Mideast war and political consequences

I am asking them.

Their thread. Fine if that’s what it is. If I really want one to discuss what I was interested in I can always create it.

Just don’t want to waste my time scrolling through a thread that is not that.

DSeid,
Fair enough. We can keep this thread for strategic analysis of the current war and discussions of its political implications.
Babale, if you want to start a thread about civilian casualties in the Gaza war feel free.

If you’re going to make comments about Israel bombing civilians, I am going to challenge their factual accuracy. If that’s not the topic you want for this thread, how about don’t post jabs about it?

When you stop bringing up the topic, I will stop replying about it. :slight_smile:

Thank you.

I think that civilian casualties are a fair topic: Lebanon is small. Assuming the best intent to precisely target, there will be others hurt. And in a ground offensive? More so.

It is part of why I hope Israel keeps a limited scope of operations. Diminishing returns vs civilian harms, death and otherwise.

Hezbollah is claiming to have destroyed 3 Merkava tanks with rockets. If that is true, then Israel’s ground offensive has really gotten to a bad start. One thing that will be interesting to watch is the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal in defending against Israeli ground attacks as opposed to attacking Israeli cities where they have generally proved ineffective.

Are we only discussing US political implications or local/regional ones as well? I’m very curious about the current status of the many other political factions in Lebanon (not to mention the significant numbers of Palestinian refugees).

There’s already a perfectly “good” Pit thread for that.

You can discuss the political implications for the region too. Incidentally while I am skeptical that Nasrallah’s death will have much of an impact on Hezbollah’s fighting capacity in a ground war which I suspect will be formidable, I do think it will have a negative long-term impact on Hezbollah’s political position in Lebanon. Basically I think Hezbollah will remain united and cohesive for the duration of the war but will struggle without Nasrallah’s leadership afterwards.

It’s possible, but I’m pretty dubious for a couple of reasons.

First, I’m not seeing any reporting of this outside of “Hezbollah claimed”.

Second, Hezbollah killed 8 soldiers in two incidents earlier, ambushing an attempted medevac. The Israelis publically announced this and named all of the casualties, and there is footage (on Twitter pages like Geoconfirmed) of the medevac.

There is even footage of a Merkava tank outside the town where Hezbollah claimed they destroyed three tanks:

And yet, no footage of destroyed tanks.

Hezbollah made the claim that they destroyed the tanks over 5 hours ago; you’d think if it was true, there’d be corroboration from Israel by now, or footage of the destroyed tanks, or something.

On the other hand, I don’t find official IDF statements denying it or anything; maybe corroboration will come in the future.

Far too late for that. You blew up your own thread.

I’m going to close this mess now.

Moderating: