Make Your Final Iowa Caucus Predictions Here!

All of the major networks have now called this a victory for Lamar Mundane.

Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC just called the Clinton post-caucus party “manufactured”, and it does look pretty funereal.

Question: If she drops out, who gets her war chest?

Robin

She’s not quitting until after February. She has enough money to stay in until then and I don’t think she’s going to call it a day just yet. Unless she gets slammed in NH, MI and SC, she’s going to keep going until Super Tuesday.

Well, she’s still a US Senator so she may be able to roll it into her Senatorial campaign account.

Of course, time was she’d have just been able to keep it.

For one thing, she won’t drop out until after Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th, no matter what her showing in the intervening primaries. She has enough money to stick it out, and she should. Secondly, she is still in politics, and she can use any money she raised in future campaigns. She doesn’t have to give it to anybody.

Just speculating here, but Obama/Huckabee would have to be the most unusual names in a U.S. Presidential race since… ever? I can’t think of who would be the competition. Buchanan-Fremont-Fillmore?

Wow. Congrats to Obama. But don’t count Hillary out. Not yet. It’s nice to her smacked down by my guy, though. Run, Barack, run!

True enough, John. It’s a long way until Super Tuesday. But Obama’s liable to suddenly get a bunch of money and free air time. Might have to write something myself on it.

Obama hasn’t been at a loss for money, I don’t think - but he’s going to get a big boost when people start thinking anybody-but-Hillary (and Obama in particular) has a shot to win at all.

I suppose “who gets her war chest” wasn’t worded quite right. But I didn’t know what would happen to it. I’m sure she’ll stick it out at least until Super Tuesday. It would be a huge mistake not to.

But I’ve got a headache and I’m not thinking clearly ever since my formerly-conservative husband asked about registering as a Democrat when he came out as an Obama supporter. Now if I could just get him weaned off the Ayn Rand… :wink:

Robin

Oh, stop. Atlas Shrugged just had it’s 50th or something. Throw him a bone here and move on.

I wonder if this will be a bit of a wake up call for those who really like Hillary, but worry her negatives are so high she would likely be beaten by several of the republicans in the general election?

Her strength was supposed to be her abilty to put a campaign together. Without that, you are left with candidate that many people just won’t vote for no matter what.

I think of all the candidates, she was supposed to be the one who would have the experience to pull out a win in situation like Iowa, where having money and a strong, well- run campaign would make a difference.

Definately can’t count her out yet, but this has to be a real blow to them.

That’s the effect of watching a paradigm shifting without a clutch… :smiley:

As questions have been asked about historic caucus result, there now follows a list of how the most recent presidents did in the caucus the time they were first nominated, including notation of winners and vote totals in cases where the president-to-be was not the winner:

Bush (2000)- 41.0% (winner)
Clinton (1992)- 2.8% (see above)
GHW Bush (1988)- 18.5% (Dole, 37.4%)
Reagan (1980)- 29.6% (GHW Bush, 31.6%)
Carter (1976)- 27.6% (Uncommitted, 37.2%)

Might end up stripping your ideological gears, there.

Yep, only in a Democratic presidential caucus would “Uncommitted” win…

What surprises me the most is that Grampa Fred actually pulled out a 3rd place showing. Has someone woken him up from his nap to let him know yet?

Okay, it’s way too easy to read more than what’s there into this, but what the heck. Let’s talk about this means.

Obama’s win is important not only in that he gets called the victor in the press and the bump in popularity and donations that will surely get him (and the associated tarnishing of Clinton’s “inevitable” image), is that we’ve seen just how good a politician Obama (the Obama camp, I should say) really is. If Obama can outmaneuver the mighty Clinton machine in the Byzantine world of the Iowa Democratic, what can he do in the more straightforward primary elections?

Edwards is just where he was when he started, and where he was in 2004. I think he’ll start sinking fast after NH and SC.

Clinton has taken a blow (something her husband knows a lot about, :rimshot), but she’s not out by any means. It may be that without the “second choice” votes from Dodd and Biden etc. supporters, Clinton may do better in NH and beyond, and carry that momentum after the second tier actually drops out.

On the Republican side, Huckabee’s victory is less important to him than Romney’s defeat is to his campaign. A major blow to Romney, much bigger than Clinton’s loss.

This could be the start of Huckabee’s ascension, but I want to see how he does when Giuliani actually tries to win before I say anything concrete about him.

McCain needs to kick ass in New Hampshire is he’s actually going to go anywhere. I think Thompson, despite finishing ahead of McCain is done. He’s completely fizzled as a candidate.

I didn’t dare hope, but great result!

Luckily, I predicted it elsewhere, if not in this thread. The key is to make bunches of predictions. one of 'em is bound to be right! :cool:

I heard Howard Dean say that the Democratic turnout was much bigger than the Republican’s. If so, that argues well for the Democratic candidate’s chances in Iowa in November.