The immunity ruling, horrible as it is, did give Judge Merchan good and plausible reasons to delay. I agree that Merchan will be relieved to not have to sentence mere weeks before the election, but it won’t be his total reason for the continuance. As you said, it enables plausible deniability. And I would add, reasonable deniability.
As much as I’d love the idea of Trump being sentenced to jail or even prison (less likely) in September, the idea of Merchan delaying a couple months or more until after the election does make sense.
That’s what I think, too.
But if Trump loses the election, and sentencing is scheduled in a few weeks or so down the road, with trials for other indictments coming down shortly thereafter, the ketchup will be flying and I will be doing the Happy Dance! 
I will certainly join you in that!
And I don’t expect a lengthy delay past the election. Sentencing could easily occur between November 5, 2024, and January 20, 2025.
I hope not and I dont think so- trump has demanded that the judge do so, and Merchan is not a trump fan. The date is set- Sept 18.
Why act like trump isnt just another criminal? Does trump get special privileges just because he is a candidate? How about RFK jr? How about Oliver? or Stein? How about if someone just announced they are a candidate?
Because he’s not. He has a special SCOTUS ruling crafted just for him that gums up the works for many of his criminal cases. Judge Merchan cannot ignore this problem.
Plus we have no idea how having him sentenced would impact the vote on Election Day. One would expect it to hurt his chances but with this crazy electorate who knows.
It would be better overall to have it happen after the election.
Although technically, Biden could also rake advantage of those SCOTUS rulings. He could also have a political rival executed by Seal Team 6 if he wanted and call it “official business.”
That’s a whole 'nother discussion for a different thread.
The issue is more complicated than your statement makes it sound.
Perhaps, but it’s a side benefit that arose alongside the recent trial of Trump and the hush money payment (falsifying records). If it’s acceptable for one president to kill someone with impunity, then it’s acceptable for ANY president. Biden is not the kind of guy to resort to such measures, but Trump certainly is.
But that’s not what the immunity ruling really says. To oversimplify, the SCOTUS granted the power to themselves to determine what is an official act and what is not. In practice, what the ruling means is that the SCOTUS can excuse any act of Trump’s as “official” – but would likely issue a different ruling for Biden’s actions. That’s what makes it diabolical.
Again, if you wish to discuss the particulars of the ruling further, please take this up in a thread dedicated to discussing it, not this one. Like here:
Fair enough. Thanks for the clarification.
I don’t get this. The SCOTUS ruling applies to “official acts” a president undertakes as president. This case is regarding acts that occurred while he was a candidate for the office, not when he was in office. The SCOTUS ruling is immaterial.
My best understanding:
Yes and no. Trump is likely going to try and claim that he was performing an “official act” when he wrote several (two?) of the repayment checks while sitting in the Oval Office.
Naturally, that’s a preposterous notion to anyone with an objective perspective about what he did. But that’s what he’s hanging his hat on, and some legal folks think it will be enough for Judge Merchan to have to decide if the evidence of those checks were improperly placed into evidence before the jury.
Trump will try for a full retrial, but Merchan is more likely to do either of two things. He could dismiss the counts pertaining to those particular repayment checks. Or he could make a finding that Trump is full of shit and just because he sat in the Oval Office to write repayment checks doesn’t make the writing of them an official act. Trump would appeal this ruling to… guess where?
Agreed. Which is why I think the judge would be inclined to postpone until after the election. Better to be the null set than trigger some sort of reaction.
Ah. Thanks.
IMHO a judge should take zero consideration of what sort of reaction might be provoked, to the direction they prefer or not, in their decision. Assume it helps Trump. Sentence on schedule anyway. His being a candidate is immaterial to his being a felon due to be sentenced.
I get that it might get appealed to SCOTUS based on claiming two of the checks were written while he was president. And that SCOTUS could even decide to hear the appeal. The judge is still obligated to handle the felon as a felon.
If he delays - til when? After the election but before certification/inauguration? Or, if we’ve waited that long, why not until Feb? And is the dynamic different whether Chump or Harris wins?
Yeah, judges quite often delay matters (IMO often overmuch.) But in this case, I’m not sure how well he can calculate the benefit of how much delay. Just sentence him as scheduled, and let things develop as they may.
I would usually agree, but I just think that this case is so outsized in its impact that it just might warrant an exception.
(Or, at the least, it’s why I predict the delay. Manchin would surely have an easier time with sentencing if it came after Trump was decisively defeated, so why not see if that happens).
It’s a fair point. Perhaps delay just creates its own problems, and all of a sudden this sentencing hearing becomes one more aspect of the political maelstrom that is to come.
Trump deserves prison, but this is just so unprecedented that I struggle to imagine him getting his sanction before the election.
But if he wins, can any state sanction be imposed on a sitting Pres? I’d favor house arrest before the election. Force Chump to spend his efforts regarding that. See if the electorate is stupid enough to vote for him, and how aggresssively the Supremes will jump thru hoops to save his campaign.
Yes. Just as surely as Ulysses Grant once got a speeding ticket, President-elect* Donald Trump is still subject to the laws of New York.
But that’s letting him off easy. Michael Cohen did actual prison time for his role in this scheme, which was done at the direction, and for the benefit, of this defendant.
And this house arrest is still accounting for his personal situation as a candidate, insofar as the sanction impacts his ability to campaign.
Merchan is known to be tough on white collar felons. This one should go to Rikers.
…after the election…
Merchan may also be thinking of another practical issue: the safety of himself, his family, and his staff.
I’ll eat crow if I’m wrong, but I still predict a continuance.
*