Make Up of Congress After 2008 election

Obviously all the press is devoted to the presidental campaign but in reality any president is limited to his ability to get Congress to go along with his ideas

Does anyone know of a website or such that may give a projected poll of what the House and Senate may look like after the Nov 2008 elections.

Holding a small majority won’t give the Democrats the huge boost they’ll need if they expect rapid change should Obama win

Thanks

Based on recent polls, electoral-vote.com is projecting:

Senate:

58 Dem
41 Rep
1 tie

House:

250 Dem
184 Rep
1 tie

Other sites may differ somewhat, but most are predicting a pretty large Democratic majority in both houses.

FiveThirtyEight has a daily projection. It’s not too far off from electoral-vote.

CNN.com has Senate and House projections that are roughly similar to those. The big question seems to be whether the Dems can get a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate; it’s even become an issue in political advertising in N.C., where Elizabeth Dole finds herself in an unexpectedly tough reelection fight.

Pollster.com has one as well. Pick House or Senate off the “map chooser” menu.

Makeup of Congress is like putting lipstick on a pig.

I don’t believe 538 covers the House, just the presidential and Senate races. Their Senate projections are usually updated weekly on Monday, although Silver did an early update today.

–Cliffy

Helpful response.

Per Cliffy, I don’t think they cover the House. Maybe 435 races is too much statistical data even for those geeks to manage. :wink:

He’s mentioned in the FAQ somewhere that senate races tend to move more quickly as election day approaches, so he might be doing them more often now as a matter of course.

And I don’t think that 435 races is to much data for them to process (it’d just be a few more minutes of computer time), but it’s probably too much to present cleanly. They do comment on some of the interesting House races in their Road to 270 series, so they’ve clearly got at least some data on them.

Thanks I appreciate it

Yes, that’s right. To be clear, they don’t cover House races systematically.

–Cliffy

Nate has said that after the election he is going to focus on the house. I would expect to see numbers for the races in 2010.

This site: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ gives daily updates of the presidential race in each state and has a link to a senatorial map. It also has a link that gives detailed analyses of dozens of House races that might change party. As far as I can tell, they are attempting to be non-partisan.

See post #2.

CNN.com on Congressional Republican woes: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/24/gop-increasingly-nervous/