Mideast war and political consequences

Not sure where it comes from but there is a comment above my post:
“As it is the OP hijacking his own thread. It appears they’re expanding the thread’s subject. {WE?}”

Just to clarify, this thread is about both the war and its political consequences as indicated by both the title and the opening post, so no I am not hijacking my own thread.

I am a Jew but can only speak as an individual. This is low on my list of what terrifies me about Trump.

His dynamic is more his Putin worship vs his need for adulation from his base which includes some very pro Israel fundamentalist Christians. Putin would love to see the United States withdraw from its involvement in the ME and cede it to Russian and China to squabble over. But his base would balk at that. What is a narcissistic wannabe fascist dictator Putin fanbois to do?

I suspect Israeli ground operations will be limited. I hope the counterstrike in Iran that will happen in the not distant future is calibrated to be small enough to be considered a deescalation. Iran has some face saved but is defanged for now and maybe a ceasefire then happens. I dream.

:roll_eyes:

Civilians like Nasrallah?

Maybe you should cite some of these mysterious “reports”.

Oh, ok, so the reports say that there is heavy fighting, not that Israel is struggling? Or did you quote the wrong “reports”?

But you also describe Israel as “bombing buildings and killing civilians”, so I suppose I should have been more skeptical to begin with.

Per Hagari, the goal is a limited invasion to clear out Hezbollah strongholds from southern Lebanon, with no plan to permanently push Hezbollah from the region or hold the territory.

(Video is in English.)

I would say 8 soldiers being killed before Israeli troops have barely entered Lebanon is a pretty bad start.
As for civilians I believe the death toll of children alone in Gaza is close to 20,000.

That’s when happens when you place your terrorist strongholds under homes, hospitals, and schools. But I’m sure you deny that reality, too.

So every child that was killed was over a terrorist stronghold?I would love to see the detailed evidence for that for the 20000 that have been killed.

So Israel bombs children for shits and giggles? I am sure you have at least an ounce of evidence for that claim.

I’m sure that’s the exact same standard you apply to every other ongoing war on the planet, right?

Actually yes I would condemn pretty much any government which kills 20000 children in the space of one year in a place with a total population of 2 million. Which other recent wars is this true?

Nice try, buddy, but the question is whether you insist that every military release detailed information about how it chose to target every strike, or if you only apply that to Israel.

The ratio of combatants to non combatants killed has been about 1 to 3; can you name any other modern war in a heavily urban environment with that good a ratio?

First do you have a reliable source for that ratio ? And what is the general ratio for other similar wars. Without accurate data it’s hardly possible to make any assessment.

Anyway thinking of recent wars, I have no problems condemning the governments of Russia, Syria and Myanmar. All of them have committed war crimes just like Israel has.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-07-25/

If anything the ratio in this war is better, closer to 1:1.5 than 1:3.

1:3 is what the ratio has tended to be for Israeli/Palestinian conflicts. Eventually the Palestinian numbers end up relatively reliable, once they drop obvious lies like the alleged 471 dead in a parking lot (from a misfired PIJ rocket mind you) a few years after the shooting stops. Around that same time, they tend to admit that the Israeli count of fighters was correct.

1:9 is the more standard global rate for urban warfare.

Yes, all three of those governments deliberately and systematically kill, displace, and reeducate civilians in order to ethnically cleansed their nations (or the land they desire to add to their nation, in Russia’s case). Unlike Israel.

I mean your source just quotes an estimate provided by the Israeli government with zero independent analysis or evidence.
What is your source for 1:9 for a general ratio for urban warfare. Which recent wars has this been observed?

So do you demand “independent analysis” for every claim the US army makes? What about European armies?

There are lots of sources; here’s the UN:

I mean there is just a headline saying that 90% of casualties are civilians according to speakers. There is not even a specific person quoted. Can you point to some actual study which ideally looks at specific wars.

As for independent analysis sure, I don’t take at face value statements made by governments about their own potential misdeeds. That definitely includes the US army in Iraq/Afghanistan etc.

@Lantern2 not my thread, so let me know? Is this a thread specifically about the political implications of recent events in Lebanon and the widening of conflict, or another thread to repeat the same back and forth about Gaza?

Speculation, especially informed, about what happens next, I am interested in reading about. The stuff above (that admittedly I sped over) not so much so.

So if that’s what it is please let me know so I can bug out.

Thanks.

That’s where the OP took it himself, with comments like: