafia will have to play around him, risking running into his one-shot power use when they recruit and (sooner or later) killing him - using the inferior technique and accepting the slower advance towards their goal to do so. And, so long as he remains our only claimed role, they scum have to contend with the possibility that he is being protected against nightkills too.
If Pleo is false-claiming then we want to kill him as soon as possible. But we can’t afford to throw away the advantages above, which is what makes such a false claim viable. I’m choosing at this point not to lynch Pleo because our investigative resources may be able to confirm his claim. If they can’t we can review the question in a Day or two. It’s not going to go away.
On preview, Blaster also makes a good point.So I’ll consider unvoting over the next hour (we have just under 2 to go) and if so who (if anyone) to switch to.
You lay a pretty looking scenario for scum well, but it really doesn’t mean anything without being compared to the motivation if he’s NOT scum. We CANNOT get stuck in a trap where we’re only examining one side of the issue. IOW, that’s a fine scum plan, but what if he IS a priest, is the motivation there for his behavior? I think it is, as I laid out in previous posts.
Look at it this way, if he’s the Boss, then the Detective can investigate him and pretty safely trade his death for the Boss tomorrow… we’d have a maximum of TWO scum left, besides the boss, with all of our power roles out of 20 people. IOW, if he’s the Boss, by claiming Priest, he’s handed us the game. OTOH, if he’s a recruit, he can wait, any investigation of him can sit by until it’s needed to be revealed or he makes another mistake. We can ALWAYS kill him another Day if more evidence comes to forefront. IOW, even if we think he’s likely scum, unless we think he’s the boss (which he almost certainly is not), weighed against the possibility that he’s a still somewhat useful power role, he’s not worth lynching at this point, the risk is not worth the reward.
CapnPitt (8) - NAF1138, chrisk, MHaye, Hal Briston, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Diomedes, Menocchio
Pleonast (7) - Hockey Monkey, (Menocchio*), Freudian Slit, (bufftabby), (Diomedes), (Millit the Frail), OneCentStamp, Darth Sensitive, CapnPitt, sinjin
Menocchio (4) - (Diomedes*), dotchan, (CapnPitt), Pleonast, Idle Thoughts, Blaster Master
Freudian Slit (2) - Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger
OneCentStamp (1) - HazelNutCoffee
HazelNutCoffee (0) - (Blaster Master), (chrisk)
bufftabby (0) - (Idle Thoughts)
Has yet to cast a vote on Day 2:
Koldanar
No current vote:
Millit the Frail
The day ends in less than 90 minutes at 11am CST.
I don’t think CapnPitt is scum and I’m sure as hell not tying it up. I was suspicious of dotchan earlier, and she’s as good as any random person. No offense, dotchan, just trying to register that I’m not happy with any of the top choices.
Vote dotchan
People also keep saying a claimed Priest is useless, I thoroughly disagree. He may not be AS useful, but he’s still useful. Any claimed roll will eventually be killed or confirmed. If Pleo is killed by scum, he’s served his purpose as far as his role is concerned. But his advantage lies in the fact that, if he’s telling the truth, he CAN’T be recruited, so if we can get any measurable amount of confirmation on him, the scum HAVE to kill him.
At this point, we have a numerical advantage, but leveraging isn’t just throwing bodies at the gallows until we get it right, and hope we maintain a numerical advantage. We leverage our numerical advantage by trying to gain information that will move players from the unconfirmed pool (potentially town or scum) to a confirmed pool (definitely town). The larger the confirmed pool grows, the smaller the hiding place for scum, and the less they can afford to take stabs at finding power roles, and the more they’ll have to focus on eliminating confirmed townies to avoid being out numbered by confirmed townies.
Thus, if we can ever establish any credible reason to believe Pleo was ever town, he will ALWAYS be town, since a Priest is unrecruitable, thus making his end-game value extraordinarily high. Do NOT underestimate how important that aspect of his power is.
(Emphasis mine)
I was coming here to make a final look over the case for CapnPitt. I was following most of the you being protown arguments. Never mind. My vote stands
I’m not feeling the **CapnPitt ** lynch. He’s emanating townieness from his defense posts. Remember **faithfool’s ** frustration?