Mississippi election for U.S. Senator

[BrainGlutton]

Incumbent Thad Cochran (R) is running for a seventh term. His challengers are Travis Childers (D) and Chris McDaniel (R-Tea Party).

In Tuesday’s Republican primary, McDaniel beat Cochran 49.5% to 49% (margin of less than 600 votes), (probably) requiring a runoff, which will (or would) be June 24. The primary was an open one, but the runoff will be closed – only registered Pubs can vote in it. It will be the most important Tea Party victory so far this year if McDaniel wins.

From the POV of The Nation, there’s no political difference between them that matters, and Cochran is just as good a Tea Partier as McDaniel. Well, be that as it may. According to this analysis, the primary results send a Tea Party message to the GOP establishment: “Waiver an inch, and we can still beat you.” And by the same analysis, Cochran has other problems:

The other dynamic that’s been going on for some time, and is just now catching full media attention, is that Thad Cochran doesn’t appear to be up for the challenge. He’s a six-term incumbent who’s never had a primary like this, and it doesn’t appear like he knows what the hell he’s doing. He’s dodged debates, and reporters. He also hasn’t been campaigning much, relying instead on the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and other outside “establishment” groups, to do most of the ground-game work for him.

The best national dispatch on Cochran, so far, comes from the Atlantic’s Molly Ball. In it, Thad Cochran comes across, frankly, like a confused old man who doesn’t really want this or know what’s happening at any given time.

Well, Cochran is indeed 77 years old.

And according to this, the whole situation presents mainstream Pubs with a problem as to how strongly to back/fund Cochran.

The stakes were highest for the candidates, then for the future of the tea party, which failed earlier in the year to topple incumbents or other establishment favorites in Texas, Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina.

Already, the jockeying was underway in the closest race of the primary season.

The Club For Growth, a conservative group that aired television ads for McDaniel, urged Cochran to drop out. A second backer of the challenger, Freedom Works, taunted the party’s campaign committee, saying it should spend its time opposing Democrats rather than the leader in the primary balloting.

Cochran’s allies said they intended to prevail in the runoff. “We will expect a vigorous debate about the future of our country over the next three weeks and we will continue to fully support Thad Cochran,” the party’s campaign organization said in a statement. “We look forward to him emerging victorious in the runoff.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which spent $500,000 on television ads for Cochran, said it would help his cause during a runoff, but did not immediately specify how much it would spend.

But another group that had been helping the senator headed for the sidelines. “With the Chamber, the NRSC, and a local super PAC already backing Cochran, this is not our fight,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for Crossroads. The organization donated about $120,000 last month to Mississippi Conservatives, a group that waged a major televised ad campaign to boost Cochran.

Based on all of the above I think Childers might actually have a chance to beat Cochran, if Cochran gets the nomination. But could he beat McDaniel?

[ElvisL1ves]

Vote-counting hijinx?

Janis Lane, Rob Chambers, and Scott Brewster—the latter actually a high-ranking McDaniel staffer—were locked in the Hinds County Courthouse at an unknown point on election night, and were there until 3:45 in the morning:

McDaniel campaign spokesman Noel Fritsch issued a statement late Wednesday saying the campaign “sent people to the Hinds courthouse to obtain the outstanding numbers and observe the count.” The statement reiterated the people were allowed in by “uniformed personnel” and then being locked inside.
“Predictably, a close Cochran ally wants to make hay out of this. Sadly, the Cochran campaign wants to make this election about anything but issues. Mississippians deserve better than this sort of distraction politics,” Fritsch said in the statement.

Just making sure there are no voter confidence issues, right, fellas?

[Oakminster]

@BrainGlutton

Based on all of the above I think Childers might actually have a chance to beat Cochran, if Cochran gets the nomination. But could he beat McDaniel?

I see it the other way around. Childers has a much better chance of beating McDaniel than he does of beating Cochran. McDaniel is fucking insane, and Cochran supporters may well cross the aisle to vote against him. McDaniel voters will vote for Cochran over any Dem.

[BrainGlutton]

@Oakminster

McDaniel is fucking insane . . .

No doubt, but, you know, Mississippi.

[Oakminster]

withdrawn.

[OldGuy]

@BrainGlutton

The primary was an open one, but the runoff will be closed – only registered Pubs can vote in it.

What is the reason for this?
In Mississippi primaries do you get both a Republican and Democratic ballot then vote one and toss the other? So now since there are no Democratic runoffs, only Republicans can vote?

[Oakminster]

@BrainGlutton

The primary was an open one, but the runoff will be closed – only registered Pubs can vote in it.

