Once again, you might be able to see Auroras tonite, please read:
Space Weather News for July 13, 2000
Stargazers in both hemispheres are advised to watch for auroras tonight as the result of a strong solar wind disturbance that struck Earth’s magnetosphere at approximately 0940 UT (5:40 a.m. EDT) on July 13th. The
strong geomagnetic storm that started this morning may now be subsiding, but another interplanetary shock wave is expected to arrive on July 14th and extend the current period of geomagnetic unrest. Auroral displays at
middle latitudes are possible (but by no means guaranteed) around local midnight on July 13th through 15th. For more information please visit:
Thanks, Jois. Is this from the Astro Alert newsletter?
The way they word the announcements is almost frightening – they’re not talking about massive solar flares scorching Pennsylvania, but it sure sounds like it. Shock waves. Geomagnetic disturbances. Oh my.
It’s clear here tonight, but I doubt I can stay up that late. Let us know if you see anything.
I saw a lot of weird things but I wasn’t in a legal state of mind
No, thanks for the FYI. I’ll check it out. I also read there is going to be a total eclipse of the Moon on July 16 at 4:57 am PDT. The umbral phase will be visible in the western US and western Canada.
Auntie Pam, I subscribed to one sky watch kind of service that was connected to a magazine I do not subscribe to and get the notices from 3-4 different groups, seems to rotate, no more than one per day and all from governmental agencies or sources. No trash or spam seems to come from this but I can’t recall which was the original. Send me an email if you would like me to send you the next few in a row. Jois
Could be a big one, folks. The latest Astro Alert:
A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
14 July 2000
* Major Significant X5 Proton Flare Alert *
* Category S3 Solar Radiation Storm Alert *
* Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning *
* Low Latitude Auroral Activity Watch *
At 10:24 UTC on 14 July, the largest solar flare to be directly observed so far this solar cycle was spawned by active sunspot Region 9077, which has now exploded with a total of three major X-class flares. Todays flare was the largest of all and the most serious, reaching an X5 category in x-rays and accelerating very high energy protons toward the Earth.
Within minutes of the flare, very high energy (estimated much higher than 100 MeV) protons impacted the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere at near relativistic velocities (almost the speed of light). This is the most significant energetic solar radiation storm since solar cycle 22. Energetic proton densities at energies greater than 100 MeV have increased by a factor of more than 3 magnitudes (1000 times higher than normal). Protons with energies greater than 10 MeV, which are generally considered the lowest energy protons capable of producing satellite anomalies, increased in density by a factor almost 5 magnitudes (not quite 100,000 times) greater than normal background levels.
This solar radiation storm is currently categorized as an S3 event and is approaching a category S4 event (S1 being weak and S5 being extreme). People on Earth are safe from the effects of these adverse space environment conditions. Satellites and people in orbit are at highest risk. Here are some of the possible effects of an S3/S4 radiation storm:
* Unavoidable biological radiation hazard to astronauts performing EVA
(spacewalk) activities.
* Elevated levels of radiation exposure to passengers and crew in
commercial jets travelling across the high and polar latitude regions
(lower latitude aircraft are not at risk). The increased radiation
exposure would be equivalent to receiving approximately 5 to 10 chest
x-rays.
* Satellites can experience memory upset problems, noise on imaging
systems, star-tracker orientation problems, and solar panel
degradation.
* Ionospheric radio signal propagation has been completely blacked out
for all communications paths that traverse through the high latitude
and polar latitude ionospheres. No high frequency (2 to 30 MHz) radio
communications through the high and polar ionospheres are expected
until later on 16 or 17 July.
There have already been numerous confirmed anomalies on spacecraft. The SOHO spacecraft is experiencing significant noise on its imaging systems, which is rendering scientists abilities to monitor solar activity more difficult. The ACE spacecraft has suffered suspected contamination in its ability to accurately measure the speed and density of the solar wind. And the POLAR spacecraft (which images auroral activity and other important space environment properties) is unable to produce images of auroral activity due to suspected contamination of its imaging systems (these are just a few examples).
Again, we must emphasize that people on Earth are at no risk to these events. The Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere protect life on Earth from radiation exposure. Even people flying in aircraft really have nothing to worry about. This is primarily a space-based radiation problem that is of more concern to astronauts and satellite operators than anyone else.
Today's major X5 solar flare was associated with a full halo coronal mass ejection that is expected to make a near head-on collision with the Earth. The velocity of the disturbance is not known precisely because of the level of proton-induced image degradation in the SOHO cameras. Radio observations of the flare revealed a strong inner-coronal shock wave that had an estimated velocity of 1,300 kilometers per second. However, SOHO team members determined a possible disturbance velocity (in the outer corona) as high as perhaps 1,775 kilometers per second.
