Massive measles outbreak - thank you, Andrew Fucking Wakefield

[Yllaria]

@Rick

OK, I’ll expose my gap in knowledge and take one for the team.
I’m 61 and had all the recommended vaxes as a child. I get a flu shot every year, I keep up on my tetanus shots, I will get the shingles vax this year. What boosters do I need?

The whooping cough is the big one. At least that’s the one that my doctor ordered for me.

[Ferret_Herder]

The tetanus shot is often rolled into a combo vaccine with whooping cough (pertussis) and diphtheria. Used to be called DPT, now it’s TDaP or DTap (sorry about any mis-capitalization there). It might be worth checking if you had a plain tetanus shot or a combo.

Also, the CDC has a list of recommended boosters for adults on their website. On my phone now so it’s hard for me to bring up a link but I’m sure someone will be along to post it or something similar.

[pdunderhill]

I have a really horrible sense of foreboding re Curlcoat, try and irritate the co-authors of a pro-science book enough and us good dopers will respond with politeness, patience, irritation and finally exasperation.

Now cherry pick some of our more stupefied and angry posts, despite this being the Pit, and I’m afraid we begin to look more rabid than the anti-vaxers themselves, ‘never get into a pissing contest with a Skunk’

Will a Mod put CurlCoat back in her box and please, please ban her or at least ground her and take her Fisher Price childs Laptop away from her?

Please?

Peter

[Jackmannii]

[QUOTE=pdunderhill]
Now cherry pick some of our more stupefied and angry posts, despite this being the Pit, and I’m afraid we begin to look more rabid than the anti-vaxers
[/quote]
Haven’t spent much time around antivaxers, huh?

[Catamount]

@Ferret_Herder

Also, the CDC has a list of recommended boosters for adults on their website. On my phone now so it’s hard for me to bring up a link but I’m sure someone will be along to post it or something similar.

Is this the one you were thinking of?

I’ve got a dr’s appointment next month–first one in a very long time. I’m guessing they’ll want to give me the tetanus-whatever booster because it’s been about 10+ years since I’ve had it. As long as they listen to me when I tell them I’m needlephobic, all will be good.

[Ferret_Herder]

@SpazCat

Is this the one you were thinking of?

I’ve got a dr’s appointment next month–first one in a very long time. I’m guessing they’ll want to give me the tetanus-whatever booster because it’s been about 10+ years since I’ve had it. As long as they listen to me when I tell them I’m needlephobic, all will be good.

Looks like it, yup. It even has a quiz to check your situation and give recommendations.

[Reepicheep]

@SpazCat

Is this the one you were thinking of?

Thank you SpazCat. According to the quiz I need two that I didn’t know I needed. Will be getting them in the next two weeks.

[Ferret_Herder]

There’s also a grid of injection recommendations if you pick the Recommended Schedule for Adults Aged 19 Years and Older—United States, 2013 link at the head of the list near the bottom of the page. It looks like a journal article when you click through, but scroll down and they have the charts and footnotes explaining the different reasoning.

I double-checked mine, and it recommended a booster for MMR, but I’m pretty sure the one I got in college (most US college/grad school students will be told to get one, last I checked) covers that. I suspect many people might fall into this category.

I already got the HepB series they recommended (I work in healthcare), and I got a Tdap a few years ago when whooping cough started making a comeback again, so I’ll need a Td booster every 10 years. That means yearly influenza shots for me, and a shingles (zoster) vaccination as soon as someone will let me get it.

[Kolga]

Many thanks to everyone who’s checking their booster status and making plans to get their appropriate boosters. Vaccine education has focused mostly on parents and children in recent years, leaving many adults thinking that they do not need vaccinations. Go spread the word!

[Andy_L]

@WhyNot

No, you still don’t got it.

You get a vaccination. Yay! It will reduce the chances that you’ll get the disease. Reduce. Not eliminate. Reduce.

So then I get vaccinated. Yay! It will reduce the chances that I’ll get the disease or that I’ll pass it to you. Reduce, not eliminate.

So now **curlcoat **doesn’t get vaccinated. She goes to Germany and gets measles, but before she gets symptoms, we pass her in the produce section and she coughs on us.

Ooops! We’ve only reduced, not eliminated, our risk of catching it from her. Like most people that have been vaccinated, I don’t get it, nor do I pass it on to you.

You aren’t so lucky. Your vaccine reduced, but didn’t eliminate your chances of catching it. You got it, and you’re dead. Or meningitis or pneumonia or hepatitis (all potential complications of measles, more common in adults than children) or if you’re really lucky, you just miss two weeks of work and income feeling like crap.

That’s herd immunity in a nutshell. Vaccines are effective, but not quite 100% effective. Add up a bunch of not-quite-100% effectives, and some of us who were vaccinated *will *get sick, just like some number of people will get pregnant each year despite using 98% effective birth control pills.

Yeah. When you get vaccinated, you directly reduce your chance of catching a disease if you’re exposed to it. When other people get vaccinated, it indirectly reduces your chance of getting a disease because it reduces the chance that you get exposed. Obviously, reducing your chance of getting exposed and reducing the chance of catching the disease if exposed, is really good news.

While we’re dealing with common vaccine misconceptions, here’s an interesting one. Suppose there’s a vaccine that is 90% effective in preventing disease, and 50% of the population gets the vaccine. In a population of 1000 people in which everyone is exposed, 500 people get the vaccine, and of those only 50 people get the disease, while all 500 of the unvaccinated people get the disease. So in the 1000 person population, only 550 get the disease.

