Yep, the next conflict won’t divide the US neatly along state lines. I could see rural farmers refusing to sell their produce to city markets, gun shops refusing to sell firearms to anyone they suspect of being on the other side of the political divide.
Well to be fair, our food is grown by Mexican immigrants and red staters are already making it impossible for them to do their jobs. As far as whether I want to live in a country populated by scientists, doctors and professionals, or one populated by Paul Blart mall cops, that’s a pretty easy call.
So how are you going to make this country populated by ‘scientists, doctors, and professionals’ - are you going to kill or expel the 1/3 red staters? How are you going to maintain order without police or prisons and independence without a formal military or militia? If you cut out the ‘red’ areas from a state and have a little city-state, what are you going to do when the lower classes start to get discontent, or when you have crime waves to deal with? Especially, what will you do if those hated ‘red staters’ close down their prisons and send the worst of the gangbangers and whatnot right back into your city?
All of this ‘blue state secession’ stuff is pure fantasy, there’s not a plausible path for how you get there (unless you start mass murder or mass expulsions) or how you maintain a functional country with such hostile neighbors. And that’s not even getting into things like how desperately dependent Blue California is on a bunch of Red areas just to have a functioning water supply!
Again dude, for like the fourth time: I’m not saying that this is a planned, or managed process. I’m also not saying that it will happen during this pandemic.
What I am saying is that we are no longer countrymen. We don’t share a culture or values. Indeed, our values are diametrically opposed. We are coming apart at the seams. The current system is predicated on Trumpland embracing virulent racism, anti-science and opposition to democracy. Trumpland is also based on blue state America always footing the bills and always acting like the adults in the room.
I’m also saying that we are rapidly approaching a point when blue state America simply can’t pay for Trumpland anymore; that their rejection of science has made their lands untenable as a developed nation. As Trumpland continues it’s slide, blue state America will have to cut it loose. It simply costs too much and provides too little (it’s surplus of security guards aside).
I’m not saying it’s going to be planned, I’m not saying it’s not going to be messy. I’m not even saying that it’s not too late. We missed our window on climate change thanks to red staters.
What I am saying is that it is inevitable and that red staters’ radical pro-pollution, anti-democracy, violent rhetoric and policies are largely to blame. I don’t know who is going to be post master General, I don’t know how we’re going to help the people of color, gays and intellectuals stuck in Trumpists; I don’t know how we’re going to handle zip-coding for Arkansas. I do know that it’s falling apart. Deal with it
Again dude, for like the fourth time: as much as you want to ignore it and obfuscate, your fantasy of blue states splitting off and forming a society with all doctors, professionals, and scientists while the red staters stay away is pure fantasy. Trying to pretend that a question like “how are you going to deal with the fact that about 1/3 of your blue states are composed of people with red state values, and they tend to dominate the organizations that have power when things fall apart” is akin to some piddling, irrelevant detail like “zip-coding for Arkansas” just shows how much of a fantasyland you’re living in.
If the US does fall apart, it’s not going to be neat ‘blue state, red state’ lines, and the ‘red staters’ have (as I’ve pointed out) a huge advantage during a state of disorder, since even if their numbers are smaller (which is questionable, a lot of people don’t fit neatly into either) they tend to be concentrated in organizations that can wield a lot of power during a collapse, and are better armed on an individual level.
FFS, societies don’t fall apart according to plan. If any of this comes to pass it will be unpredictable, unorganized and likely full of very bloody unintended consequences. Denying the feasibility of an orderly secession from the United States doesn’t mean that things won’t come apart in a much less orderly way.
Wow. 
I said I agreed with the Poster, and that mine was a Nitpick. Did you Google “Nitpick”?
If your claim is that 30% is “more than 1/3” perhaps you should just bump the 1≠0.99999… thread. 
NETA: Did you ever figure out those I-E clading dates?
It would be better if red state America stopped being anti-democratic and anti-science. It would be better if they took this moment as a wake up call to examine their entire belief system and commit to joining modern society and pulling their own weight, but that’s not going to happen. And when a split comes, blue state America is going to be in a much better position then Trumpistan.
Have you seen the NY Times article tracking people’s social isolation habits by tracking their cell phone movements? Trumpistan carried on as if nothing had changed.
Where America Didn’t Stay Home Even as the Virus Spread - The New York Times
Does that sound like a society that is going to thrive in the 21st century? During this pandemic, their president trotted out a guy who makes pillows to tell people to read the bible. I really don’t see them being able to maintain any kind of modern state without blue state subsidies and support.
I don’t know quite what upset you so, but I assure you that was not my intent. All I meant was that, nitpick or no, I don’t think 3% is significant to the broader point being discussed. But it’s certainly not worth the electrons to hash out.
That’s the only way I see the USA breaking up. If things get so bad that society effectively falls apart. Like I’m talking about where the Federal government literally can’t function (not just functions inefficiently or ineptly). I mean like you can’t get mail or internet anymore.
FFS dude it sounds like you’re agreeing with me that the it’s silly to say that Blue Staters are going to cleanly split off from the US, populated by 40% Red Staters and form a great society of doctors, scientists, and professionals that somehow won’t have any problems resulting from the fact that it’s now composed of 30% or more Red staters instead of 40%. I am denying the feasibility of a ‘Blue State’ secession, not just an ‘orderly secession’ - it would have to be much, much messier than the fantasies people are posting.
