No, it’s just an attempt to inject some realism into this thread to counter the left wing absurd fantasies. No one (especially me) said any of the things that you listed above.
Are you just conceding that I’m right? You don’t seem to be countering anything that I’ve said, just saying ‘wow, look at this stupid shit someone else did’.
Please don’t put words in my mouth. I have been arguing in good faith with you so far. I would appreciate it if you would return the favor. If not, this shall be our last exchange.
The “scenario” to which I was replying was Kearsen1’s of intrastate conflict, not the one you are presenting here of an interstate or state/federal struggle. I am under no illusion that a state or several states seceding from the federal government would be accomplished in a calm, orderly fashion. History, both American and that of rest of the world, suggests that it would likely be a very violent and bloody process.
Since you (not I) brought it up, I agree that it is likely to expect those elements of the US military loyal to the federal government to forcibly resist any such movement to secede. However, I find your last two points to be specious. Ownership on paper is a legal fiction; Habsburg ownership of Kronländer was hardly an impediment to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. As to your second point, you are only considering the financial incentive of the federal government - presumably were the situation to deteriorate to the point where a state were seriously deliberating secession, they would have their own incentives for doing so, financial or otherwise. The feds can decide whether or not they wish to let a state go peaceably - what is not up to them is whether a state would attempt to do so in the first place.
Again, I never asserted a likelihood of “simple state secession”. My reference to precedent was vis-a-vis Kearsen1’s proposed coup d’état, which unlike secession, does not have an American precedent.
Similar arguments could have been made in 1810, 1915, and 1942. They were not found to be persuasive. I doubt they would be persuasive this time, either.
So Pantastic, all of your arguments as to why this won’t happen, not just now but in the future, are good ones, but are you saying that the US in it’s present form will be here forever? You can’t imagine any scenario for a break up, or are you just arguing that this current crisis will not be what causes it? I don’t think anyone is saying it going to happen now. Only that it could and only in the worst case scenario.
I went back and read my OP, and this thread has gotten away from it a bit and into discussions about what might happen over time, but re the OP. When I brought up the scenario of NY/NJ etc having no new cases and neighboring states not having it under control, it didn’t mean those states would just have a few hundred cases but tens if not hundreds of thousands. I did not make that clear. I’m sure you’ve seen the projections that if we did nothing millions would die. That is not going to happen, there are now 8 states with no stay at home order. But it will happen as soon as those states get a few more cases.
I have literally made zero arguments in this thread about a breakup of the US being impossible, or whether this current crisis would cause it. “All of my arguments as to why this won’t happen” is a set of zero arguments. What I have argued consistently is that there is no way that you end up with the ‘Blue States’ splitting off from ‘Trumpistan’ and becoming prosperous nations filled with doctors, lawyers, and professionals while ‘Trumpistan’ rots away quietly. The whole absurd fantasy that ‘blue states’ can just walk away from ‘red states’ is just based on myth and a distinct lack of critical thinking.
I quoted you and responded directly to words that you wrote. If responding to your own words is ‘putting words in your mouth’, you should probably work on that.
Again, I responded directly to what you wrote about states seceding. You appear to have some specific scenario in mind that doesn’t match what you say, then criticize me for responding to what you say instead of what’s in your head.
Ownership of military bases that have armed troops on them, and ownership of land that someone is trying to make have very real issues. The consequences of a state treating a US military base as a ‘legal fiction’ were demonstrated when South Carolina fired on Fort Sumpter at the start of the US Civil War.
I have no idea what specific historical events you’re referring to, and am not going to play the stupid game where I try to guess what you’re even talking about, then you berate me for guessing wrong. If you’re making an argument, actually make it, especially if you’re going to claim to be arguing in good faith. None of your examples seem relevant anyway, as I’m not aware of a relevant event in any of those years - there’s no incidence of a subunit of a nation seceeding, then trying to use the main nation’s fiat currency to buy food. If your 1915 and 1942 examples involve Germany, for example, there was no secession and virtually all of their foreign trade was backed by precious metals, not the Mark.
