"Mike" Bloomberg Presidential campaign, 2020

[Velocity]

He did say that no matter what, he would use his billions of dollars and his campaign machine to help the eventual (D) candidate whoever it may be. So it may be in best Democratic interests for someone like Buttigieg or Klobuchar to be the standard-bearer and for Bloomberg to do what he does best, dispense money where it is needed.

[DSeid]

He won’t drop out after one poor debate. Biden had multiple poor debates and is still there! Klobuchar really has had only one good one. But, assuming he is in the next one next week, he either is much better prepared and does much better, or he withdraws after a subpar Super Tuesday.

His money facilitated getting him a chance to be heard. But it doesn’t assure people like what they hear.

[CarnalK]

I am rather prepared for his polling and Super Tuesday results to not be much affected by his debate performance. As I said in the debate thread, he mostly stayed on brand. I bet “He’s kind of an asshole but…” is something his campaign has extensively focus grouped. Lol.

[septimus]

I’ve given up deciding who’s electable, but fear the answer is “None of the above.” Anyway, Moscow Mitch will be calling the shots even if the D’s win the White House and 50 Senate seats in November – the Ds lack the gumption to override the filibuster rule.

I just read through this thread again and found MUCH to disagree with. I am NOT a Bloomy Brat, but the arguments against him are … [checks forum] unconvincing. Fortunately DSeid produced an excellent summary I’d have been proud to write, so I’ll just quote it. I’ve bold-faced key points, and underlined one that refutes a silliness upthread (that Bloomberg might be teaching the Putin-GOP axis new tricks).

@DSeid

Bloomberg’s pitch is severalfold -

His positions on the issues which are most important to many of us.

NOT selling disruptive change as the path forward. (Which many of us feel is unlikely to actually deliver anything, let alone anything good.)

A proven track record of delivering on goals set more often than not.

A path to beating Trump and to delivering the Senate with significantly better odds than many of us see any other candidate currently having.

And yes his executive skill set - excellence in which is in fact a very uncommon thing.
I am now to understand that to you not is not the amount of money Bloomberg is sppending, it is that “microtargeted propaganda” based on “information from data scientists who knew exactly who to target” is inherently evil.

Using a sophisticated team of data scientists, developers, and digital advertising experts to not only know who voters were, but how “exactly how it could turn you into the type of person it wanted you to be”, microtargeting specific scripted pitches to specific voters who might be most vulnerable/persuadable to that pitch … is … Trumpian and evil. Except, if you clicked the link, it was Team Obama that developed the approach to the degree that is was effective.

I know you are using the word “propaganda” as a scary word, in a negative sense, but all it really means is information in support of a cause. Team Obama was great at saturating the right places with the right propaganda. It worked in 2008 and the sophistication of the microtargetting process was raised in 2012. Eight years later it will need to be revised dynamically responding to how social media has changed, and using tools that may not have even existed in 2012. 2020’s battle will fought differently than 2102’s,

The R side will be using those tactics the best they can. The D side had better be able to do it better. Those “vulnerable” to the tactics (be it vote one way, the other, or more importantly perhaps, to vote, will more likely than not decide the election at all levels.

[Nicest_of_the_Damned]

@septimus

Anyway, Moscow Mitch will be calling the shots even if the D’s win the White House and 50 Senate seats in November…

Good point. Maybe Bloomberg should be pouring resources on Amy McGrath’s campaign if he really wants to help.

[carnivorousplant]

Is it now a hobby of the ridiculously rich to run for President?

[Thing_Fish]

@Happy_Lendervedder

Unless his poll numbers absolutely crater in California, North Carolina, Virginia, Texas and Michigan between now and March, I don’t see any way he’s dropping out after one bad debate, or even a rough second one. And yes, tonight was bad, especially the first half. But I imagine he still believes he is the strongest candidate to face Trump in the general. Unless polling numbers start showing him finishing in third or fourth place in the big states on Super Tuesday and March 10, he’ll continue on.

If Warren or Biden don’t do particularly well in NV and SC, they’re going to have a hard time continuing to raise money to compete in March. Same with Amy. As the field contracts, Mike will still have a shit-ton of money to compete. And honestly, I can’t imagine his debate performances actually getting worse from here on out, so as more states start to pay attention, and there are less candidates lobbing bombs at him, there’s a chance he is able to find his sea legs on the debate stage.

Or not. Who the fuck knows?

Uh, he’s already in third place in Texas and Michigan, and a very distant second in California. It’s pretty much the same picture in all of the Super Tuesday/March 10 States. The only States in that group he seems to have any shot at actually winning are Arkansas and Missouri. And those polls aren’t taking his debate performance last night into account. His rapid rise to around 15% in the polls has been impressive, but he hopes to win, he needs to do a lot better than he’s doing right now. I’m not seeing any reason to think he’s capable of that.

[Thing_Fish]

@DSeid

A path to beating Trump and to delivering the Senate with significantly better odds than many of us see any other candidate currently having.

