Major League Baseball 2014: Spring Training edition

The Game Room
61

The Tigers’ willingness to play Cabrera at third - I know they had Prince Fielder at first, but remember they singed Fielder fully knowing it meant moving Cabrera back across the diamond - combined with the $292 million contract suggests they believe Cabrera is Superman. I can’t help but think they may keep Miggy in the field a bit too long.

As to the Sizemore/Bradley decision, I have to admit I do not quite understand what Boston’s plans with Bradley are. He’s 24 and his on base percentage in AA and AAA is .374. He’s not getting any younger or any faster. I admire Grady Sizemore but surely Boston could have survived giving Bradley the job?

62

Exactly. Making me wonder, again, whether there’s something the organization knows and isn’t telling about Bradley.

In digging a little, and for whatever this sort of thing is worth, I see that both Baseball America and Keith Law dropped Bradley a couple of dozen places in their prospect rankings coming into this year: BA from #31 to #50, Law from #24 (midseason last year) to #51. Certainly the analysts don’t seem to be as bullish on Bradley as they were in the past.

Agreed about the Cabrera contract. Wow.

63

In my opinion, the signing of Sizemore never made sense. If they really thought Bradley was the future in center, they would’ve just lived with his limitations. At 25, it’s probably too late for him to meet expectations.

64

Oh, and meant to add that he had a .374 OBP in Pawtucket–a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league.

65

You’re prematurely aging Bradley… last I checked he was still 23 for another 3 weeks or so. He was drafted in 2011 and has the equivalent of 2 full seasons in the minors. He plays in an organization that has little in outfield depth, outside of him, and the big club’s roster of OFers are all over the age of 30.

So, I’d say JB Jr’s future with the Red Sox is reasonably secure.

66

Playing Cabrera at 3rd actually lowered his overall value; moving him back to 1st may mitigate some of the damage his defense does to his overall WAR, but he’s most valuable as a DH, even if the Tigers want to pretend otherwise. And now that they have another $250 mil invested in him, risking a fielding injury is just insane – it’s like letting your 2 year old drink juice out of your very best stemware.

67

Sorry I added 13 months to Bradley’s age. :D. I still contend that he needs to be in Boston for good once he promoted, to justify sticking with him this long.

68

Other than the fact that he hasn’t shown he can hit his way out of a wet paper bag, and isn’t a stealing threat either? At least not yet? Nothing to wonder about there.

The Sox need to win now, like every year, and they needed depth at the position in case Bradley isn’t gonna make it (which we won’t know for a couple of years anyway).

69

So he’ll be a 28 year old JUST NOW becoming a serviceable major leaguer? I say cut your loses and find a 20 year old who can be in the show in 2-3 years.

70

Well, “A couple of years” would put him in his age 26 year, not 28, just to be fair.

But yeah, at 24 and in AAA, Bradley is no longer really a prospect, he’s a fourth outfielder who got stuck in Pawtucket because he might at least get a little better but Mike Carp won’t.

[QUOTE=Bellhorn]
…the big club’s roster of OFers are all over the age of 30.
[/QUOTE]

Carp is 27, actually. This is technically his age 28 year, I believe, as he turns 28 on June 30.

71

So you’re assuming Bradley has zero improvement over the next 4+ years> That doesn’t even make a shred of sense? What do you think is the average age that a prospect lands a full-time position in MLB, and stays there?

Ellsbury was almost exactly Bradley’s age when he came to Boston at the end of 2007. Dustin Pedroia was 2 months younger than Bradley when he started the 2007 with the Sox. Same with Nomar Garciaparra in 1997. Kevin Youkilis was 2 years older than Bradley when he finally came up to the big club to stay in 2006.

All these Sox players were 1st round or supplemental draft picks who were drafted out of college. They weren’t polished players who needed 2-3 years in the minors to get up to mlb speed. Players like Bogaerts or Trout or Griffey or Harper are exceptions – they were amateur players who already played the game at a high level of skill at 18 or younger.

4 months, so far, is “stuck in Pawtucket?”

As I mentioned, Bradley has just over 1,000 plate appearances in his entire professional career. He’s a great fielder who’s shown excellent plate management in minor league ball, but needs more work against balls thrown on the inside of the plate.

72

IMO, once you’re 24-5 you’re a finished product, if he waits to 27/8 to reach his full potential, you get, at most 4 years before his skills erode. Sorry I want 8-10 years of elite play, but that could just be me.

