A “significant” amount of exploitable natural gas discovered off-shore of Israel.
Allow me the poor etiquette of not staking out an initial thought myself and of just asking the question: how will this play out politically do you think?
I don’t think it’s a particularly big deal politically, although it will certainly help the Israeli economy.
Russia has been holding Europe hostage for years over this. If Europe can tap into it then it’s a HUGE deal.
Well, I was able to find this analysis from back in June, before the Leviathan field was discovered even bigger, significantly so, that makes some important points.
To Europe, China, or India? Noting that natural gas is not as fungible as oil is. Yes, decreasing Russia’s, excuse my imagery, ball-grip on the EU would be a significant impact, but then the issue is if it goes through Turkey or Greece or gets piped inland and converted into LNG and then shipped. I’m guessing that conversion to LNG is a less efficient means of delivery but does allow for some degree of fungibility. If the EU imports a significant amount of natural gas from Israel, and can afford to stand up to Russia some as a result, do you think that perhaps some of the EU countries may be bit more prone to be less hostile to Israeli POVs? France has enough nuclear to not be so influenced, but Germany? Others?
Also ample energy allows for desal, which may make water management issues something less of a bone of contention in PA-Israel negotiations.
In domestic politics there are issues over how to tax it. And there is the question of how it impacts Israeli investments in renewable energy technologies, especially solar.
Finally any pipeline becomes a terror target and I am not sure how that plays out.
You are significantly overstating how big this discovery is. While 16 tcf of gas may sound like a lot, it’s not on a global scale. Russia, for example, has proven reserves of 1,680 tcf. The U.S. produces more than 16 tcf in a single year.
To put it in perspective, Noble Energy owns a 40% interest in the field. After the announcement today, their stock increased 2.57%, which equates to $382 million in market cap. Now certainly this discovery was already priced in to some extent, but it illustrates that this isn’t some sort of game changer for Noble Energy, let alone a country like Israel.
Russia controlling Europe through gas??? Jesus Christ, get a grip…
Controlling isn’t quite the right word. But, assuming you are thinking this is just some overblown Red Scare thingy, Russia certainly exerts considerable influence on many of the EU nations due to this.
-XT
Sorry, but keeping Fox News as background noise does seem to take its toll. Time to get out of your bunker for a breath of fresh air.
I don’t watch Fox News, and if anyone needs a reality check and an update on current events on this subject, it seems to be you. Stay thirsty my friend…
-XT
Sorry cant talk right now, the local Soviet Comissar has just requested my apartment as payment for my gas bills.
Ask him or her to requisition you a clue.
-XT
They have shut the flow of gas before. Wiki article with map. Europe depends on gas coming out of Russia.
And on oil from the Middle East, you’d have to be pretty stupid to think the Middle East controls Europe.
Even someone in grade school understands that the middle east greatly influences the price and flow of oil around the world. We experienced gas shortages in the 70’s and it could happen again. But unlike oil which is moved via container ships and can be sourced from different places, natural gas requires a pipeline to the source. As per the maps linked to above those all lead into Russia and they have cut the flow of that gas already. They did this during January which endangered people’s lives. It’s a big deal when the only source of heating fuel for millions of people is cut off.
Your knowledge of the situation is non-existent.
They did this for three days in January over a dispute with Ukraine in which Ukraine was actually guilty of leeching part of the gas. I’m afraid you guys are confusing the EU with what Russia did to Ukraine. When Russia really used gas cutt offs to exert an influence on Ukraine, so far Russia has never done that agaisnt Europe. Living in Europe, I think I might have noticed if Russia was constantly threatening Europe with cutting off gas if we didnt follow its whims…
I’d send you a postcard from reality, but I dont know what are the postal fees for where you live.
non-existent as in clueless.
Although people may be exaggerating the threat, the EU takes diversifying the source of their natural gas seriously enough: The Nabucco Pipeline.
Also, I assume in January you did not live in any of these countries:
The result of cutting off supplies to Ukraine and the EU because of a dispute between two countries that are not part of the EU is serious enough that it should not be allowed to become a habit.
Anyway, natural gas has been around $10-$20 per 1000 cubic feet lately here in the US. 16tcf is 16,000,000,000 thousands of cubic feet. So, $160 to $320 billion worth of resource? And the price of gas can only go up? Looks like a win for Israel whether it can pry the EU completely out of Russia’s iron bear-hug or not.
Oh, nobody denies that Russia is a big gas provider for Europe (though if you look at the numbers you’d realize that it is far from being a monopoly). And, yes, I was in one of those countries at the time, and it was a pretty rough winter. But though it was at the beginning portrayed in the media as a neo Tsar Putin like move designed to show how strong Russia is to meek Europe, it rapidly became confirmed that Ukraine was hogging some gas. So, there wasnt really a strategy from Putin to scare Europe about its natural ressources dependency. More a big stick policy from Putin that underlined to anyone Europe better make some efforts to diversify its sources even more.
You’ll admit that this is quite different from the depiction of Europe being held by the balls by Russia that seems to be a Conservative trope in the US (I guess anything that characterizes Russia as evil and imperialistic, and Europeans as wimpy faggots is your average Conservative radio show in the US).
Back to the OP: I notice “a lot” of posters are saying how this is good for Europe and presumably for Israel-Europe relations. I’m not certain having one more element that reinforces Israel’s non-Middle Eastern positioning is any good for Israel. As long as it remains a European enclave in Arab territory, none of its problems will be solved.
Which was why I, you know, said that ‘controlling’ was the wrong word. But you had a bur up your ass about Fox News for some reason or another. No one doubts that the ME and it’s politics influence Europe (and the US) because they sit on a strategic resource. Which is exactly the same thing that Russia does. It has nothing to do with being communist (which they aren’t anymore…try to keep up with current events in the future, ehe?), and everything to do with the simple fact that they control something that Europe needs.
Anyway, getting back to the OP, it doesn’t seem like this is a large enough resource to be a game changer, as LonghornDave pointed out earlier. It will enrich Israel, but I don’t see it as anything really major…on a scale of, say, the North Slope reserves (just my WAG).
-XT