Problem is, those darn general election polls keep showing him as having about the same chance of beating Trump as Bernie or Biden do (the others usually being a few percentage points behind). But maybe you’re expecting his numbers will get better based on his brilliant debate performance last night? I realize many folks on this board, especially when it comes to Bernie, regard polling data as less reliable than the results you see gazing into your navel, but just FYI…

[Happy_Lendervedder]

@Thing_Fish

Uh, he’s already in third place in Texas and Michigan, and a very distant second in California. It’s pretty much the same picture in all of the Super Tuesday/March 10 States. The only States in that group he seems to have any shot at actually winning are Arkansas and Missouri. And those polls aren’t taking his debate performance last night into account. His rapid rise to around 15% in the polls has been impressive, but he hopes to win, he needs to do a lot better than he’s doing right now. I’m not seeing any reason to think he’s capable of that.

Not according to 538. As of 4:19pm 2/20:

CA

1. Bernie 27.8%
2. Bloomberg 15.2 (I’ll give you that this is a distant second place)

NC

1. Bernie 21.9%
2. Bloomberg 19.7

Michigan

1. Bernie 27.6%
2. Biden 18.6
3. Bloomberg 18.0 (essentially tied with Biden here)

Texas

1. Bernie 24.2%
2. Biden 18.8
3. Bloomberg 18.0 (over the past two or three days, they’ve actually jockeyed between second and third)

Virginia

1. Bloomberg 22.4%
2. Bernie 22.4

I don’t think Bloomberg’s poll position is quite as dire in these larger early-March states as you currently claim. Will it stay that way? Time will tell. If he starts cratering in these states, then I’ll believe his campaign’s in trouble.

[Razncain]

@Velocity

He did say that no matter what, he would use his billions of dollars and his campaign machine to help the eventual (D) candidate whoever it may be.

I hope he honors that, but after last night, maybe he’ll revise that to any Democratic candidate except Warren.

[Sherrerd]

@Nicest_of_the_Damned

Good point. Maybe Bloomberg should be pouring resources on Amy McGrath’s campaign if he really wants to help.

I don’t think we should assume he isn’t. He’s been promoting her as a candidate for several years, now:

Amy McGrath Has a Bracing Message for America
This Democrat running for Congress in Kentucky thinks American government is worth fighting for.
By Francis Wilkinson
October 31, 2017
It’s easy to blame Donald Trump for much of what’s wrong in America. But give credit where it’s due. He’s pushing people like Amy McGrath into the political arena.

McGrath, 42, retired as a lieutenant colonel from the Marine Corps earlier this year, moved with her husband and three young children back to her native Kentucky, and promptly began running as a Democrat for the Sixth District congressional seat occupied by Republican Andy Barr.
…

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-10-31/amy-mcgrath-has-a-bracing-message-for-america

[Socsback]

@Thing_Fish

Problem is, those darn general election polls keep showing him as having about the same chance of beating Trump as Bernie or Biden do (the others usually being a few percentage points behind). But maybe you’re expecting his numbers will get better based on his brilliant debate performance last night? I realize many folks on this board, especially when it comes to Bernie, regard polling data as less reliable than the results you see gazing into your navel, but just FYI…

The polls have been miserably wrong in the primaries so far.

Bernie is polling better doing to name recognition (from running in 2016) more than anything else, I think. Biden has that going for him too, but he’s a disaster, and losing support to younger/better moderates.

[ITR_champion]

Another video from Bloomberg’s past surfaces.

[Thing_Fish]

@Socsback

The polls have been miserably wrong in the primaries so far.

Bernie is polling better doing to name recognition (from running in 2016) more than anything else, I think. Biden has that going for him too, but he’s a disaster, and losing support to younger/better moderates.

Uh, no they haven’t. Biden significantly underperformed his polls in Iowa, and Klobuchar overperformed in NH. Other than that the polls have been reasonably accurate. Also, it appears that Biden is actually losing support to Bloomberg, who is neither (significantly) younger nor better; neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar has picked up much support in the last few weeks.

[asahi]

@nearwildheaven

After seeing him get eviscerated at tonight’s debate, I don’t think he’ll be in the race much longer.

I think he has another shot to redeem himself in next week’s Carolina debates, but he will have to redeem himself. If there’s any upside to last night, he got a taste of all the different lines of attack that he faces from here on out - they unloaded all their arsenal on him.

I had wondered what the effects of just barely qualifying in time for the debate might have on Bloomberg. I suspected he might get roughed up a bit, but Warren really slapped him around good. I think he’ll be ready to fight next time - hope so for his sake.

But the real winner last night wasn’t Warren, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar; it was Sanders and Biden, but particularly Sanders. I don’t see how he loses Nevada. Biden might have saved his campaign in South Carolina. We shall see.

[asahi]

@ITR_champion

Another video from Bloomberg’s past surfaces.

Actually, I thought it was kinda funny.

[DSeid]

@septimus

… Fortunately DSeid produced an excellent summary I’d have been proud to write …

Thank you for the kind words.

@carnivorousplant

Is it now a hobby of the ridiculously rich to run for President?