Governor Newsom announces that California is now a nation-state.
Your cite is an opinion piece. I see no formal declaration of independence. Too bad; I’d like to quit subsidizing retarded red states with my hard-earned tax money.
My question wasn’t stated very well. Of course you don’t believe it could never happen. And if anyone said it would be a clean break, I missed that. The link above about Newsom calling California a nation-state, well, California is not voting to secede in the near future, but that idea may become popular over time. It might happen in New York.
Got into a discussion with my liberal friend Karen (I am sure a lot of her neighbors think of her as a “Karen”) who has recently retired and moved to Texas from NYC. I was responding to Trump’s LIBERATE tweeets and said this - I wish those states could be liberated, along with the entire Northeast and the West Coast, from the red states that are bringing this country down. I wish we could have a Brexit in this country.
Her first response was like some of the ones in my I Pit the South post - I am so sick of this “people in red states get what they deserve” along with “Texas should secede … good riddance !” There are plenty of non-Republicans, including people of color, LGBTQ, and others who didn’t ask for this and don’t deserve to be written off by those who are fortunate enough to hold a majority in some other state.
I said to her what I said in that thread, of course not all people in the south are bad people. There are good people on one side. And I did not say the non-Republicans “get what they deserve.”
She eventually posted what follows, from a friend of her’s on FB.
An apocalyptic vision from north of the border:
The Imminent Breakup of the United States of America
It will only take one more election cycle. If Donald Trump loses the popular vote but, against all odds, ekes out a win through the Electoral College, the residents of blue states will have had enough. Enough of winning the popular vote and losing the election. Enough of gerrymandering, voter suppression, corruption and anti government governments. Enough of a minority dictating to the majority because the antiquated structure of the Senate makes it almost impossible for Democrats to gain control. They will have had enough of small government rhetoric and trickle down economics that just means tax cuts for the rich. They will have had enough of their money supporting red states who then vote for candidates the residents of blue states despise. They will have had enough of Citizens United allowing the rich to buy the government, the Koch’s organization spending hundreds of millions to elect Republican candidates to then deliver the legislation that favors them. Enough of the Freedom Caucus, the drowning the government in a bathtub, and tax cut after tax cut for the wealthy. They will have had enough of the infrastructure decaying and falling apart because fixing it might encourage big government. They will have had more school shootings than they can bear because the NRA and their Republican puppets will stop at nothing to obstruct gun control. And they will have seen enough people die because they couldn’t afford health insurance. They will have had enough of the faux libertarian bullshit being spouted by politicians and talking heads on Fox News. Enough of the disregard for expertise, for education, for empathy for others. Enough of the racism, the rollbacks of regulations protecting the environment and protecting people. Enough of the Climate Denial. Enough of conspiracy theories and the blaring voices on resentment radio. They will want their children to go to school and be safe - a good public school, because America once had good public schools. They will have had enough of spending trillions of dollars on a massive military when people die for lack of healthcare. They will have had enough of the country that the Republican party has wrought since Reagan began his attack on government. A claim the right has been making for years will finally come true - liberals will hate America. Not the America once envisioned and brought to life by generations that came before, but the America that Republican governments and Fox News have created. An America that is no longer a modern democratic state, but a strange outlier. A wealthy nation that’s government serves the wishes of an ultra wealthy upper class, like some third world nations.
