Okay, so I don’t fully trust this book I’m reading called Final Exits. It’s about death and all the different ways to get it to happen. I’ve already found one error in it about Fatty Arbuckle. (Virginia Rappe was NOT murdered, she died possibly from a botched abortion.) But anyway, under the topic of meteors, it quotes, “Currently, NASA and other agencies are making plans to protect the United States from the inevitable large meteor impact scheduled to hit in 2029.”
Excuse me, but EXCUSE ME??? What meteor?? Here I was, laughing off the whole Mayan 2012 thing, and now this? I mean, I know there was only supposed to be two popes left to go before the end of the world, but come on!
I seem to remember vaguely some kerfuffle a couple of months ago about some scientists calculating that a big meteor was going to hit us in a few years, but I forgot which year. Was it 2029? But I also recall after that report that some other scientists said that those scientists were wrong, or that maybe they were the same scientists and meant something else. Anyway the whole mess was retracted, or explained away. Or something. I hate my brain when it’s sloppy like this. My brain is really pissing me off these days.
So, do any Dopers remember something about this? Or has anyone heard about this meteor that’s supposed to hit us in 2029? I’ll be sixty-seven. Well anyway, that’s older than my Dad got. That’s something, I guess.
Most of them are small enough to burn up in the amoshpere, or at least break up enough that their impact on the ground is negligible. The last significant one to cause damage that I know of was the Tunguska meteor (or comet, whatever), which had an estimated blast force equivalent estimated at around 10-15 megatons, which could put the object somewhere around 50 meters in diameter. 99942 Apophis is estimated at about 270 meters in diameter, which would be a devastating impact if it hit the planet.
Fortunately the likelihood of it hitting are pretty remote, so we probably have nothing to worry about.
For those playing along at home- Apophis will not hit the Earth in 2029. In 2029, we’ll find out if it’ll hit us in 2036. It probably won’t hit us in 2036, either.
This will not be a global killer. It will be like a nuke or three going off. Certainly devastating to the area it hits but most of the world will be fine.
Now, if they predict it will hit, say, Chicago then the intervening years will be unpleasant for Chicagoans (and vicinity).
ETA: Reading more I guess it will be a lot more than a few nukes in power. So, while probably not a global killer, I suppose it will cause plenty of damage no matter where it hits (if it hits).
ETA2: Projected path looks like hitting a densely populated region are small although I am guessing a hit in the ocean will spawn serious tsunami which may well devastate a lot of places. Chicago looks ok though.
Over 100 tons of meteoritic material hit the Earth every day, most of it in very small pieces. I can’t think of any reason why that shouldn’t continue to happen in 2029. So yes, a meteor (well, a meteoroid) will hit Earth in 2029. Also in 2036.
I’ll do better than that. I’ll bet one million US dollars with anyone who cares to that an asteroid will not wipe out all human life in 2029. I’m also accepting bets that it won’t happen in 2010, 2012, or 2036, same terms. If it does, I pay you $1,000,000. If it doesn’t, you pay me $1,000,000. Have I got any takers?
We don’t think it would affect the whole world, though. The current thinking is that an asteroid needs to be about 1 kilometer wide to do that. We think the dinosaur killer was about 10 km in diameter. Apophis could devastate an area (a wide area, if it hit the ocean and caused tsunamis), but it’s not going to cause a global disaster even if it does hit us. Unless you’re near where it hits, or on the beach when the tsunamis come in (as seen in Deep Impact), you’ll probably still have to go to that family reunion or buy that 50th anniversary present. Sorry.