73

Then you’re only dealing with the super-elite… the first ballot HOFers who were close to complete packages in their early 20s. Most starters and all stars don’t even begin to have breakout years until 26, 27, 28…David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, Curtis Granderson, Larry Walker, Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis… Power is usually the last thing to fully develop, which is why you target players like Jackie Bradley who already have show good command of the K-zone and then project power to increase in their late 20s. Sometimes it’s the other way around, where kids have power, but without plate discipline they swing out of the zone too much… and it takes a few years before they learn.

The reason Sox fans are excited about Xander Bogaerts is that he may be the most complete prospect, at 21, that the Sox have had in this century (and they still expect XB to develop power over the next few years). Funny how the Red Sox have won 3 World Championships without any of your kind of prospects (except, of course, for Xander’s 3 WS starts.)

74

With the 2nd highest payroll, we SHOULD have as many finished products on our roster. Guess I have higher expectations for our scouts than you.

75

I’d be surprised if he can stay healthy through June.

Oh look, Sports Illustrated’s expert pickers have made their expert picks for the 2014 season, so Washington or St. Louis are locks for World Series champion.

True, the experts were a little off for 2013…

76

My expectations for players:

Only 1 season at full-season “A” ball
Done with AA by age 22 season
In majors by age 25 season

77

And Bradley is in his age 24 season right now, on pace to hit the majors by the end of the year or next year. So what’s your complaint again?

78

I thought he was older. I’m also dubious he’s here to stay.

79

This doesn’t make sense.

A college player is usually drafted in June after his Junior age, at the average age of 21. Since he’s already played a full season of college ball, he’s not going to play a full season in the minors, and at best will see a few games of action in a short-season A league. If he’s on schedule, in the year he turns 22, he’ll be assigned to a high-A team, and assuming all goes well, the next year, in his year-23, he’ll start the season in AA.

So he’s already behind your schedule, and I assume, of little use to you.

What’s funny is that Jackie Bradley Jr is actually a fast-riser amongst prospects AHEAD of your schedule. Drafted in 2011 and played on a short-season team. 2012 in High-A, AND AA, 2013 - 1 month in majors, 4 months in AAA.

In any event, Bradley has a good shot at getting 300 plate appearances with the Red Sox this year. Victorino is back in Boston today, getting an MRI on a strained hamstring. He may be put on the DL during the first part of a cold, rainy April. Last I heard Bradley may be on his way to Baltimore, just in case.

If, last week, the Red Sox had gone with Bradley as the CF starter, Sizemore would have been released from his gtd major league contract, and probably been signed with the Cincinnati Reds by now. And there’d be no decent CF available to call up.

Actually the Red Sox scouts are rated near the very top of MLB. Remember, since the Red Sox are perennial contenders, they don’t get a chance at any of the top 10-15 draft picks every year. That group constitutes the bulk of the amateurs that are considered close to mlb-ready. The Sox and Yankees are left with the remainder, which are almost always “projects.” Last year, was the first time the Sox had a draft pick in the first 20 and drafted Trey Ball, a high-ceiling HS pitcher.

80

Sizemore’s health is the obvious concern, and stating that he won’t stay healthy is a natural reaction. But what are the probabilities of various health scenarios and what’s the risk/reward ratio? Do you think the Red Sox haven’t thought about it?

Sizemore almost came back last spring, but he’d begun work with a kinesiologist in the Greater Boston area that urged that he take one more year to build up his body and develop a plan of preventive and recovery maintenance. He signed with Boston this year, only after this physical therapist felt that the Sox were up to speed on the type of physical preparation his body needs.

In other words, this is not a case of a snap decision where one or both sides crosses their fingers and hopes for the best. The Red Sox could have just passed on the whole deal and signed 37 year old Carlos Beltran for 3 yrs/$45 mil, but that’s the Yankee way, of course.

I like what the Sox are doing. And the Sizemore experiment may fail in the first month of the regular season, but, at the very least, the Sox will have new data points as to dealing with players with an injury histories.

What’s you over/under on games Ellsbury plays in each season with the Yankees? In his 20s, with the Red Sox, he averaged 113 games. Now, he’s in his 30s and getting paid $21 mil a year until he’s 37. Do you think the Yankees calculated the risk/reward ratios before they wrote the check?