Mafia: The Mob is Recruiting [Game Finished]

[MHaye]

@Blaster Master

Still, if you’ll recall my pseudo-random thesis from previous games (I’ll re-explain upon request), I seriously doubt the Boss will pick a single strategy for his recruitment patterns.

BlaM, while I think I recollect this, there are several people I’m sure don’t, as I only recall seeing it discussed in off-board games. Would you mind doing a short version for those who haven’t read the games in question?

[Hal_Briston]

@bufftabby

I think that’s an oversimplification. Like I said, you’ve been fluffy. It’s not a simple case of post counts. It’s content, or lack therof. I think you’re obfuscating.

That’s nice. Although the fact that you’re responding to that particular part of my post make it pretty clear to me that you feel I was in some way addressing you there. I’m at a bit of a loss as to why you think that’s vote-worthy. Continuing to push this non-issue is what looks like obfuscation to me.

Don’t get me wrong – my gut is that you’re town. I’m thinking that you’re looking to make an impact in your first game and you’re trying to contribute as much as possible, and that’s a very good play-style. However, voting simply because someone doesn’t share that play-style tells me that it’s still broken.

[fluiddruid]

By my count, the following players are at risk of a lurker modkill at Dusk.

Hockey Monkey (2 posts)
chrisk (1 post)
Santo Rugger (0 posts)

[NAF1138]

@Drain Bead

Another thing, NAF, that I just thought of while re-reading my post…you mention how you think that hotflungwok and BlaM haven’t been recruited yet, while Santo Rugger and Darth Sensitive might have been. I know I already asked you how you got that feeling…but maybe a better question to ask is how do you know that none of them were the Boss and therefore the ones doing the recruiting?

I don’t. If one of them was the boss it will take a different type of analysis to find them. And it isn’t so much that Santo or Darth might have, as it is they are a big question mark for me.

I will answer your previous post in a different post.

[Drain_Bead]

@NAF1138

I don’t. If one of them was the boss it will take a different type of analysis to find them. And it isn’t so much that Santo or Darth might have, as it is they are a big question mark for me.

I will answer your previous post in a different post.

That’s cool. I wasn’t trying to cast aspersions on you or smudge you by asking that, I just realized after I re-read that I was missing the forest for the trees on that one, and figured it was a question that needed asking.

[NAF1138]

Snipped:

@Blaster Master

Similarly, if we’re aware of that, we may rightfully be more suspicious of those individuals, but the cost is greater if we’re incorrect because a more experienced player is probably more of an asset to the town than a less experienced player.

So in essence, you end up with a greater risk / greater reward scenario versus a lesser risk / lesser reward scenario which, ultimately, will tend to balance out to be about equal. OTOH, this information may be useful later on when we’ve caught the boss and can make judgments about his play style and possibly infer his recruiting strategy, then we may be able to decide which strategy he favors.

I will make you a deal, if the whole town starts blindly following what I say, I will switch my methodology. None of this is supposed to be more than a jumping off point for analysis, and none of it is a substitue for good analysis. But in the absense of infomation, what I am trying to do is generate some information.

I am also hoping that by publicly posting a list of people likely to be recruited, that it might give the scum pause when they think about possibly recruiting the people on the list. I think if we get the people on said list talking enough, it will be relativly easy to see when they make the subconscious shift in their behavior. This is why I think we need to kill people who aren’t talking much. I think that at least 1 of the people on my list has already been recruited, and that is why none of them should be allowed to survive until endgame.

We have the numbers, we can afford the losses, and I think that the vig should be killing every Night. This is one of the few games of mafia where numbers hurt us.

WE NEED PEOPLE TO DIE EVERY NIGHT, AND WE NEED TO LYNCH EVERY DAY.

If we don’t start getting more bodies piling up soon, we won’t be able to find the scum amidst the noise.

[Drain_Bead]

@fluiddruid

By my count, the following players are at risk of a lurker modkill at Dusk.

Hockey Monkey (2 posts)
chrisk (1 post)
Santo Rugger (0 posts)

I’m not sure if this question was already asked and answered, but will you be prodding those people with enough time for them to get into the thread?

I especially worry about Santo Rugger, because it isn’t like him to miss a whole game Day.

[NAF1138]

ok, I think I answered most of this in my last post, so I’m going to snip a bit. Let me know if you have unanswered questions.

@Drain Bead

At the time, I didn’t think you should make your list, but I didn’t want to come out and say that, because I wanted to see your motivations. A pro-town response might have been something like “I’ll keep that to myself in order to not give the scum ideas, at least for now. Perhaps later my list will be more pertinent, but now it’s just too early for it.”

So, my initial response was pro-town, but me changing my mind after a discussion of ideas is…???

@Drain Bead

And if the vig takes out a power role because they followed that list when they had no better idea, rather than just…not killing? The Vig will do what the Vig wants to do, that’s for sure. I just hope the Vig doesn’t want to kill people just because they happen to be folks that NAF thinks should be recruited at some point, whether or not they already have been.

