Er, do you think bad things happening is likely?
Holy Fing S! Are people FINALLY looking at Darth Sensitive? Obviously, the part tying me to him is simply confirmation bias on her part, but he is amongst my top two candidates for the Boss, and might actually refocus the town in a positive direction and not on a Drain Bead lynch tomorrow that my lynch would likely portend. So…
Unvote Pleonast
Vote Darth Sensitive
With two and a half hours to go, it’s now a tie.
I am convinced that BlaM is scum, because the events of Today make no sense if he is town, no matter whether Drain Bead has been recruited or not.
Assuming BlaM is Town, if Drain is still unrecruited, then Today makes no sense. There is no mechanism in the game that would allow a Townie player to return a false Mafia result to an unrecruited Detective, so Drainbead would be lying through her teeth, doing nothing but hurt her own side knowingly. I reject that hypothesis outright.
If Drainbead is recruited then it makes more sense, but the cost to the Mafia is horrendous and the gain strictly limited. If BlaM is lynched and comes up Townie, then we know that (a) Drainbead was recruited because a Townie has no reason to lie, and (b) the Mafia were in trouble Yesterday to try such a desperate gambit. Attention will immediately focus on Darth Sensitive and Millit the Frail, probably lynching Darth then Millit if Darth is not the boss.
I don’t see that the Mafia can gain from this sequence unless Darth and Millit are both Town, because it buys three days for the Mafia to build their numbers.
Actually that does make sense; but it would take the devious mind of someone like BlaM to think it out, and we’re assuming BlaM is town in this scenario. Plus, there are too many places where it could go wrong.
If we assume BlaM is already recruited, however, this makes more sense whether Drain Bead is recruited or not.
Clearly, if Drain is still on our side then she found what she said, and just came straight out with it, knowing that we expect a prompt report and bursting with the good news of finding a scum type. Just what I’d expect of a really town player who has that level of news.
If Drain is now a Mafiate, then this is a gambit to lure us away from lynching the Boss, and we need to look carefully at candidates. I believe that procedure will be helped by knowing BlaM’s alignment, which is why I want to lynch him Today.
I could also accept a Darth Sensitive lynch, because if Drainbead has been recruited then it’s quite possible that Darth is the Boss. On the whole, I’d rather lynch BlaM, which will yield some information about the Mafia’s desperation levels if he comes up Town, clearly identify a recruit, and give us pointers to the Boss; while if he comes up scum we keep some pressure on the Mafia by paring their numbers back thus forcing them to be more active to achieve their goals.
My vote remains where it is. I’m unlikely to be online much between now and the end of the Day as RL priorities must be attended to.
I apologize for not posting yesterday; real life got in the way.
For those complaining that I’m not confirmed Townie: no one (including me) is claiming that. The purpose of Drain’s and my dance was to prove what our roles were. And if you found it irritating, sorry, but it was necessary. Neither of us could trust the other and the order we took should be obviously better for the Town.
Anyway, while I am Townie now (trying to Capo me would have been an extremely long shot for Boss), I am certainly suspect from now on, at least until the Capo is lynched.
I encourage those currently voting for Blaster to switch to whoever you think is the Boss instead. Killing recruited Mafia is only a delaying tactic. And in this game with unlimited recruitment, the Mafia wins by default in the long run. We need to lynch the Boss and each Day we fail to (whether by lynching scum or Town) gives them an advantage.
If NAF hadn’t gotten lynched and I had, you wouldn’t be blasting him for the same thing, because you have what seems to be a massive hardon for lynching me. Part of me voting for NAF was that I like playing and want to keep doing it. The other part is exactly the reason I said I did it. From the info I had, lynching him had a chance of lynching scum of (pulled out of thin air) 10%. Lynching me had a chance of zero percent.
Same thing for the day before - I won’t stand idly by with a vote on HNC or Pleo or Fluid, who aren’t in contention, when there is a vote that I have an opinion on. I guess I meant to say that he should have voted for who he thought was scummiest at the top, but I didn’t.
hotflung; anything can happen in this game. I meant to post that before yesterDay ended but missed the deadline.
