To pass the time, I sometimes try to guess the ages of celebrities and other people who I lack factual information about. Today, I was watching an episode of the Dick Van Dyke show on TV, and I tried to guess how old Morey Amsterdam was. I came pretty close–I guessed he was born in 1910, and he was born in December of 1908.
My method was to come up with the youngest he could possibly be, based on his appearance, which had him born in 1923, and the oldest (1903) --the next step was to take the average of those two points, 1913, and then to guess if was older or younger than that date. I guessed “older” so I again averaged that year, 1913 with the older figure, 1903, yielding 1908, and then I averaged that date with the older figure once more, and once again, giving me a final figure of 1910. It usually works out pretty accurately.
It’s funny, though, because when I was younger, in my teens, I was terrible at guessing how old grownups were. All I could state was that they were older than me, but from their 30s through their 60s, they all looked alike to me.
That’s exactly what I use–how people look. I might get fooled if someone much older or younger than they really are, and actors (in makeup and costumes) are probably among those who could fool me most readily. I usually try to guess real people. The way I’d be off the most is in an error on my part in the early stages.
My initial guess might be that someone looks to be 50 at the youngest and 70 at the oldest, which is usually pretty safe But the danger is in deciding the person is likelier to be between 50 and 60 than between 60 and 70. If the person is a young-looking 65 then I’m never going to get even fairly close. And if I choose without even getting the parameters right then of course I’m way off–say, if the person is really 75.
But I’ve rarely if ever done that. Typically my parameters are right (if sometimes very broad) and my initial guess as to which end of the parameters to choose is very often the right one.
I’m watching Nicole Wallace right now. I have no idea how old she is. But she can’t possibly be any younger than 45 nor older than 55. To be safe, let’s say 40 to 60. Is she in the younger half (40-50) or in the older (50-60)? I’ll say the latter. So the midpoint there is 55.
Now is she closer to 50 or 60? I’d guess 50, making her age about 52-53.
