Since we have thrown in our lot with the anti-Saddam Shia muslims in the south, and with the Kurdsin the north, what will post-war Iraq be?
I think after all of the terror that Saddam has inflicted on these groups, it is highly unlikely that the country will remain united. Yest, I think the USA and GB fears the breakup of Iraq-that would give hope to the Kurds in Turkey, for example.
Are we unleashing another era of instability in the ME? Will we have to occupy Iraq for many years?
This war is all of a sudden looking like a mistake!
The U.S. Administration has already made clear that Iraq’s borders will not be re-defined and that the country will not be split (mainly to appease Turkey, which will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state).
If we stick to that plan, I have no idea how a democracy will work in Iraq.
The U.S. Administration has already made clear that Iraq’s borders will not be re-defined and that the country will not be split (mainly to appease Turkey, which will not tolerate an independent Kurdish state).
If we stick to that plan, I have no idea how a democracy will work in Iraq. Neither does the State Department:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/03/14/1047583702494.html
To paraphrase what someone said in another context: “Now that they don’t have Saddam to hate, they can go back to hating each other.” Think Yugoslavia.
Perhaps they could try for a confederation along the lines of the EU, but I’m skeptical even that’ll work (plus Turkey will probably throw a fit anyway). But a strong, national government? I don’t see it surviving once our troops leave.
No three state solution if we can help it. In the best of all worlds, the 3 regions will have a goodly amount of autonomy. Just enough to keep everyone satisfied, but not enough to encourage disintegration. That should be pretty simple, right…?