Too bad really. It happens. The town shouldn’t be so reliant on power roles, and I really believe that the vig should be killing every Night. We need to dwindle our numbers if we are going to stand a chance.

@Drain Bead

Night One, I’d choose an experienced player, sure. Every following Night, I’d be trying to sniff out useful power roles, regardless of who they are and how experienced they are. But that’s just me.

And if you didn’t think you found one? Me I would go for experiance again.

@Drain Bead

Um…the person I’m voting for? Who, incidentally, didn’t make your list, not that it means anything one way or the other.

Thatsa smudge

@Drain Bead

Not that I agree or disagree with you, but what gives you this feeling? I have an idea, but I’m curious as to what you think.

If you don’t minds I will save this one for a little later. ToDay if you really want it, but later.

@Drain Bead

Hell, I’m finding almost everyone suspicious at this point.

I am finding very few people suspicious. Why are you finding suspicion in everything?

@Drain Bead

I’m having trouble parsing that first sentence there, and I see no problem with puzzling the game out loud–that tends to be my playstyle as well. And I totally agree with you that more people need to be doing this–I agree with your general idea that the more people post analysis, the more we’ll be able to see later if they’ve been recruited.

Yeah, that was a bad one, I will get back to that one too in a little bit, if you don’t mind.

huh, didn’t snip as much as I thought.

[Drain_Bead]

@NAF1138

WE NEED PEOPLE TO DIE EVERY NIGHT, AND WE NEED TO LYNCH EVERY DAY.

If we don’t start getting more bodies piling up soon, we won’t be able to find the scum amidst the noise.

I’m not sure if I agree with that, at least at this point in the game. At the very least, when we lynch someone during the Day, they have a chance to roleclaim. I’m really concerned that with the relatively small number of scum we have right now, a Vig kill is more likely to hit a town power role than a scum. Again, I’m not a math fiend, so I can’t really tell you at what point I think it would be worth it for the Vig to kill every night no matter what. I also think the Vig should make his or her own decisions each night about what to do–none of this all-caps all-or-nothing panic. If they have a good feeling that they’ll hit scum, kill, and if not, don’t. In the end, though, I don’t envy the Vig in any of these games. Wasn’t it BlaM who killed the Cop on the first night when he was one?

[oog]NAF, have you and I ever agreed on game strategy?[/oog]

[Drain_Bead]

@NAF1138

So, my initial response was pro-town, but me changing my mind after a discussion of ideas is…???

I’m not going to say it’s scummy because I don’t think it necessarily (see my above oog point about you and I constantly disagreeing on strategy), I just wish you hadn’t done it. Do I think it’s damning? No. We can’t really predict what the Boss is going to do–both BlaM and I had different ideas about how to go about recruitment than you do. And because of this discussion, we’ve all given the scum ideas on how to go about doing it, which has played right into their hands, especially if we’re dealing with inexperienced scum who may not be sure how to play this role. I just wish that ball had never started rolling.

Too bad really. It happens. The town shouldn’t be so reliant on power roles, and I really believe that the vig should be killing every Night. We need to dwindle our numbers if we are going to stand a chance.

I already sort of addressed this point, but I’d love to see a BlaM-style math analysis (with the Cliff Notes version, natch) on whether or not this is a good idea. And now BlaM is probably going to come along and say “It’s not possible, math dummy!” Or something like that.

[quoteAnd if you didn’t think you found one? Me I would go for experiance again.[/quote]

When I was scum, I always thought I found one, even if I didn’t. Ask Roosh.

Thatsa smudge

And here I was thinking that adding “not that it means anything one way or the other” was so I specifically didn’t smudge you, because it doesn’t mean anything one way or the other. I was just a bit annoyed that I had to answer that question.

I am finding very few people suspicious. Why are you finding suspicion in everything?

I’m not sure. Last game I was having trouble because I was agreeing with everyone on everything, and didn’t find people suspicious enough. And then I died very quickly, without even really a chance to show up and defend myself. It turned out that my gut OMGUS instinct in that game was right, and that the people who jumped on me initially were scum trying to get a bandwagon started. What does that mean in this game? Well, it makes me a bit more suspicious of other people’s motivations, that’s for sure. Am I right? I dunno. But I trust nobody at this point. If there’s one thing I know about this game, people aren’t what they seem to be.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

After consideration of both sinjin’s analysis, and hotflungwok’s response to my response to sinjin, as well as my consideration of likely recruit suspects (his past history of always being a townie as well)… I’m going to leap about the ** Lynch:Hal Briston ** wagon

[Hockey_Monkey]

You won’t have to worry about mod-snuffing me. I’ve been barely keeping tabs on the thread because of some long overdue excitement in my real life. I’ve been reading along today, and I commented on what I wanted to comment about, but there is more below. I have no clue who I am going to vote for. I’m not all that hot to trot for Pleonast toDay like I was yesterDay.