When the residents of blue states finally realize that they will never have an America that they can love and believe in and be proud of - an America that represents their values - they will begin to face the inevitable. They will grieve, they will take a long deep breath, and they will begin the process of separating from the rest of America. Scholars of the constitution will begin desperately to argue that there is no process by which states can separate and point to the Civil War, but there was no process by which the Thirteen Colonies could leave the British Empire, either. There will be no war this time. There will be referendums on the question of separating from America and, with great sadness but even greater resolve, the blue state residents will vote to leave. Yes, there will be a constitutional crisis, threats to arrest governors and state legislators, and threats to send in the National Guard, but if people in the blue states simply refuse to pay their federal taxes, and instead pay that money into state coffers. If they fill the streets in peaceful protest at any attempt to use the National Guard or the military, if they stand by their decision and refuse to acknowledge the federal government’s power over them, the feds will be forced to come to the table and recognize what has, in fact, occurred - the blue states have left to create a country where their people can feel at home. A country that reflects who they are and what they believe. Whether the blue states will then form a single country or more than one, is yet to be seen, but one thing is abundantly clear - the residents of blue states will not put up with having their country run by a minority whose values are in open opposition to their own. They will have had enough, and the great experiment called the United States of America will have come to an end. Out of it will come new nations - the “old” America where conservatives can finally realize their libertarian dream, and a new nation or nations that can become functioning, modern states. The world will mourn but understand; there could be no reconciliation between the two national visions. The inevitable end had finally been accepted.
Now, the primary argument against this happening that I have seen is that there are many Reds (I still find it so ironic that red is the color of the Republican party) in blue states. And yes there are but they are a minority, and every state and country that has ever existed has a minority. Brexit did not get 100% support. Nowhere near.
This theory has noting to do with COVID, she is saying the break-up will happen if Trump gets re-elected. Well, what happens if that doesn’t happen? I think what she writes will happen over a period of time. 5 years? 10? 20? And there are problems with this theory - " if people in the blue states simply refuse to pay their federal taxes, and instead pay that money into state coffers. If they fill the streets in peaceful protest at any attempt to use the National Guard or the military, if they stand by their decision and refuse to acknowledge the federal government’s power over them". Would that happen? I don’t know. If Trump is re-elected, with Biden getting 5 million more votes, people will protest. There were protests when Trump got elected. Went on for all of a couple of weeks.
One way that it secission will not happen is the elimination of the electoral college, but that takes a constitutional amendment. The other way is if the Democrats can get control of both houses of Congress, in this election and from now on. And maybe this crisis will cause a majority of people in the red states to realize that the federal goverment is not the Big Bad Wolf and that we need univeral health care and a lot of other things.
And here I am, the enternal pessimist, hoping good things will eventually come from this.
And I am going to add an ETA before I even post this. Re-reading this - *the residents of blue states will not put up with having their country run by a minority whose values are in open opposition to their own. They will have had enough, and the great experiment called the United States of America will have come to an end. Out of it will come new nations - the “old” America where conservatives can finally realize their libertarian dream, and a new nation or nations that can become functioning, modern states. *
Skeptical about this. I think it is just a “hippie dream”, as the great Neil Young once sang
California secession has come up before, e.g.:
Or, This thread started soon after The Catastrophe of 8 November 2016.
Maybe I have been reading too much history and historical fiction lately. On a kick reading about Russian history and the French revolution.
What the hell, off topic a bit but I can recommend a couple of books. Hillary Mantel, A Place of Greater Safety, about the French revolution. The only word is “Dickensian.” Great story, great prose.
1917 by Solschenizyn. Just recently translated into English, 600 pages about the 5 days of the revolution, and three more novels to come about that year.
The thing is, when it happens, it happens very quickly. No one sees it coming. Louis XVI didn’t, Nicolas II didn’t. King George the Third didn’t. Gorbachev didn’t.
Disclaimer - I’m not a communist. I think the Russian revolution, initially, was one of the greatest things in history, but it quickly went bad with Lenin, one of the worst monsters in history. And in France The Terror.
When the US breaks up, I hope it will be peaceful.
The problem is that it buys into the false premise that the country is “divided.”
The country is not really divided. That is a conceit which has been designed, fostered, and perpetuated by the Republican Party over the last three or four decades, in order to maintain what political power it has. The problem is not that there are “good” people and “bad” people, and that the “bad” people are winning. That’s not the problem, fundamentally, really.
