Maine Caucuses

There was an incredible turnout today. http://www.wcsh6.com/news/maine-dem-caucuses-cause-headache-as-thousands-show-up-to-vote-/70710469
I waited in line for three hours at the Portland caucus, and there was a line a half mile long behind me at the time I got into the voting station. Bernie Sanders seems to be doing quite well here, based on towns that have already reported and the people I talked to at the caucus.

Of course Bernie Sanders will win Maine; its one of the most liberal of the blue states, and almost no blacks/hispanics there.

By the 538 metric 50/50 overall (and from here he needs to do more like 53/47 to make for being behind) would be a 27 point win there.

I would unsurprised if he hits that and gets 16 delegates to 9 for Hillary. A gain of 7 and ending up the 3 of 4 states wins over the weekend catching up by 1 delegate.

And then comes Michigan and Mississippi …


Sanders wins with a 28 point lead!

Looks like he netted eight delegates, meaning for the whole weekend, Hillary and he tied exactly in delegates. But she started the weekend with a 200 delegate lead, so it just makes the hill steeper for Bernie.

If I am reading right the total vote will end up being about 4000 votes! And as noted is felt to be “incredible turnout”!

Anyway it seems like he is going to hit that 50/50 metric of +27 or even marginally better. Well done. Yes, no progress made … but he’s winning states!

Michigan’s 538 50/50 metric would be him winning by 1. To make progress catching up he needs to do more than the 50/50 mark, more than marginally better. He’s polling 20 points behind and it is pretty well polled. If it ends up there instead of splitting the 130 pretty evenly or him marginally more (being on path to make up ground) it will be 78 to 52, her gaining 26 more of a delegate lead over him right there. (And that does not account for Mississippi, where she is averaging a 40 point lead, higher than her 50/50 there as well.)

The ~4000 votes refers to the delegates voting at the state convention.
Over 47k people voted in the caucuses today. http://bangordailynews.com/2016/03/06/politics/bernie-sanders-handily-defeats-hillary-clinton-in-maine-caucuses/

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.