Holy Shit! I see a big window of opportunity for the security of the northern boundary for Israel.
Either Nazrallah is deadly serious, and he usually is, or he feels a political need to express a tactical failure.
The second option suggests to me the following private exchanges between ordinary Lebanese and Nazrallah’s representatives doling out cash.
Lebonese citizen: You know, Hezbollah, we’re on your side and we appreciate your protection from the Allah-awful Zionists, but what the hell was all this about. Oh by the way I appreciate the $8000 you just gave me to help rebuild my house from disaster. Fuck, you guys sure seem to be a hell of a lot better organized than the Geat Satin’s FEMA. It only took a couple of days too. But we were doing so well and now its going to take more tha $8000 to rebuild my home and you know damn well that you put my family at risk by launching Katushas from the roof of the building next door. What the hell were you thinking?
Hezbollah: Hmmm. We didn’t expect this.
Either way, it appears that the Israeli strategy for the war may have cleared the way for for a new phase of peace. Hezbollah has first hand information that the Lebonese people don’t want to go through this bullshit again and won’t support them and/or Nazrallah made a statement admitting limits to the justification for harrassing Israel.
Israel should emphasize taking Nazrallah at his word. They should make a public expression of having received his statement and withdraw immediately from Lebanon.
Put Nazrallah to the test by respecting his word, and let the whole world know it.
I can’t see Nazrallah getting around his admission and resuming harrassment.
I heard the same on the BBC World Service last night.
They backed it up with an ‘ordinary’ Lebanese saying how hacked off he was at having his village flattened - one house contained a Hezbollah arms cache.
I notice how Nazrallah did not mention the first Katyushas.
He also said that Israel would kill him if they knew where he was.
It is a very interesting development, I agree with your analysis and suggestions.
Hezbollah must be under pressure, and I reckon that someone has put the squeeze on Nazrallah - my bet goes on Syria offering him a one way ticket to N. Lebanon (N. Lebanon has a Mullah from the UK that they would dearly like to get their hands on).
I can see an outbreak of friendliness with Syria.
Now if Hamas melts away, we could actually see a pleasant outcome.
Incidentally, if those two Israeli soldiers are still alive, then it would be a dead smart move to stick them under a shower, and hand them over without trying to negotiate a deal.
The Israelis /cannot/ be seen to negotiate, but they would look churlish if they did not reciprocate.
I am not following the reasoning here. If the Bad People capture Israeli soldiers, the Israelis invade. If the Bad People kill the same soldiers, not much happens.
Doesn’t Israel’s actions create a perverse incentive* to kill rather than capture their soldiers? Is that a good idea?
That’s actually a good question.
I think Israel’s reaction to the capturing of soldiers has mush to do with the Jewish principle of Pidyon Shvuyim (The Redemption of Captives).
Well, it would be hard to judge…since ‘the bad people’ captured 2 soldiers AND killed 3 others doing so. Also, they tossed off some rockets at several Israeli settlements at the same time.
So, what combination of those events sparked the retaliatory strikes? Or was it a straw breaking the camels back scenerio?
As to the OP, I have no idea what this may or may not mean. I also read it earlier and was scratching my head. I will say that in Nazrallah’s statement was that he was still distorting the facts as to how things initially began, at least from what I read. That doesn’t give me a lot of comfort that things are moving in a good direction…