And the Tigers just lost their shortstop Iglesias for the first half of the year. 
Seems like the kitties are starting off the year like the Wings.
Damn. He’s a joy to watch play. Hope he comes back completely.
That probably answers the Stephen Drew question, anyway.
Sad for Iggy, but, as a Red Sox fan, I’m excited about the news that Drew may finally be signed, giving another draft pick to Boston.
If Drew does sign with the Tigers, the Sox will pick 24th, 32nd and 34th, overall, in this June’s Amateur Draft, PLUS they’ll be allocated bonus money(~$3 mil) for each of those 2 additional comp picks.
Well, no, they weren’t, if they knew he planned to reject it, something that obviously they may actually have firsthand knowledge of. If the Mariners offered him something reasonable and he said “Screw you, I’m gonna go somewhere and get paid” they could extend a qualifying offer, knowing he would turn it down, and give themselves a shot at a free draft pick. They knew Morales’s bargaining position.
Even given your hypothetical case, it was still a foolish risk to get stuck with Morales for $14.1 mil – that’s a big downside, and there’s really little chance at an upside, because Morales isn’t going to get any team to lose a draft pick for a DH. If a team needs a DH, they’ll just wait until the June draft and sign Morales to a 4 month contract without losing a pick.
Dave Cameron’s (USS Mariner, Fangraphs) take from last August
You are assuming facts not in evidence as well as making the assumption that the parties involved knew in November what we now know in March. You don’t know what Morales’s bargaining position was and so you do not know what the risk was.
Nor for that matter was it at all obvious that no one else would offer Morales a contract. It’s clearly been a surprise to everyone involved how little interest many of the major free agents have gotten. It’s perfectly reasonable to surmise that the Mariners were both fully aware Morales would not lower himself to signing a qualifying offer, but at the same time conclude (as a lot of teams did with a lot of guys, I think) that Morales would be overvalued by someone else.
It’s very clear that the impact of the new free agency rules and their impact on draft picks, as well as the market in general, were clearly misunderstood by a lot of parties - teams, players and agents - this past offseason. It’s not just Morales and Stephen Drew; look at how Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz signed one-year deals where five years ago players of their notoriety would have gotten multi-year deals for sure. The new rules are having remarkable effect (and may lead to labor arguments.) But the one piece of information the Mariners likely had that you and I do not was Morales’s likelihood of returning to Seattle for a one year deal. For all you know there was essentially no risk at all.
I find it weird you’d cite Dave Cameron as an authoritative opinion here when Cameron was, you know, wrong. He predicted Morales would take the offer, and Morales did not. Cameron, like you and I, doesn’t know Kendrys Morales and doesn’t know what communication took place between the Mariners and Morales. Seattle clearly had a damn good sense Morales would not accept it, and they were right.
Morales, in all likelihood, as a grossly exaggerated sense of his own value. Athletes are, after all, prone to focusing on what they can do, not what they cannot, and I imagine Morales is very surprised a guy with impressive totals of home runs and RBIs isn’t getting a lot of interest, while most MLB organizations now look at him and say “yeah, he hit 22 home runs but he can’t do anything else.”
What I did know in November was that the only DH to ever get offered a contract for over $14.1 million a year, was David Ortiz, who just got to $15 mil a year as the second half of a 2-year deal for $28 mil total. (That’s not counting players hired to play other positions who end up at DH.) Kendrys Morales is no where near Ortiz, so how could any organization assume it a given that Morales would pass up a $14.1 year deal, or, even assuming that, expect that another team would forfeit a pick AND offer him a better deal?
Your assume that the two sides had talks before the QO date, that real numbers were exchanged and that if both those were true that Morales and his agent (Boras) showed all their cards… why would Morales and Boras let the Mariners know that any QO would be turned down, when the QO, itself, is one of the obstacles to Morales getting a FA offer?
The Mariners lucked out because Morales was a fool, but there is no upside because no one is going to guarantee a DH, like Morales, David Ortiz money. (In fact the Red Sox never have to come to terms with David Ortiz… all they have to do is offer him the QO, every year, because even Ortiz is not going to do better on the open market with a team forfeiting a draft pick.)