This is wrong. Mississippi voters do not register as affiliated with any party. They just register to vote. At the precincts during primary elections, there’s one table for the Dems, and another for the GOP. Voters go to the table for their party of choice, sign the roll, show ID, and get issued a ballot for that party’s primary only.

As I understand it, for the runoff, anyone that voted in the Dem primary is not allowed to vote, but any other voters–whether they voted in the GOP primary or did not vote at all–can vote in the runoff.

[PastTense]

I was surprised the break-in didn’t have any impact (McDaniel supporters took photos of Cochran’s wife in a nursing home–she has dementia).

I am thinking of traditional Southern gentility.

[BrainGlutton]

@PastTense

I was surprised the break-in didn’t have any impact (McDaniel supporters took photos of Cochran’s wife in a nursing home–she has dementia).

I am thinking of traditional Southern gentility.

That’s more of a Tidewater thing.

[ElvisL1ves]

@Oakminster

As I understand it, for the runoff, anyone that voted in the Dem primary is not allowed to vote, but any other voters–whether they voted in the GOP primary or did not vote at all–can vote in the runoff.

I understand absentee voters have already voted, in effect - they rank choices on their ballots, and are presumed to have voted for the top choice of the remaining two. That allows a very short turnaround time. Can’t be true, makes too much sense.

[BrainGlutton]

Three Salon articles. Note the third especially; there’s a lot riding on this one.

[Oakminster]

The NAACP is responding to the Tea Party’s poll watchers with poll watchers of its own.

[ElvisL1ves]

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

[Really_Not_All_That_Bright]

@Oakminster

I see it the other way around. Childers has a much better chance of beating McDaniel than he does of beating Cochran. McDaniel is fucking insane, and Cochran supporters may well cross the aisle to vote against him. McDaniel voters will vote for Cochran over any Dem.

Does Childers have a substantial chance of beating McDaniel? Or are we just talking about a 20% chance versus a 10% chance of beating Cochran?

[BobLibDem]

@Oakminster

I see it the other way around. Childers has a much better chance of beating McDaniel than he does of beating Cochran. McDaniel is fucking insane, and Cochran supporters may well cross the aisle to vote against him. McDaniel voters will vote for Cochran over any Dem.

Do you honestly believe the November election would be competetive if McDaniel is on the ballot? I bow to your knowledge of the state, but I find myself unable to believe a Dem would win any statewide office in Mississippi.

[BrainGlutton]

@BobLibDem

Do you honestly believe the November election would be competetive if McDaniel is on the ballot? I bow to your knowledge of the state, but I find myself unable to believe a Dem would win any statewide office in Mississippi.

Mississippi is 37% black, and McDaniel on the ballot is the surest way to assure their high turnout to vote against him.

[Oakminster]

@Really_Not_All_That_Bright

Does Childers have a substantial chance of beating McDaniel? Or are we just talking about a 20% chance versus a 10% chance of beating Cochran?

I think so. From what I hear, the Childers camp really wants to run against McDaniel instead of Cochran. The thinking is that McDaniel has pretty much alienated the mainstream GOP power players in the state. Some of them are rumored to be upset enough to support Childers in the general election. I understand that local money will be available to Childers that might otherwise have gone to Cochran…

[BobLibDem]

@BrainGlutton

Mississippi is 37% black, and McDaniel on the ballot is the surest way to assure their high turnout to vote against him.

Assuming everybody votes, then even with 100% of the black vote you’d still need a little under 23% of the white vote to win. Can a Democrat get that high of a white vote in Mississippi?

[BrainGlutton]

@BobLibDem

Assuming everybody votes, then even with 100% of the black vote you’d still need a little under 23% of the white vote to win. Can a Democrat get that high of a white vote in Mississippi?

I’m thinking he might if a batshit TP upstart like McDaniel is the alternative.

[Oakminster]

@BobLibDem

Assuming everybody votes, then even with 100% of the black vote you’d still need a little under 23% of the white vote to win. Can a Democrat get that high of a white vote in Mississippi?

Well…this isn’t really what most people would expect in a traditional Dem v GOP race. One candidate is a conservative who opposed Obamacare, is pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-Jesus. The other candidate will be the GOP nominee.

The other thing is that everybody is not going to vote. Turnout for the first primary was pretty low, and early reports indicate similar turnout for this runoff. I really don’t think McDaniel is going to get much support at all from former Cochran voters. This has been an incredibly bitter, nasty campaign. I don’t see much potential for fence-mending in the GOP ranks. If Cochran voters stay home in disgust or vote for Childers in the general, McDaniel is in trouble. I don’t think there are enough Tea Partiers to win the general election by themselves…