Manhattan Prosecutors file criminal charges for Trump re Stormy Daniels case - ongoing discussion here (Guilty on all 34 counts, May 30, 2024)

I can’t put my finger on it, but something about the latest screed has me thinking it’s an attempt to goad Judge Merchan into some action that would (in Trump’s addled mind) justify a demand for his recusal. In any case, I agree that whether or not it was written by an attorney, it wasn’t written by Trump. And I strongly doubt it’ll work.

The “I’ve said so many bad things about the judge that he’ll have to recuse himself” is a bold strategy. Let’s see if it pays off for him.

I agree with this. It’s what tried to do in the NY AG/Fraud case. Generally, it’s unwise to piss off a Judge, even if it’s legal. It might not even be for recusal, but a later semi-possible basis to appeal, and certainly a basis to immediately fundraise on, and a basis to rile up his base for god knows what. You just need to goad the Judge into giving you one “anti-Trump” quote to prove this is all a witch hunt (in their minds, not in reality).

It’s the strategy of a desperate man.

Be reminded that Donald attacked the presiding judge in the Trump University case, one Gonzalo Curiel, for his Mexican heritage, on the grounds that he (Trump) couldn’t get a fair trial after all the negative things he (again Trump) had been saying about Hispanics in the US.

Someone remind me what the expression is for that.

Oh, most certainly. This kind of bullshit is all he has at this point. I think he wrote a screed, and then his lawyer went over it and toned it down so it was just, just not quite but almost over the line.

Punching yourself in the balls?

Chutzpah! What do I win?

Murdering your parents and then demanding mercy from the judge because you’re an orphan?

There’s the PR nightmare where the Democrats win a lot of elections in November. If that disaster starts looming, the Republicans will pretend to have moral principles and will denounce Trump.

That’s what Trump should be worried about; when does the Republican establishment (as opposed to the MAGA crowd) decide they get more mileage out of denouncing Trump than they do out of supporting Trump? Sure, denouncing Trump will cost them in the 2024 elections but at some point the Republicans are going to decide the 2024 elections are a lost cause and start thinking about what they need to do to win the elections in 2026, 2028, and beyond.

Keep me posted.

A more modern version:

Actually losing a lot of elections in November would probably do it, but I think the current leadership have all drunk the Kool-Aid to the extent that they’ll ignore any looming disaster by telling themselves that the liberal media have rigged the polls.

Personally, I think the leadership of the Republican party understands the problem it has on its hands. They’ve already seen the results of the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections and they don’t allow themselves the same kind of ego-saving delusions Trump does.

I agree with you about actually losing a lot of elections.

They don’t have to ignore. If 538 says they have, say, a 20 percent chance, they will know they are in trouble. But they also will know that victory is still possible, and rationally think that dumping Trump would be digging a bigger hole.

Well, if we are talking about the Stormy Daniels case:

We already know that having a jury rule that Trump penetrated a woman’s vagina with an object or member is not a disaster. So why should losing a criminal case much less lurid create a Trump polling disaster?

Swing/uncertain voters think all politicians are crooked, so a verdict under appeal is not going to cause a Trump polling disaster. And remember that Trump historically beats his polls by a couple points, and historically has an electoral college advantage of 3 or 4 points. So this case, which media experts seem to think is the least important, will not require any kool-air drinking, even if Trump is behind.

The only exception I can see is actual incarceration prior to election day, or, maybe, conceivably, a firm prison report date for prior to inauguration date. But really, Trump world would be counting on the Supreme Court to save him if he has, say, a December report date. So I think the polling disaster scenario requires current incarceration.

I’ve seen estimates that the trial will take a couple months.

But does anyone have a jury selection estimate? What is the New York State record, as I’m sure Trump’s lawyers will try to break it?

Assuming conviction, I wonder it the longest delay factor will be New York pre-sentencing investigation. How long can that take? Have obnoxious defendants any tool they can use to delay that?

Looks like Trump immediately violated his gag order.

Are judges allowed* to look at similar conduct in previous cases, or will Merchan have to start with wrist slaps and let Trump dance his way back to the edge?

*wrong word, probably. I know he can do whatever he thinks is appropriate. I guess I mean in the sense that Engoron was super careful not to look biased.

I wish I could see a copy of the order. If it said not to comment on the judge or his family, and he directly violated it the next day, the judge could revoke his bond and let him sit in jail pending trial.

I believe it specified family members of court officials but did not prohibit him from attacking the judge himself - similar to Engoron’s order.

Maybe not, actually. From AP:

The gag order bars Trump from either making or directing other people to make public statements on his behalf about potential witnesses and jurors in the hush-money trial. It also prohibits any statements meant to interfere with or harass the court’s staff, prosecution team or their families.

It does not bar comments about Merchan, whom Trump has referred to after his arraignment last year as “a Trump-hating judge” with a family full of “Trump haters,” or Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, an elected Democrat. But it puts Trump on notice that attacks on key figures in the case, like his former lawyer-turned-nemesis Michael Cohen or porn star Stormy Daniels, won’t be tolerated.

Is the judge considered “court staff?”

I see the link includes a copy of the order. It does
Indeed only reference “court staff” and not the judge himself. It also references the DA’s staff (but not the DA), witnesses and jurors.

Not to me.

According to the New York Times article regarding Trump’s vile attack on the judge’s daughter:

the judge and his family are not included in the gag order

In my opinion, Trump is pretty clever at skating around gag orders, as here.