Presumably *one personally familiar with Kendrys Morales.
*
Morales and Boras did not have to show their cards, only enough for Seattle to know Morales would not settle for a one year deal. Again, I’m assuming nothing except that the Mariners knew more than you or I did. Remember, Morales had only one week to accept or reject the QO. He couldn’t have known how dire the situation could get.
It is indisputably the fact that the Mariners’ assumption Morales would not accept the offer was correct. You can say again and again that it made no sense for Morales not to accept the QO… but he didn’t accept it. Seattle took Morales for a fool, and they were absolutely right. Now, as it turns out, nobody offered Morales a contract, to so far Seattle doesn’t get a draft pick. But you never know, someone might have. We can’t replay this scenario a hundred times to see what the risk actually was… but Seattle’s bet has cost them nothing. It’s gained them nothing, but there’s still time for the Blue Jays to do something stupid.
And it was an indisputable fact that the Mariners were not 100% sure that Morales would pass up the QO at the moment they made the offer, which is really what matters when determining the wisdom of their action. And the only way the Mariners could have been 90+% sure that Morales would pass up teh QO is if they’d made a similar or greater offer to him and he’d already refused – which would have required an even greater amount of foolishness.
The estimated value of a 1st round pick is $3 million. The Mariners’ maximum benefit from offering a QO to Morales was a supplemental pick in the late 30s, overall. So the value of the maximum gain would be around $2 million, IF and only if a) Morales makes a foolish decision and b) another team makes a foolish decision and forfeits a draft pick to sign Morales.
The Mariners could have just kept the ancient Raul Ibanez for $3 mil and expected the same offensive output that they got from Morales. Even a 20% chance that Morales would accept the QO of $14.1 million outweighs the benefit of gaining a supplemental draft pick.
We’ll just have to agree that we have different standards for what constitutes foolish behavior.
Just read this story about K-Rod still having to remove cactus spines from his foot, after having stepped on one in his backyard more than a week ago. I can’t imagine how painful that must be.
Serious question: who was the last player to accept a qualifying offer? I can’t remember anyone doing it…which would support RickJay’s contention that the mariners knew exactly what they were up to.
But maybe somebody has. If so, who was it?
It’s only been in place since 2012, and no player in those two years has accepted.
Correct, last November was only the second go-around with the qualifying offer. In the first year, 9 players were offered a Q.O. and all declined.
Prior to 2012, a FA had to be offered binding contract arbitration (identical to the process that players/clubs go through in years 4,5 & 6 of a player’s tenure with his team). Arbitration guarantees that the one-year deal will generally be closer to the player’s market value. In 2011, a couple dozen FA’s were offered arbitration, and all but two declined it.
Under the old system, a Free Agent was classified as Type A or Type B, with the Type A FA’s getting the signing team’s 1st round pick, plus a supplemental pick (after round 1, before round 2) And Type B FA’s getting a second round pick, I believe.
One significant change between the old system and new system is the value of the pick – a team that loses it’s 1st round pick, also loses the “slot money” allocated to that pick, which limits their total spent on signing the entire draft class.
Aroldis Chapmanhit in the face with a line drive.
Damn. Hope he doesn’t get gun-shy and end his career, like Bryce Florie did.
Grady Sizemore is close to being named the Boston Red Sox center fielder. All he has to do is show he can handle playing in 3 consecutive ST games and live to talk about it. Sizemore has hit .380 so far, run the bases well and has made diving catches without injury.
If he can stay healthy and play 120+ games a year he’s got a lock at finishing second in the AL Comeback Player of the Year… Assuming Derek Jeter hits his weight.
Stayed up until 1am (PST) to watch the Dodgers opening game in Australia, only to see the words “rain delay” across the screen. Damn it, Australia, fix your weather.
As we get closer to Opening Day… and our fantasy baseball draft, which web site out there has the most up to date and accurate depth charts?
The Reds have been my least favorite team since I was a kid, but I wish him a speedy recovery.
I will probably never again in my lifetime be able to proclaim, as I can today "The Dodgers lead ALL OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL by 2 full games!