I agree with you about actually losing a lot of elections.
They don’t have to ignore. If 538 says they have, say, a 20 percent chance, they will know they are in trouble. But they also will know that victory is still possible, and rationally think that dumping Trump would be digging a bigger hole.
Well, if we are talking about the Stormy Daniels case:
We already know that having a jury rule that Trump penetrated a woman’s vagina with an object or member is not a disaster. So why should losing a criminal case much less lurid create a Trump polling disaster?
Swing/uncertain voters think all politicians are crooked, so a verdict under appeal is not going to cause a Trump polling disaster. And remember that Trump historically beats his polls by a couple points, and historically has an electoral college advantage of 3 or 4 points. So this case, which media experts seem to think is the least important, will not require any kool-air drinking, even if Trump is behind.
The only exception I can see is actual incarceration prior to election day, or, maybe, conceivably, a firm prison report date for prior to inauguration date. But really, Trump world would be counting on the Supreme Court to save him if he has, say, a December report date. So I think the polling disaster scenario requires current incarceration.
I’ve seen estimates that the trial will take a couple months.
But does anyone have a jury selection estimate? What is the New York State record, as I’m sure Trump’s lawyers will try to break it?
Assuming conviction, I wonder it the longest delay factor will be New York pre-sentencing investigation. How long can that take? Have obnoxious defendants any tool they can use to delay that?