No argument in my mind that Kasich is far and away more qualified. Rubio, per his own campaign and stock lines, is the only one was “foreign policy experience”. I personally wouldn’t consider Rubio at all qualified in that front, but I suppose he has at least nominally more than Cruz does.
Obama was also lacking in that aspect (despite also serving on committees in his single term) which was part of his reason for selecting Biden who no one could argue was inexperienced in that arena.
If you REALLY want to beat Hillary, your best bets are:
Hillary gets indicted and this throws the Democratic party into a tailspin as Bernie’s supporters assume he should get the nomination and Hillary (or maybe Bill iof Hillary has gotten too toxic) throws her support behind someone like Biden, Kerry or any one of the dozens of other more viable candidates that didn’t run because Hillary was sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
Everyone except Cruz and Trump drop out of the race. Cruz can beat trump one on one. Cruz can beat Hillary one on one but its almost too late for that now.
In all likelihood, Hillary beats Trump in the general and goes on to govern like Mitt Romney on everything except abortion.
I don’t see how Rubio helps any conceivable Republican ticket. Whatever meager virtues he may have are better found in someone else that hasn’t been damaged by being part of the campaign road show to date.
He’s a Hispanic from a crucial swing state.
The state that he is likely to lose in next week’s primary. He’s also the guy directly responsible for digressing the last debate into a dick-measuring contest. No wonder Obama’s popularity is soaring and Hillary’s numbers are looking good!
I’m not sure - I think he was about 10 points back in the latest poll.
But in any event, there’s no guarantee that people win their home states. But in an election in which the state is already a close race - as FL tends to be in the general elections - having a home state guy on the ticket is worth a few points and can swing the results.
No argument from me there. Rubio’s descent into the gutter was a mistake, IMO. It hurt Trump but also hurt Rubio, and only helped Cruz.
The only poll I see with a Rubio lead is from January 2013.
I must have seen the Monmouth one. But I agree combined with the other recent one it doesn’t look as good.
(Not sure what your reference to a Rubio lead is about.)
Where he is almost certain to lose to Trump in the primary.
It’s often been noted that, if Gore had carried Tennessee in 2000 – after it went for the Clinton/Gore ticket in '96 and '92 – all the arguments over Florida’s hanging chads and butterfly ballots and just how much of a difference Ralph Nader made and so on would’ve been trivia, because President Gore would’ve won regardless; it’d be mildly interesting to see exactly how many electoral votes he won by, but, eh, who’d care?
(Wait, a full recount? Yeah, okay, I guess – but why bother? Tennessee called it!)
I’m channeling my wife here (Peruvian immigrant, lots of experience with Mexicans in the immigration system) rather than citing hard data but, according to her, “Cuban” doesn’t get you a lot of traction as a Hispanic. Many Hispanics regard Cubans as elitist and snooty (brain drain out of Cuba to Miami) and the whole “special refugee status” aspect to Cuban immigrants is a huge turn-off when you’re being told that your family is akin to rapist murderers for crossing the border and seeking a better life. Again, according to her, few Hispanics want to listen to a Cuban tell them how they should have immigrated while Cubans get to set one toe on US soil and get special treatment. Much like having a trust fund kid lecture you on how not to be poor.
Edit: That said, of course it could be of more value in FL itself with its Cuban population. But, again, if we’re talking Cruz-Rubio you already had the “Hispanic/Cuban” thing covered.
All true. But it should be noted that a lot of African-Americans were not all that enthused about Obama originally either, he being the son of a white mother and also not the descendent of slaves. But they came around in a very big way.
As the old Arab saying goes, “me and my brother against my cousin; me, my brother, and my cousin against the outsider”.
So I think it gets him a few votes, if only out of some sense of shared heritage/pride, and the knowledge that he’s probably not an anti-Hispanic bigot.
I thought the antecedent to the pronoun “he” in your post was Rubio. My mistake.
I even screwed up my mea culpa. I thought you were implying that Rubio had a lead. You were not. I was wrong. Sorry about that.
He’s a Cuban from a crucial swing state. Other than with Puerto Ricans (minus those who consider themselves Newyoricans) and other Cubans, his Hispanic ancestry Doesn’t help him.
Obama wasn’t pushing a comparable policy that affected African-Americans anything like Rubio has swung around on Hispanic immigration.
I’m not buying much of your premise.
Cruz really needs to win a big state that’s not Texas. . . like if he could win Michigan or Mississippi then he might have a chance. If Cruz has to win something besides Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Maine, Iowa, to prove he has a broad national appeal.
If Trump wins Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, he’ll win the nomination ultimately. I don’t think he has to win Ohio, really. Cruz has to win something big in the next two weeks to have a shot. Same for Rubio and Kasich. I don’t think winning your own state is enough to earn the nomination, even if it denies Trump the number to win on the first ballet. Trump will win the nomination at the convention unless things change soon.
Hah! Cruz did a pretty good job of hurting himself. The entire fiasco mostly helped to highlight the relative sanity of the Democratic candidates!
My wife is Hispanic as well, but not Cuban, and a naturalized American citizen, and agrees with you as does her Latino family and friends. They find the whole wet foot-dry foot policy to be extremely unfair and discriminatory, and would never vote for a Cubano, which is not a difficult feat as Cuban politicians tend to be Republican.
He’ll have to get down on his knees for it.