Magnus Carlsen declines to defend chess title

[Tamerlane]

@Saint_Cad

I have always felt, justified by no information, that Carlsen doesn’t want to play Nepo for the world championship. Look at the way he dominated Nepo last time and with his rating and length of time as WC, playing Nepo is nothing but a potential for a loss with no upside

I have to admit I do find this very slightly mystifying, because I’m not sure I see the downside of playing either. Make some money playing a game you presumably enjoy. It’s not like he’s a boxer risking a disfiguring injury even in victory .

I mean I’m not particularly down on him - do want you want, says I. And he’s rich enough to do what he wants. But I utterly lack the competitive professional streak that would compel me to say that even someone at the upper echelon of my profession was just unworthy of competing against me. I mean just beat the other dude handily and go about your business. Or lose and make life more exciting. The emotional logic of his position just doesn’t really resonate with me.

[borschevsky]

@Tamerlane

I have to admit I do find this very slightly mystifying, because I’m not sure I see the downside of playing either.

The downside I think is that playing would mean being locked in a room studying for six months. Prep for these matches is a huge grind, and I can completely understand not being motivated to do it. The monetary payoff is nice, but I’m not sure he’d net more than what he’ll make just playing normal events and working on other business. The potential increase to his stature as a player is pretty small too - everyone already considers him to be clearly the best player in the world, and he’s 5-0 in WC matches. Upping that to 6-0 by re-beating Nepo doesn’t change much.

[Tamerlane]

@borschevsky

The downside I think is that playing would mean being locked in a room studying for six months. Prep for these matches is a huge grind, and I can completely understand not being motivated to do it

Okay, well that was something I did not know and completely changes the equation. I wouldn’t want to do that for minimal reward either. Thanks for the more informed take .

[Mijin]

@Saint_Cad

I have always felt, justified by no information, that Carlsen doesn’t want to play Nepo for the world championship. Look at the way he dominated Nepo last time and with his rating and length of time as WC, playing Nepo is nothing but a potential for a loss with no upside. And notice Carlsen made it official after Nepo won the Candidate’s.

I’m not saying your theory is wrong, but if Carlsen is thinking that way, I don’t think he’s right.

Versus Nepo, he drew 5 games followed by the longest game in chess championship history. It was an exhausting near 8 hour battle, which Nepo had winning chances in.
Following his defeat in that game, Nepo basically collapsed and made several blunders in the losses that followed.

So I think the final score flatters Carlsen a little. Of course my money would have been on Carlsen to retain his title, but I’d only put the odds something like 75:25 chance in his favor.

[Saint_Cad]

I saw some odds for the 2023 World Championship and surprisingly Ding is the favorite at -200 with Nepo at +145.

[Snarky_Kong]

Ding is higher rated.

[BigT]

@borschevsky

@Tamerlane

I have to admit I do find this very slightly mystifying, because I’m not sure I see the downside of playing either. ⁢

The downside I think is that playing would mean being locked in a room studying for six months. Prep for these matches is a huge grind, and I can completely understand not being motivated to do it. The monetary payoff is nice, but I’m not sure he’d net more than what he’ll make just playing normal events and working on other business. The potential increase to his stature as a player is pretty small too - everyone already considers him to be clearly the best player in the world, and he’s 5-0 in WC matches. Upping that to 6-0 by re-beating Nepo doesn’t change much. ⁢

But what does he gain from still playing other matches, then?

[Snarky_Kong]

I’m not a chess professional, but I imagine preparing for a single player is significantly different than preparing for a large number of players all of whom aren’t only playing you. It seems like the former is a lot more dependent on prep and the latter, since you don’t know who you’re playing, a lot more dependent on accumulated skill/talent.