“Flooding” in these areas is a common occurrence, but typically it just means low lying areas will be flooded. It commonly happens with heavy rain events. And it typically happens relatively slowly. It doesn’t indicate that people should evacuate. It means you should be aware that low water crossings may be underwater and you shouldn’t drive through them. This event was almost like a dam bursting. If the authorities knew that a huge wall of water was going to engulf communities in 45 minutes, then the warning should have been clear on that. Basically, the warning should have been “The dam is about to burst. Get everyone out.” rather than “Heavy rain is expected and there’s potential for flooding.”. Saying there’s “potential flooding” is what happens in pretty much every heavy rain storm in that area. If the community evacuated every time there was a potential for flooding, they’d be evacuating 1-2 times per month. The people sending out the warnings were unaware of how serious this was going to be. The question should be more along the lines of whether the warning correctly indicated the level of risk rather than whether the community incorrectly inferred that the risk was low.
I suspect money is a factor, but probably not the only one.
The article I linked to is updated and removed some of the Judge Kelly’s comments.
We have floods all the time this river valley is the most dangerous in the US and we deal with floods on a regular basis when it rains we get water. but rest assured we had no idea this flood was coming.
Well now they fucking know.
Exactly. Well, I’m not in the area, but Albuquerque gets flash flood warnings several times a year. Mostly it means get away from the arroyos and diversion system (I’ve seen very full arroyos but never one get topped), expect minor street flooding, pay attention near the river and acequias, and watch out for low water crossings. There’s an underpass in Tucson that I remember had a sign that said, effectively, “If there is water at this sign it’s ten feet deep at the intersection.”
Flood zones are supposed to flood, sure. They’re not supposed to flood like a damn slot canyon. Tell me what you’d do with a general area flash flood alert in the night or wee hours of the morning when you’re well above what is historically the highest it’s ever come up.
This is the point I was trying to make.
And I was reading about the 1987 flood in that same area. They were trying to evacuate a church camp when the wall of water hit a bus carrying kids. 10 of them perished. Damned if you do…
Well, that why they’re called “flash floods”, you can’t know.
It happens in a flash
Sad news, again from the BBC:
- The death toll has risen from 24 to 27, including 18 adults and nine children**,** says Kerr County Sheriff Larry L. Leitha. He adds that six of the adults and one child are unidentified
- Twenty-seven girls are still missing from Camp Mystic, but a “boots on the ground operation” is underway
From a CBC article:
AccuWeather said the private forecasting company and the National Weather Service sent warnings about the flash flooding hours before the devastation.
“These warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety.” AccuWeather said in a statement […]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/texas-floods-search-1.7578158
There definitely seems to be mixed messaging and cause to investigate the details of the warnings and lines of communication as it sounds like a broken game of telephone where the people making the decisions about the risk may not have had the skills to assess it. Perhaps a “boy who cried wolf” situation (“they’re always telling us it’ll flood and it’s never this bad”) and a sense of complacency.
Assuming, of course, anyone will step up to investigate and find a root cause with the intention of improving the system and not just a witch hunt for a scapegoat to make people feel safer.
In 2010, the Albert Pike campground, in Arkansas had a devastating flashflood at night.
At night!
Can you imagine how terrifying that was?
Waking up to a record setting flashflood and being washed away.
I think 25 or so people drowned.
It was ill reported/warned and remote as well.
Death toll is at 50 now.
A few of the campers have been reported dead, at least three, but two (of the same family) were found alive and evacuated.
Many kids, not even among the campers at Mystic Camp, are being reported dead, though… saddening. One father said both his daughters are dead. I can’t imagine going through that.
It must be a nightmare to even figure out all of the people who are missing.
Apparently the camp’s owner Dick Eastland died trying to save some of the girls.
What a horror 8 meters!!! 45 min warning. No escape and most were asleep. 
I can definitely imagine boy-cried-wolf being a big part of it. I’ve seen numerous flash-flood warnings in my part of Texas that either led to no flooding or only very mild ankle-high-or-slightly-higher stuff that passed quickly. With it being night, too, I can understand the counselors not wanting to wake up the girls for some flood that very well might not happen.
I was about 4 miles away when all this went down. My family stopped for gas and fast food in Comfort TX, then got back on I-10. As we were passing Kerrville all our phones started getting constant emergency alerts. Lots of rain, and all the streams had water in them but we didn’t see anything extreme. I-10 doesn’t cross the Guadalupe River, at least not in that area, so we didn’t see the flood.
We’re pretty familiar with those towns along the Guadalupe. My family has been to one of the summer camps on the river, seen 4th of July fireworks in Kerrville, and just last year we all slid down a slick spot on the dam in Ingram.
There is no better way to die than while trying to save others.
Reports are now coming out that the death toll has reached 70 with 11 girls still missing. Just heartbreaking.
The name Eastland caught my eye, a coincidence of tragically drowned young people.
SS Eastland was a passenger ship based in Chicago and used for tours. On 24 July 1915, the ship capsized while tied to a dock in the Chicago River.[1] In total, 844 passengers and crew were killed in what was the largest loss of life from a single shipwreck on the Great Lakes.
What time was this compared to the flood hitting the camp?
And that one was slightly higher than this one. Also in July. I can imagine warnings might be better. But twice in 38 years? Maybe not the best location for a camp.
The camp is over 700 acres. All they had to do was to put the places where the girls slept on high ground–instead of next to the river.