On Monday the Supreme Court is expected to deliver the opinion in McDonald v. Chicago. The case is about the handgun ban currently in place in Chicago.
The expectation is that the ban will be overturned. Alan Gura, the attorney that took DC v. Heller to the Supreme Court and won, is arguing this case as well. His argument, leapfrogging off of the Heller decision, is a 14th Amendment argument. As a result, it is expected that this case will Incorporate the 2nd Amendment. If you’ve read the briefs and the transcripts of the oral arguments, there is little doubt that Gura will win. For it to be otherwise the Supreme Court will have to reverse their stance established only two years ago in Heller.
This case has other ramifications as well, ones that are much larger than just guns. Gura, in his briefs and oral arguments, sought to reinstate the Privileges or Immunities Clause of the 14th Amendment, something that was essentially killed back in 1873 with the Slaughter-House Cases. Justice Scalia, during the oral arguments, displayed considerable hostility to the idea that the Court should overturn Slaughter-House, and it was thought that the idea died right then and there. However, there are others that disagree and think that it might actually happen. Alito is expected to write the opinion, and he appeared to support the idea of reinstating the PorI clause.
If it does happen, this has a few interesting effects. The Privileges or Immunities Clause reads as follows:
If the Court reinstates the clause, it is believed that the entire Bill of Rights will be Incorporated. It is also believed that this will be the legal precept that will make same-sex marriage universal. Not that that won’t eventually happen via due process, but this will hasten the matter considerably. Some have suggested that reinstatement of the PorI clause will immediately invalidate any prohibition on same-sex marriage. That seems a bit of a stretch, but you can see how the possibility of this decision is a big deal.
Putting that aside, whether or not the Court reinstates PorI or affirms it using due process, the 2nd Amendment will be Incorporated on Monday. I’m as certain of that as I am that the sun will rise. One question will still remain which the Court may or may not address: in Heller, Scalia left the door open for “reasonable restriction” but did not detail what those would be, nor what level of scrutiny 2nd Amendment cases should get. I wonder if they’ll duck that and defer it for later or if they’ll elaborate with this decision.
This could be a BIG decision for a lot of people depending upon how it turns out. I can’t wait to read the opinions on Monday. I’m particularly interested in Breyer’s dissent, what with his weird diversions over “ordered liberty” during the oral arguments, riffing off of Chicago’s doomed argument.
If you’re like me and you’ve been awaiting this decision, you can follow Monday’s festivities on SCOTUSblog as they happen. I’m excited. Who would have ever thought that this day would come after everything that has happened in the last 40 years? For gun owners these last 6 years have been nothing short of magical, and completely unexpected.