Making Democracy Work in Iraq

Based on my earlier thread Can Democracy Work in Iraq

Were President Bush to come over and knock on my door and say, “Mr. Garcia, you’re in charge of making democracy work in Iraq,” after thinking it over and hearing much argument (see above thread), would be “segment Iraq.” Break it down as much as possible. Decentralize the government, giving as much autonomy to local/tribal alignments as possible (stopping short of allowing them to hold militias) - basically, make them similar to the United States c. 1780.

Local populations elect local representatives, who elect an upper legislature, who is the prime force, throw in a prime minister, but leave most of the legislation at a more local “state” level.

Of course, it is always hard to draw lines in the sand and say what stops where - they tend to blend together instead of being uniform - but after some mickey-mousing, I think it could be made to work, similar to Eastern Europe (also not properly divided, still containing more than a few border disputes, but those would be lessened by the lack of militia and oversight of a national army).

This allows the current Iraqi subdivisions to each have a slice of the pie - run their own region mostly how they want to with their own local leaders. Minimize what would be controversial. The idea would be that over time, as happened in the United States, the borders would stop looking so solid and they would gell as a uniform country.

This also leads to, initially, a large number of political parties with various motivations, but over time most would die out or merge.

This seems to me to be the cleanest way and best bet to make democracy work - division, not unification. A strong, centralized government is going to be imposing a lot of will on people. It is more likely to crack under the pressure and turn into a coup.

I posted this many moons ago. There will end up being three Iraqs.

Sunni
Shiite
Kurd.

Never shall they mingle.

They hate each other.

and none will be democratic.

Not the democracy bushco wants anyway.

If one wants to segment Iraq in such a fashion, what exactly do you propose be done with the regions where two or more groups live in the same place?

I know this one. We stand around wringing our hands, shedding crocodile tears while one side ‘encourages’ all the others to pack their belongings and leg it. Yes, I’m a cynic, but it just keeps paying off. :frowning:

Dividing in a much more structured and balanced way might seem as the best solution…

The problem is nationalism… your going to probably have Yugoslavia like attempts at reunification. Also if one of the “parts” becomes stronger ? Or one of them becomes overly militaristic ? You would have a scenario of dominance that might be concluded with invasions.

If one of them failed badly they might be tempted to distract their population with war… and invade too. Different neighbors would play one “Part” against the other in the fight for influence… and Iran most certainly would gain much from such a partition… something the US does not desire.

Prosperity and division of powers is the key to Iraqi democracy. They must beleive in sharing some of it. The Sunni generation now still wants their old dominance… that is complicated. The Shia are too divided. Kurds on the other hand would be viable separated from Iraq… but that would hurt US chances of manipulating Iraqi political scenario.

  1. Seeing as Baghdad is very mixed, how would it be divided other than through civil war? I’m assuming your intent is to minimize loss of life here.

  2. If the Kurds became self-governing and somewhat autonomous, what would keep Turkey from annexing them due to concerns over their own agitated Kurdish population?

This is not a new idea, drawing borders all over the Middle East and assuming people will live by them. More likely it is a recipe for civil war.