If the Boss is someone with little mafia experience, I can see him wanting to recruit more experienced players, especially those with a proven scum track record. If the Boss is one with experience already I would think that he would want to pick from those less likely to garner suspicion. If it were me, for instance, I probably would have picked someone like bufftabby, because she doesn’t appear threatening. The newbies can be taught, and we have no preconcieved notions of their playstyle, so I think that it’s not out of the realm of possiblity that any one of us could be picked to be recruited at any time.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@NAF1138

WE NEED PEOPLE TO DIE EVERY NIGHT, AND WE NEED TO LYNCH EVERY DAY

You’re a vicious bastard, aren’t you? I think you’re right, although I still don’t love the idea of the vig killing off unrecruitables.

[NAF1138]

@Diomedes

You’re a vicious bastard, aren’t you? I think you’re right, although I still don’t love the idea of the vig killing off unrecruitables.

I am.

I think we got off to a bad start, and I am willing to admit that I was part of that problem. We shouldn’t have no lynched Day 1. There should have been more talks about claims etc Day 1. As far as I am concerned this just became Day 1 for a normal mafia game with 3 scum and a whole lot of town fire power. So, let the fire power fire away, and try to shrink the pool of people the scum have to hide in. It is their biggest advantage at this point.

[chrisk]

Well, I do feel like I’m not sure what to say for this and one other post before tomorrow at noon. Sort of like one of those parties where I feel like the odd guy out. Well, I’ll start by sharing my thoughts of everyone who’s been on the vote list aside from Meno.

Hal Briston and NAF1138 I sort of like from following other threads that they’ve been in, and don’t want to see either of them dead without a smoking gun of their scum-ness. (Of course, they’re probably both clever enough in slightly different ways to keep that gun from smoking too hard, which could work against me.)

Drain Bead I don’t have any particularly strong feelings about, except for some sympathy because [she]'s a new substitute and already getting piled on.

I still sort of trust Pleonast’s invocation of the church at this point.

Hawkeyeop and hotflunkwok don’t really ping my reactions either way at this point. I wouldn’t mind seeing either of them get lynched in the absence of more promising targets.

[bufftabby]

@Hockey Monkey

If it were me, for instance, I probably would have picked someone like bufftabby, because she doesn’t appear threatening.

I’m gonna take this as a compliment. But I assure you I’m quite vicious. Grr…

And is it really that obvious that I’m a girl? <Checks pants> oh boy, I left my vulva hanging out again, didn’t I? <Tuck in> [deep voice]Now, where were we?[/dv]

So, Hal, since you seem to think I’m having trouble telling the difference between scum, my bum, and a hole in the ground, why don’t you tell me who I should vote forsince I’m soooo off-base and out of sync with reality for choosing you?

And just so you know, I’ve got a big ole “nanny nanny boo boo” song and dance routine I’ve been practicing for when you turn up as scum. It involves much pointing and laughing. If I’m wrong, I can teach it to you, and you can do it in my direction.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

@bufftabby

I’m gonna take this as a compliment. But I assure you I’m quite vicious. Grr…

And is it really that obvious that I’m a girl? <Checks pants> oh boy, I left my vulva hanging out again, didn’t I? <Tuck in> [deep voice]Now, where were we?[/dv]

So, Hal, since you seem to think I’m having trouble telling the difference between scum, my bum, and a hole in the ground, why don’t you tell me who I should vote forsince I’m soooo off-base and out of sync with reality for choosing you?

And just so you know, I’ve got a big ole “nanny nanny boo boo” song and dance routine I’ve been practicing for when you turn up as scum. It involves much pointing and laughing. If I’m wrong, I can teach it to you, and you can do it in my direction.

This one’s got a future with us, I think.

[Santo_Rugger]

@bufftabby

<snip>
I also find it strange that we’ve not yet heard from Santo Rugger today, but I’m reserving my judgment on that until he returns and explains.

Count on me flooding the thread again Tomorrow, if I’m still around. I tend not to pay attention at Night, and then the Chinese Town Square game offboard was getting intense, and then I needed a break from Mafia for a bit and didn’t realize the Day was almost over.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Drain Bead

<snip>
I especially worry about Santo Rugger, because it isn’t like him to miss a whole game Day.

All you people worrying about me gives me this warm fuzzy feeling. I don’t have too much to say at the moment, but I’ll post some thoughts and a vote in my next post.

[Santo_Rugger]

Okay, just some quick thoughts. I’d love to vote, but can’t seem to find a vote count in the last few pages. Am I going blind or something?

Second, three players have been pinging me. It’s no surprise about who they are, and for those of us who have followed previous games, you’ll remember that I’ve thought of** BlaM, Naf, and Pleo** as “suspicious” regardless of their alignment or mine.

Third, I think that a powerful, recruitable role should just suck it up and take the lynch instead of claiming. Otherwise, we save them the lynch, and they get made Capo that Night. Bad, bad idea. Better to be dead than to be scum in this game.

Fourth, please forgive my absence Today, I just needed a break from Mafia. As said earlier, if I’m alive Tomorrow I’ll be back to my usual boisterous self.