Again, this is a bald assertion that you’ve failed to support over and over again. “Blue State America” still has a lot of “Trumpistan” people in it, and you’ve failed to address anything at all about how they deal with that. “Blue State America” is just a fantasy construction, there aren’t any states that are devoid of “Red State” people.
Furthermore, in your hypothetical split, “Trumpistan” has significantly more support in the federal military, state national guards, police forces, large landowners, and agriculture owners, and a lot more personal weaponry than blue state America. In some kind of open revolt scenario where government breaks down, I would say that the advantage goes to the people with the organized and personal violence on their side plus most of the land and food production. Again, you keep failing to even touch on this little issue.
My ancestors for the last two hundred years have come from from four counties on the NY/PA border. Watching the comments on Facebook from family and friend’s posts makes me wonder when they will start shooting…
Were a state to secede, then that state’s law enforcement functions would be executed by the existing police hierarchy. That hierarchy would presumably be operating with a mandate from the state legislature, reflecting at least a plurality, if not outright majority, of public opinion in that state. Those who remained loyal to the central government could then either: a) resign, b) resist, or c) move. If you are purporting that loyalists could resist to such an extent that they could override the public will, then you are in effect describing an undemocratic coup. Given the more than two centuries of experience that Americans have in self-rule, I find that to be even less likely an outcome than simple state secession, which at least has the precedent of actually having occurred in American history.
Historically, regions which produce raw commodities have been poorer when compared to those which specialize in trade or industrial production. The greatest world power of the 19th and early 20th century, Great Britain, was an illustrative exemplar of this principle. If you don’t believe me, you can examine the actions taken by Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler during wartime (to varying levels of success) to deprive the British of their commodity inputs. The links of trade between supplier and supplied were sufficiently durable in each case, even during the extreme conditions of open warfare. A hypothetical Bear State Republic could simply import its raw materials. Its what rich, advanced states have done for centuries.
Food is a particularly poor commodity on which to found a state’s economic power, as it can be produced almost anywhere. Even a relatively rare commodity such as cobalt, necessary in high-strength alloy and lithium battery production, has hardly lifted the Democratic Republic of Congo (accounting for more than 50% of global supply) out of extreme poverty. The only exception in recent times has been for petroleum producers, but even there the record is mixed (Algeria, Angola, Republic of the Congo).
In a nutshell, yes. As I previously noted in this thread, two of the largest mass migrations in human history were effected within the last 80 years as a direct consequence of the dissolution of two states, the Third Reich and the British Raj. In each case, there was also tremendous attendant bloodshed.
This comes across as a rather disingenuous offer, given that the dissolution of the US is likely to render any online financial transactions involving Americans to be highly problematic, at best. Moreover, there is also the issue of how one defines the “end” of a pandemic.
However, given these constraints, I would still be willing to accept your wager. Not at straight up odds, though - that is also disingenuous, as no one in this thread has asserted that a US dissolution is likely. Personally, I see it as rather unlikely, but not implausibly so, and so I would wager 1g of gold against your 10g of gold.
Is it also eye-roll-worthy that a US state just two days ago was conducting de facto foreign policy?
Well if the ginger group was 100% of the 0.5% of the USA who form the military they’d probably win. And without that 0.5% the best the 15% can hope for is a political settlement.
No. The thing that keeps farmers awake at night is the (remote/fanciful) possibility that the city will stop buying their produce.
After all, who else are they going to sell it to? And let’s not forget that it’s corporate agribusiness that feeds America.
If you want unending supplies of two all beef patties to put on those sesame seed buns it won’t be Cliven Bundy providing the protein.
What are they going to do? Invade…I don’t know what’s out there…Port Jervis, NY (pop 8000)?
Yeah, this all sounds like right wing fantasy talk. Like the sort of people who live on the NY/PA border and believe Real America is uniformly armed, conservative military and police types who will all rise up in unison to counter the threat from pinko Liberals.
And red state Georgia is going to reopen their beaches. They’re just too stupid to keep alive. It’s exhausting. And I’ve said several times that this is a messy dissolution, not a managed secession.
The scenario keeps shifting. First it was the US simply collapsing and states going their own way, now it’s some fantasy of ‘quietly vote, and the US government will respect the state’s decision to leave and there will be no complications to that’. There’s not going to be this sort of ‘quietly vote to secede and everyone goes along with it’.
In your scenario, I would expect the US Army to prevent the state from its illegal secession - those loyal to the central government would resist along with the most powerful army in the world. Note that the Federal Governement owns about 50% of California’s land, including major military facilities, there’s a huge financial and practical incentive not to let a state just decide to leave on it’s own.
The precedent in ‘simple state secession’ is that the Federal government prevented states from leaving, so if you’re going to cite precedent that should be your expected outcome.
Food is needed to keep people alive. Importing food from afar when you’ve just taken actions that will crash your currency and provoke the hostility of the most powerful navy in the world seems to be a bit more difficult than you’re making out.