Mississippi or SEC sports dopers, a Memphis, Southern Miss query

Factual Questions
1

I am from Memphis. I also lived in Jackson, Mississippi. Due to the Big East defections to the ACC, the Big east took tow teams to the Big East (Louisville and Cincinnati). Confernece USA had to take a couple of teams from the Mountain West (SMU, Houston others?) and on down the line.

My question, what would the chances of Southern Mississippi and the University of Memphis in the SEC. Southern Miss and memphis can compete in the top two sports (football and basketball), and I bet that Memphis could compete for an SEC west title if given an opportunity. Plus both schools are competitive in football now. I am not saying that either team could win the SEC in football, but they both can play several teams competitively in both sports. Memphis and Ole Miss (plus Tennessee) have been rivals from way back when. Southern Miss and LSU would be natural rivals. Not to mention Southern vs. Ole Miss or Mississippi State.

The only downside I see is that there would be three Mississippi SEC teams competing for the same talent, which I believe has been part of Ole Miss (my school) Mississippi State and Southern killing each other for local talent plus lack of pull from outside. Tennessee has become competitive because there the Big Orange in Knoxville is the best and has no equal.

But I still think that Southern Miss and memphis should join the SEC. What do you think?

ET

2

There’s no upside for the SEC in this. What do Memphis and USM bring to the table for their part? Increased national television opportunities? Sell-out crowds when they come to play? Increased image and prestige? Nope, none of the above.

Adding two teams would mean that the financial pie would have to be split 14 ways instead of 12. I don’t see the two schools you mention bringing in as much revenue as they would take out.

Joining the SEC would help Memphis and USM, but unless some benefit could be shown to the 12 current members, there’s no way they’d vote to expand. Maybe if Notre Dame and FSU begged admittance, they’d talk.

12 teams makes for a good split in the divisions, and workable football and basketball schedules.
I don’t think the SEC is looking to expand, just for the sake of adding numbers.

3

I agree with the sentiment that there is no chance since these teams bring less money to the table than they take away by taking a share of the conference split of money.

You would have a decent shot if a vacancy appeared however. Here is a longshot way that might happen.

Knowledgeable sources tell me ND will eventually be forced to join a conference for economic reasons. 50/50 BigTen or ACC. The ACC would expand to 14 to take ND. ND would be no. 13 and they would have to find no. 14. KY would be an attractive no. 14. Taking KY would leave a vacancy for SMiss or Memphis to fill. OTOH, other teams might be more attractive to the SEC.

4

There might be an SEC vacancy if Vanderbilt pulls out. They’ve already downgraded the athletic department by eliminating the AD position, and they don’t bring anything to the other members except easy wins. But if they’re gone, then keeping the playoff-game money means a new member.

5

Wouldn’t happen. State and Old Miss don’t want to acknoledge the existance of USM, much less play them. They’d beat them in off years, probably. :smiley:

As for other reasons? Cash, recruiting and general problems. I mean, Memphis is darn close to Starkville and Oxford, which would bleed the area dry of talent.

6

What economic hardships could ND possibly be under for not having their football team in a conference? Their NBC contract is almost up, but they’ll get another one after that (probably ESPN, if not NBC). It won’t be as lucrative, but it’ll be a whole lot more money than any sort of revenue split with a conference. Not to mention getting the whole pot of cash if they ever get back to a BCS game (or just a bowl).

7

Well, that’s it. ND is no longer assured of a top bowl game every year - after too many years of ordinariness, they’re just another big-time football school. Only the top bowls are really profitable for the schools.

With a conference tie-in (more likely the Big Ten than the ACC), they’d have a guaranteed revenue stream. Note, too, that their next network deal will probably be much smaller than their NBC one. With their 1/12 share of the Big Ten’s 7 or 8 bowl slots every year, and their share of the NCAA’s TV contracts, they could be at least as well off.

8

I guess it all depends what they get in their next TV contract. My source does not believe it will be sufficient for them to remain independent.

As for bowl games, unless you go to a top 4 bowl the cost of attending usually eats up the prize money. A bowl like the Citrus bowl is break even for many schools, and bowls below that sometimes cost a school money. This obviously is a generalization but in practice schools transport huge nos of players, admin/faculty, band, etc so they make only a little bit of money on the bowl (other than the top 4 bowls). For ND to get to a BCS bowl, they really have to be ranked high because they are not in a conference wiht an automatic bid. As favored as ND often is, I doubt they make it in a year with 2 losses, as did the ACC and Big East Champs this year. Maybe.

FYI, the ACC was the most lucrative conference on a pay-out per school basis due to their rich basketball TV contract and only 9 mouths to feed.

As for Vanderbilt, I doubt they pull out. Why would they? Maybe if the scandals in the SEC got worse, but the NCAA has had no interest in pursuing these.

Also, Vandy has had a pretty good basketball team, excellent womens baskball, and good baseball team. I think their other sports like tennis, etc are competitive. From time to time, their football team has showed some life, although they last had a winning season in 1982. Frankly, Vanderbilt is a better fit in the ACC but I think a Kentucky, Louisville, or Syracuse are more likely to be the 14th team.