The problem is that the nation has been hijacked by an extensive, pervasive bullshit spewing propaganda machine–created by the Republican Party–which has exploited the lack of critical thinking skills in a very large portion of the population, largely sustained by bullshit media. Trump just stepped in and exploited it to serve his own filthy, corrupt and infantile personal greed. The Republicans now have no choice but to stand by and let him have his way, because their own political existence has also been predicated upon the platform that Trump is exploiting.
It’s also a false premise that there is some kind of “forgotten white working class” that the left is ignoring. That’s total bullshit. If that were really the problem, then Bernie Sanders would be on the way to the presidency. The only reason Trump has gained power is that he’s exploiting the bullshit rhetoric that fuels this propaganda machine, putting on his dog-and-pony shows that appeal to people who have lost all power of critical thinking, thanks to bullshit reality TV.
Yes–white nationalism is totally mixed up with this, but it would never have gained purchase without the larger propaganda machine itself, which is designed to keep the larger Republican Party in power.
I agree with everything that you say except that the country is not divided. Yes it is and always has been. Always will be.
The US is not likely to disintegrate. But reactionary activists and frightened GOP butt-kissers know they can’t hold the country honestly. Free and fair elections are their doom. Thus the gerrymandering, voter suppression, court-stacking, and other tricks for a dying demographic to retain power a bit longer. Putin’s puppy is right - mail-in ballots and universal suffrage mean no GOPer will be elected again. Cheaters gonna cheat.
The political situation in America is grave and likely to get much graver. But I just don’t see break-up or full-scale Civil War as likely. The insane vs sane battle may seem to have the character of Hutu vs Tutsi in Rwanda, but the delineation is much less clear. Birth certificates do not show predictions for sanity or intelligence. A Have-nots fighting Haves model doesn’t fit either.
One can almost imagine insurrections like the California government seizing control of Federal offices located in the state, but it’s doubtful such actions would have much support. (I’ve heard that the FBI sends out teams to confiscate PPE purchased by California. Is it possible that Calif will start sending National Guardsmen to accompany such cargo?)
The way that the GOP swindles to win elections should be the very top news story, but many seem unaware of it. With the “activists” in Generations X, Y and Z more intent on rigging up charges against Biden and “the DNC” than on attacking the criminals running the country, I see little hope.
In another thread I recently linked to a must-read article. The young John Roberts (now Chief Justice) got his start helping the GOP cheat:
The Census Bureau will announce a new apportionment for Congress, probably in December. This Bureau reports to Trump and his crooks; and the pandemic will provide great opportunity for cheating. I think I’ll start a thread about that …
The vast majority are not materially divided. The life and interests of a Walmart worker, or a small business owner, or whatever, in Arkansas are no different than those of one in Los Angeles. They think that way only because they’ve been fed this narrative from the likes of Rush Limbaugh for decades. It’s a fiction.
When a President openly encourages the populace to rebel against orders a Governor issues and crowds show up to protest carrying guns, then I would say all bets are off. Anything could happen at that point. A tiny spark could set things off that could quickly snowball out of control.
Trump doesn’t say these things because he actually expects or wants them to rebel. He doesn’t really give a shit what they do about the epidemic, (though he knows he needs a good economy to get re-elected). He just says these things as part of his continual bullshit act-- a performance–which dupes them into supporting him, so he can get their vote.
It’s a TV show. And when people are “shocked” or object to it, it just becomes part of the show, furthering his purposes.
They’re also part of his base, and Chump is going to support them come hell or high water and fuck it if it directly contradicts his previous statements or actions.
Well, we all heard his response when he was asked about the protesters in Ohio. Effectively, he said, “They like me, so who cares what they do?”
For him, it doesn’t matter what else happens, as long as “they like me.” His previous statements and actions? He probably can’t even remember what they were.
For Trump, everything he does is about “They like me,” (and making personal profit). The policy itself is irrelevant. That’s why he’s all over the place, and fucking everything up when it comes to actually running things. It’s been like this for three years–nothing’s different now.