Predictions on the time of arrival of this disturbance will vary depending on the type of data that is used. However, it appears that the disturbance may arrive between approximately 19:00 UTC on 15 July (3 pm EDT on 15 July) and 16:00 UTC on 16 July (noon EDT on 16 July). The arrival of this disturbance is virtually certain to occur.
This disturbance is expected to have a potentially high impact on space-based systems when it arrives. Spacecraft operating in geosynchronous orbits near the noon-sector of their orbits (when they lie between the Sun and the Earth, as viewed from the Earth) are expected to cross through the protective shield of the Earth's magnetosphere into the magnetosheath region when the higher pressure from the solar wind behind the disturbance compresses the Earth's magnetosphere on the dayward side to altitudes inside the orbit where geosynchronous spacecraft operate. This can produce pointing-related anomalies on geosynchronous spacecraft and can increase overall wear and tear on solar panels and other exposed equipment. There will also be a chance for numerous spacecraft charging related anomalies that may occur on orbiting spacecraft in general if the disturbance triggers a significant geomagnetic storm. The Earth's atmosphere may also begin to bloom outward and increase atmospheric drag on lower orbiting spacecraft - particularly those with perigees below 500 kilometers.
A major to severe geomagnetic storm may be associated with the arrival of the disturbance on 15/16 July. Hydro and electric power utilities may observe induced electrical currents on their transmission lines caused by electrical currents induced by rapid variations in the Earth's magnetic field. These currents can produce damage to electrical transformers and other equipment used by power companies to deliver electricity to end users. This does NOT mean your computer will explode. Power companies protect end users from the effects of induced electrical currents caused by geomagnetic storms. A worst case scenario would be the temporary loss of power caused by perhaps the failure of a power transformer or some other sensitive equipment. And the chance of this happening is very low for any specific region.
A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued together with a low latitude auroral activity watch for all middle and low latitude regions of the Earth. This disturbance has the potential to produce intense displays of auroral activity over these regions. Observers interested in watching for these events on their home computers are encouraged to obtain a copy of the free STD Aurora Monitor software package, which will provide near-realtime updated information and imagery that you can use to monitor conditions as they happen. The software is available at: http://www.spacew.com/aurora. It is a relatively small download of only 2.5 megabytes but is an immensely useful package for monitoring auroral activity. Sky & Telescope has graciously agreed to serve as an additional mirror for this software. We apologize for not having versions available for Macintosh or Linux systems. Other users may visit: http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html.
WE WOULD APPRECIATE IT IF PEOPLE WOULD SUBMIT SIGHTINGS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO THE AURORAL ACTIVITY OBSERVATIONS NETWORK AT:
http://www.spacew.com/www/subaurora.html
Or use the aforementioned software to submit your sightings to the Network.
There is a chance active sunspot Region 9077 might spawn additional energetic activity over the next several days. However, some decay has been observed in the region which may reduce its ability to produce energetic activity.
This sounds terribly interesting.
Could someone tell an idiot like me if possibility of aurora is on the 14th or the 15?
I’ve read this several times and it still doesn’t make sense to me.I can’t decide if the event will happen on the 14th causing the aurora afterwards, or if the aurora should happen when the event starts and stop when it stops.
I’m sorry if this is incoherent.
I need more caffine.
We are in an eleven year sun cycle - this year the sun pops bubbles or loops of energy that rapidly travel through the solar system and get eaten or absorbed or something by earth’s atmosphere. It is this something that we get to see as auroras in parts of the world that usually don’t get to see them.
The scientists who observe this kind of event are trying to give us a percent chance (like weather) of seeing the auroras but what looks pretty spectacular on the sun’s surface might be a fizzle by the time it gets to us (several? hours later).
If you are thinking of taking the bunnies out to observe the auroras around midnight and don’t want to keep waking them up for nothing - toughie. You have to pay attentin to the clouds in your areas as well at the predictions.
Rain predicted - auroras tonite!
Space Weather News for July 15, 2000
A powerful shock wave from the fast-moving July 14th coronal mass ejection
has arrived in the neighborhood of Earth. An extreme geomagnetic storm
was underway at 1900 UT (3:00 p.m. EDT) on July 15th. If conditions
persist as they are now, aurora could be visible at middle (and possibly
even equatorial) latitudes. The best time to view aurora is usually near
local midnight. In this case, sky watchers are advised to look for aurora
as soon as night falls. For more information and updates please visit http://www.spaceweather.com
Readers are invited to send pictures of tonight’s aurora and the July 16,
2000, total lunar eclipse (visible across the Pacific Ocean) as an email
attachment to phillips@spacescience.com for possible posting on spaceweather.com and/or spacescience.com.