I would estimate there is an 80% chance ND joins a conf. in the next decade, 50% its the ACC, and 25% chance they take an SEC team creating a vacancy. Then, there is about a 10% chance the SEC takes Memphis or SMiss. That works out to 1 in a 100.

9

They already have a conference tie-in with the Big East. That’s how they were going to the Citrus Bowl what, 3 years in a row? And with ND’s upcoming $1.7 billion capital campaign coming up, a guaranteed revenue stream isn’t exactly a top priority it would seem.

Sorry if I don’t believe you about your “source.” As an alum with many contacts inside the university, including several family members, rumors of joining a conference are nowhere near being even half-baked. But a “my source is better than your source” argument would be fruitless, unless one of sources is Kevin White. Sadly my Bacon number for Kevin White is a lofty 3.

I believe ND needs to be ranked at least #9 in the BCS to be eligible for an auto bid. That’s not too unreasonable.

I think that’s a fair estimate. In a decade, we’ll most likely have a new BCS system, which could very well make it nigh-impossible for independents to make a run for the money.

10

Kentucky or Vanderbilt would be likely to leave the SEC and go to the the ACC: WHY? To what advantage? Because the ACC needs them to have an even number of teams? snort

The money these teams get and tradition they have in the SEC would far out weigh any any reason they might have to join the ACC, particularly after ACC money is split more than the current nine ways.

11

Both Ole Miss and State quit playing Southern several years ago. IIRC they wanted to be playing more SEC games and more games “at home” rather than at Memorial stadium at Jackson, the usual site for State-Ole Miss-USM matchups. If there had been enough outcry, fan interest, and money to be made, I’m sure they’d still be playing one another.

I have always viewed the 3-Division 1-A school situation in Mississippi as nothing short of criminal behavior on someone’s part. If there was just one school, and one, extremely good football team with more homegrown talent, I guarantee you the balance of power in the SEC would be markedly different. It’s so hard to live here in Knoxville and see what Tennessee can do by concentrating their resources when Mississippi, a smaller, poorer state to begin with, is split 3 ways even before you count non-division-1A schools.

It would almost be worth it to have, say, “MSU, Oxford Campus” or even “UM, Starkville campus” just to have a decent football team with which to whip some of these other schools once in a while rather than once a generation. Now we have to wait for Cooper’s, Peyton’s, and Eli’s kids to become players.

It truly, truly, * truly* sucks and bites.
miatachris
raised in Jackson
Ole Miss '95
PLAY DIXIE! PLAY DIXIE!

12

My source is someone who negotiated the expansion of the ACC. I only mention it because its a different view from the conventional wisdom that ND will not join a conference. This person has access to the financials and is negotiation his own TV contract and thinks the amounts the networks will offer ND make it likely they will join a conference. As for ND’s $1.7B capital campaign - great - but I doubt ND would use its endowment to subsidize its athletic program if it could make more money by joining a conference. It could, but if my guess is correct that it will make financial sence for ND to join a conference, why fight it?

ND does have a pretty sweet deal with the bowls. However, as an independend, they must be ranked at least 9th to go to a BCS game. In a conference, they get an automatic trip as champ and have no such limitation for an at large trip. Here are ND’s bowls in the last few years. Their appearance at BCS bowls has declined since the rule requiring a top 9 ranking has gone into effect. In contrast, conf. champs like Miami and FSU are there every year!

01-02-1989
34
West Virginia
21
Fiesta Bowl

W
01-01-1990
21
Colorado
6
Orange Bowl

L
01-01-1991
9
Colorado
10
Orange Bowl

W
01-01-1992
39
Florida
28
Sugar Bowl

W
01-01-1993
28
Texas A&M
3
Cotton Bowl

W
01-01-1994
24
Texas A&M
21
Cotton Bowl

L
01-02-1995
24
Colorado
41
Fiesta Bowl

L
01-01-1996
26
Florida St.
31
Orange Bowl

L
12-28-1997
9
Louisiana St.
27
Independence Bowl

L
01-01-1999
28
Georgia Tech
35
Gator Bowl

L
01-01-2001
9
Oregon St.
41
Fiesta Bowl

L
01-01-2003
6
North Carolina St.
28
Gator Bowl

ND is also missing out on the $$$ from a conference championship game.

ND is unique in being able to resist these financial pressures. Whether they choose to remains to be seen.

As for Vanderbilt and KY, I don’t think either has had great success in the SEC. KY has in basketball, but I don’t think that “tradition” would keep them from joining the ACC. As for Vanderbilt, they don’t even have an AD so I think their decision would turn not on sports tradition but on other factors such as integrity and academics. Vanderbilt has more in common with Duke, Virginia, NC, and ND than Arkansas, Alabama, etc. I don’t think this is enough to make them want to leave, but I think you overstate the “tradition” that would keep them in the SEC.

13

Notre Dame renews NBC contract

$9 million a year for the next 5 years, which is about the same they’ve been getting from the start. Interesting. 5 years is a pretty good buffer through the next BCS scenario.