It has always been the hobby of those with some power in this country to at least imagine themselves as president of the United, possibly the most powerful position in the world. That’s been true for governors and senators and others. Those with extreme wealth have some power and are among that group.

@Thing_Fish

Problem is, those darn general election polls keep showing him as having about the same chance of beating Trump as Bernie or Biden do (the others usually being a few percentage points behind). But maybe you’re expecting his numbers will get better based on his brilliant debate performance last night? I realize many folks on this board, especially when it comes to Bernie, regard polling data as less reliable than the results you see gazing into your navel, but just FYI…

While they do show that he is a few points ahead in most polls, I take the general election polls with many grains of salt for a while more yet. No question though that if his debate performance continues at that level his general election theory goes kaboom. Being unflappable as others shout is on brand but being flatfooted and ill-prepared is not.

@Happy_Lendervedder

… If he starts cratering in these states, then I’ll believe his campaign’s in trouble.

He needs to do better than not crater though. He needs to build support in time for Super Tuesday.

@asahi

I think he has another shot to redeem himself in next week’s Carolina debates, but he will have to redeem himself. If there’s any upside to last night, he got a taste of all the different lines of attack that he faces from here on out - they unloaded all their arsenal on him.

I had wondered what the effects of just barely qualifying in time for the debate might have on Bloomberg. I suspected he might get roughed up a bit, but Warren really slapped him around good. I think he’ll be ready to fight next time - hope so for his sake.
…

Aye.

IF he is as smart as he is advertised to be, then he is prepping hard, will learn much from that prep, and has this last week’s poor performance to learn from. Next week there will be many more likely paying attention and whose votes may be swayed by that night’s performances. It is also true that their firing off all of their arsenal makes those shots less effective in the next round. Ironically his poor performance last night may HELP him by lowering expectations of him next week … if he nails it next time.

Two poor debate performances though would prove just what Biden’s weak to mediocre debate performances proved: that the electability hypothesis just aint actually there; he don’t got it.

[Try2B_Comprehensive]

Team Bloomberg responds to poor debate performance, from here:

Howard Wolfson, one of Mr. Bloomberg’s closest advisers, on Thursday shouldered the blame for the outcome of the debate.

“I led the debate prep and I accept the responsibility for inadequately preparing him,” Mr. Wolfson said.

From the same article:

“So, how was your night last night?” Mr. Bloomberg joked to a crowd of hundreds in Salt Lake City on Thursday morning. He warned that the party “may be on the way to nominating someone who cannot win in November.”

“If we choose a candidate who appeals to a small base like Senator Sanders,” he concluded, “it will be a fatal error.”

Under Bloomberg’s normal conditions, such a forward-looking statement would be hedged with the following askerisk*:

Certain information set forth in this presentation contains “forward-looking information”, including “future oriented financial information” and “financial outlook”, under applicable securities laws (collectively referred to herein as forward-looking statements). Except for statements of historical fact, information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements and includes, but is not limited to, the (i) projected financial performance of the Company; (ii) completion of, and the use of proceeds from, the sale of the shares being offered hereunder; (iii) the expected development of the Company’s business, projects and joint ventures; (iv) execution of the Company’s vision and growth strategy, including with respect to future M&A activity and global growth; (v) sources and availability of third-party financing for the Company’s projects; (vi) completion of the Company’s projects that are currently underway, in development or otherwise under consideration; (vi) renewal of the Company’s current customer, supplier and other material agreements; and (vii) future liquidity, working capital, and capital requirements. Forward-looking statements are provided to allow potential investors the opportunity to understand management’s beliefs and opinions in respect of the future so that they may use such beliefs and opinions as one factor in evaluating an investment.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections of future performance or result expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.

Although forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon what management of the Company believes are reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by applicable securities laws. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

But now that he is running for office, I guess he feels it is acceptable to be full of crap. Alternatively, Bernie has not significantly changed his stripes in the past 50 or so years of his public life.

[septimus]

@Thing_Fish

Problem is, those darn general election polls keep showing him as having about the same chance of beating Trump as Bernie or Biden do (the others usually being a few percentage points behind). But maybe you’re expecting his numbers will get better based on his brilliant debate performance last night? I realize many folks on this board, especially when it comes to Bernie, regard polling data as less reliable than the results you see gazing into your navel, but just FYI…

IANAL but if Bloomberg is the nominee he’ll be subject to fewer restrictions on expensive self-advertising. That will give him an advantage (small? big?) not reflected in current polling data.

(But don’t consider me a Bloomy Brat. I’ve given up understanding this primary and no longer have an opinion on who is most electable.)

[Thing_Fish]

@septimus

IANAL but if Bloomberg is the nominee he’ll be subject to fewer restrictions on expensive self-advertising. That will give him an advantage (small? big?) not reflected in current polling data.

(But don’t consider me a Bloomy Brat. I’ve given up understanding this primary and no longer have an opinion on who is most electable.)

You’ve finally acheived satori!

One thing we absolutely don’t know, but are about to find out, is where the point of diminished returns on TV commercials is. I’ve definitely seen some folks complain of seeing way too many Bloomberg ads.