The title sums it. In short, where does the Rubio “stuff” go? Have some trouble with Rubio’s delegates / support (money?) going to Trump after it’s all settled. Kasich? IMO Cruz, with his chances going forward, seems the better bet but establishment money also? Ain’t a whole hell of a lot happening in the primaries after tonight, a spot here and there, so any big picture opinions?
I think Rubio’s folks go to Cruz more than anyone else. He may want them to go to Kasich, but I think Rubio is closer to Cruz than the Kasich. I assume most will not go to Trump, but who knows?
I think it will be somewhat divided. Unless Kasich or Cruz were to drop out as well, the anti-Trump vote will still be split. My prediction at this point is that Trump will reach the 1237 delegates, but it will be close. Whether that ends up shattering the Republican Party or not depends on what happens in November.
And the influence on the convention? Actually, it’s really the point of the OP If this blocks Trump on the first vote no way he wins the nomination IMO.
I’m thinking that most of his support will actually go to Kasich, at least in places like California. But yeah, some of Rubio’s supporters will go to Cruz. Hopefully none to Trump. If Rubio drops out and Trump gains another 5% or so because of it my head is going to explode.
And let me add, Trump’s negatives are some of the worse ever recorded in a presidential race. I think that’s worth something come contested / brokered convention time.
An aside here, but I thought Cruz’ speech was classy in treating Rubio. Of course, there was political motivation in it; there is no reason to alienate people who might go over to the Donald. But I liked that.
Still futilely grasping at that Kasich straw? The only way that that’d happen is some crazy convention trickery. That would result in a nasty nasty schism. All so someone who can’t even come in 3rd in the party primary and can only win his own state to be offered up as a sacrificial lamb to Mrs. Clinton? What would be the point?
So, yes, I suspect there will be absolutely no celebratory nominating process this year for the Grand Old Party. It’s going to be nuclear. Fat Man colliding with Little Boy. And once a gutted corpse is propped up as the nominee, there’ll be no red, white and blue balloons dropped in Cleveland, only black and turd-brown ones, probably filled with Agent Orange.
But then across town-- possibly in front of a vending machine at the Econolodge on Griswold Road-- another doughy, pasty corpse will emerge with ropes tied to its arms and legs allowing it to wave to the cameras, dark sunglasses covering its hollow eye sockets. The smoke will part as the corpse’s face comes into view on television screens across the country…but its identity will be obscured by the Sharpie that has vandalized its swollen face with a Hitler mustache and “BALLS” across the forehead. Slowly the camera pans down the corpse’s tattered clothing and we see a faded and bloodied t-shirt flapping in the wind, the word “JEB!” now clearly visible. Two former Republican Party operatives, smiling broadly into the camera, gently tug the ropes to make their Great White Hope dance awkwardly to the Kid Rock song blasting out of the boom box behind them.
Have you also gone back to Fear & Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72? Hunter S Thompson’s talents would have been useful to describing Today’s Republicans. Since he’s gone, we must continue the tradition…
The party might be better served by having Trump lose badly to Clinton, rather than Kasich perhaps a bit less badly. It might help expose and delegitimize the nativism that now rules them, while a loss by another Sane would only result in 2020 looking even more trainwreckish for them than 2016.
If this blocks Trump on the first vote no way he wins the nomination IMO.