Now raise the percentage of people who get the vaccine to 90%. 900 people get the vaccine, and out of them 90 people get the disease, while all 100 unvaccinated people get the disease. Only 190 people get the disease, but notice that almost half of them are vaccinated. This doesn’t mean that the vaccine isn’t working - it means that most people are vaccinated.

It can get even more confusing - when vaccine uptake gets to 95%, 950 people get vaccinated, and of them, 95 people get the disease; meanwhile only 50 unvaccinated people get the disease. Now the majority of 145 people who got the disease were vaccinated - but again this is because the vast majority of everybody was vaccinated. A clearer way to express this is that even though the unvaccinated make up only 5% of the population, they made up over 30% of the people who caught the disease.

[WhyNot]

@Andy_L

Yeah. When you get vaccinated, you directly reduce your chance of catching a disease if you’re exposed to it. When other people get vaccinated, it indirectly reduces your chance of getting a disease because it reduces the chance that you get exposed. Obviously, reducing your chance of getting exposed and reducing the chance of catching the disease if exposed, is really good news.

While we’re dealing with common vaccine misconceptions, here’s an interesting one. Suppose there’s a vaccine that is 90% effective in preventing disease, and 50% of the population gets the vaccine. In a population of 1000 people in which everyone is exposed, 500 people get the vaccine, and of those only 50 people get the disease, while all 500 of the unvaccinated people get the disease. So in the 1000 person population, only 550 get the disease.

Now raise the percentage of people who get the vaccine to 90%. 900 people get the vaccine, and out of them 90 people get the disease, while all 100 unvaccinated people get the disease. Only 190 people get the disease, but notice that almost half of them are vaccinated. This doesn’t mean that the vaccine isn’t working - it means that most people are vaccinated.

It can get even more confusing - when vaccine uptake gets to 95%, 950 people get vaccinated, and of them, 95 people get the disease; meanwhile only 50 unvaccinated people get the disease. Now the majority of 145 people who got the disease were vaccinated - but again this is because the vast majority of everybody was vaccinated. A clearer way to express this is that even though the unvaccinated make up only 5% of the population, they made up over 30% of the people who caught the disease.

Holy crap, this is awesome! Thank you so much for explaining that and sparing me being the next to take a hit for the “stupid questions” club. I was just wandering back by to ask why the anti-vax crew so often observe that the percent of vaccinated people of the sick population is actually rather high. It seems weird, and like maybe an indication that the vaccine isn’t that effective…but the way you explained it really helped me to understand that it’s actually a sign of the vaccine’s popularity, not ineffectiveness. Thank you!

[Andy_L]

@WhyNot

Holy crap, this is awesome! Thank you so much for explaining that and sparing me being the next to take a hit for the “stupid questions” club. I was just wandering back by to ask why the anti-vax crew so often observe that the percent of vaccinated people of the sick population is actually rather high. It seems weird, and like maybe an indication that the vaccine isn’t that effective…but the way you explained it really helped me to understand that it’s actually a sign of the vaccine’s popularity, not ineffectiveness. Thank you!

Glad you liked it.

[Battle_Pope]

Probably worth putting this here as well:

Children who were not vaccinated against preventable diseases account for more than half of Queensland’s child deaths in eight years.

Fifty-five of the 82 children who died from diseases from January 2004 to December 2012 were not vaccinated, the Commission for Children and Young People and Child Guardian has found.

Forty-three of those deaths were children aged under four years.

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2013/07/25/qld-child-deaths-linked-no-vaccinations

According to this site vaccination rates in Qld run to about 90%. So you have 10% of the population accounting for 55% of deaths from disease.

[Mr.Miskatonic]

Bumping this. Seems that the California 2010 Pertussis outbreak is now blamed squarely on anti-vaxx dipstains.

[Jackmannii]

@Mr.Miskatonic

Bumping this. Seems that the California 2010 Pertussis outbreak is now blamed squarely on anti-vaxx dipstains.

I think that overstates the case.

The study cited multiple factors as likely contributors to the outbreak, including waning vaccine efficacy over time and the cyclical nature of pertussis outbreaks, but the authors did note clustering of 2010 cases in areas of high vaccine refusal for non-medical reasons, and concluded that not vaccinating was a significant factor in this outbreak.

[LavenderBlue]

My daughter’s school has a brain on this issue. They’re requiring TDaP boosters for all entering sixth graders. We had a confirmed case of pertussis in the elementary school two years ago.

[Algher]

@Jackmannii

I think that overstates the case.

The study cited multiple factors as likely contributors to the outbreak, including waning vaccine efficacy over time and the cyclical nature of pertussis outbreaks, but the authors did note clustering of 2010 cases in areas of high vaccine refusal for non-medical reasons, and concluded that not vaccinating was a significant factor in this outbreak.

I am in that dataset for CA - my vaccine wore off apparently.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

It seems to me that the anger is being misdirected here.

The stupid people will always be with us, and will do things like believe this crap and not vaccinate their kids.

We know that. Which is why we organize things like governments and public health officials to protect society from the stupidity of some people.

It is the governments and public health officials of Wales who have failed here, and they are the ones who should get the anger and blame.

Why did they allow un-vaccinated children to enter schools & daycares in Wales?

[Great_Antibob]

@t-bonham@scc.net

It is the governments and public health officials of Wales who have failed here, and they are the ones who should get the anger and blame.

Wales? We’re talking California here. And, to a lesser extent, Texas.

Though, to be fair, nobody expects many good things out of the governments of California or Texas.

[Gyrate]

@Great_Antibob

Wales? We’re talking California here. And, to a lesser extent, Texas.

My original rant was about the measles outbreak in Wales.