I wish everyone would read MHaye’s last post. He expressed exactly how I feel. I am just not getting the Darth Sensitive is definately the Boss train. If we lynch Blaster and he is town we get some information. If we lynch Darth and he is town we gain nothing.
Well hell…I’ve been convinced of DS’ scumminess since his pre-Dot-lynch comment. I’m certainly down with this idea…
Unvote Blaster Master
Vote Darth Sensitive
Not that I believe a bit of what Blaster is trying to sell, but it is kinda funny watching him try and build plausible deniability like that…
No, we will have reduced the crowd the Boss is hiding in. By lynching Blaster, we give the Boss another Night to recruit. Since the Boss’s chance of recruiting is better than our odds of lynching Mafia, it’s to their benefit to lynch recruited scum.
IOW, you don’t necessarily buy that he’s likely to be the Boss?
Sounds like you know he’s not the Boss and are setting up to defend yourself up to wash your hands clean of his blood if he turns up town.
Darth Sensitive (9): (Pleonast), Santo Rugger, HazelNutCoffee, OneCentStamp, Koldanar, Pleonast, Menocchio, bufftabby, Hotflungwok, Blaster Master
Blaster Master (8): Drain Bead*, (Koldanar), Hockey Monkey, (OneCentStamp), (bufftabby), sinjin, Hal Briston, (HazelNutCoffee), dotchan II, Millit the Frail, USCDiver, MHaye, (Menocchio), (Hotflungwok)
bufftabby (1): Hawkeyeop
Pleonast (0): (Menocchio), (Darth Sensitive)
Millit the Frail (0): (Blaster Master)
Menocchio (0): (Pleonast)
Drain Bead (0): (Drain Bead)
No current vote:
Darth Sensitive
The day ends on Tuesday, March 25 at 11am CST.
NAF had been arguing all along that he thought you were scummy. His vote for you wasn’t out of self-preservation. Therein lies the difference for me.
NAF knew he was town was well, yet he was so frustrated by the whole ridiculousness of the situation that he voted for himself to keep himself from becoming this game’s brewha (ie, a black hole of discussion).
Townies need to focus on what’s best for town, not on self-preservation. There have been several cases in the early mafia games where townies acted simply to survive and screwed the town over in the process.
Well, with 20 minutes to go -
Vote: Blaster Master
Pleo, that presupposes that we have no reason to suppose BlaM is not recruited. We have every reason to believe just that.
The only reason to lynch someone other than a known Mafiate is that you believe the target is the Boss. If you don’t at this stage taking the bird in the hand keeps pressure on the Mafia, and gives us a small chance of reducing the numbers.
Fluiddruid, I have Hotflungwok voting for Darth Sensitive in post 1759.
EBWOP : My mistake : the missed vote change is Hal Briston (1767) not Hotflungwok.
:smack:
Not that it matters, but FTR, self-preservation is a null-tell. Even a vanilla townie is not being unreasonable to preserve himself when faced with a lynch by voting for an unclaimed townie. First of all, a vanilla townie has 100% certainty that he is pro-town aligned. Second, barring a claim from the other individual, which should be made if he’s about to be lynched, he cannot necessary have any greater certainty that the other person is pro-town. Thus, because the lynch of both results in an identical cost if incorrect, even a 1% chance of the other person being scum is sufficient logical reason to vote for self preservation.
Of course, this behavior is likely indistinguishable from scum motivation. Hence, this is a null-tell, and it is illogical to use it to support or argue against a lynch of that player.
If you want to make a case against Darth Sensitive, fine… there’s plenty of logic to indict him, but self-preservation is not part of it. PLEASE look at the case I made against him if/when I get lynched Tonight. It may well help you find one of the other recruits after Drain Bead.
At least you’re not concerned about people voting for FluidDruid, like Darth is a few posts up! I do, of course, agree that we shouldn’t lynch the mod, but I’m not exactly concerned about it! 
Oh, wow… might I actually survive that day? It’s nice to see a few people wised up.
You will of course remember our own esteemed mod implying that DB was scum before this day even began! 
Good luck. Hopefully you all know what to do…
Unvote Darth Sensitive
Vote Blaster Master
Not a good move, guys! I hope you’re right. If you’re wrong, lynch Blaster tomorrow. PLEASE.