Cervelli is already a very good catcher that can only get better. The staff really likes him. He is a younger, faster and better hitter then Jose Molina. He figures to be the backup for years to come or if neither prospect works out and he hits well enough the Yankees catcher.
He will not be worse and that is really the point. I think he will end up the next starter after Posada with Cervelli as the backup.
Victor Martinez worked for many years to become an adequate defensive catcher. He isn’t fantastic and may still need to be moved off the position as he ages, but to think everyone can be that good is folly. Montero is nowhere near as good defensively right now. Now he is young enough that perhaps he will eventually reach competence defensively, but that won’t be this year and it won’t be by the time Posada’s contract expires. It is also possible, likely even, that he ends up being a player like Delgado where you wonder why anyone ever thought it was a good idea. His bat on the other hand is just about ready. So the question is do you try to make him a catcher over the next few years and waste his bat in the minors, or accept that you are going to have a young dh who can rake.
Can I ask what you base the defensive rating of Montero on?
It differs from what I have heard. I understand he does not project to be great behind the plate, but many believe this 20 year old has made very good progress in 2 years and might be adequate and yes, better than Victor.
Baseball Prospectus
"Montero can flat-out hit and might be ready to hit in the majors now if it weren’t for his lack of position. Teams are phobic about grooming young players as designated hitters, but every once in a while, the farm system produces a special hitter, an Edgar Martinez or Frank Thomas, whose natural, God-given position is DH. Like those fellows, Montero could be propped up in the field from time to time, particularly at first base, but he’s clearly not a catcher, at least not right now.
Montero is only 20 and could figure out how to catch eventually, perhaps at the same age at which a college-trained catcher might be drafted, but his bat is propelling him forward to fast for his glove to keep up. Obviously, Montero would be more valuable if he could stay behind the plate; the same was true of Carlos Delgado, Paul Konerko and even Jimmie Fox…If he does hit (at the Triple-A level) there is no point in holding him back waiting for some revelation of defensive ability that might never come…"
“He’s almost assuredly not a catcher in the end, and it’s almost assuredly not going to matter. In terms of pure hitting ability, no prospect matches Montero, whose ability to put up big numbers in horrible hitting environments at levels a player at his age has not right to be in has everyone projecting him as a monster force in the big leagues.”
“Montero remains a well below-average catcher, despite his improvements. His big, thick build doesn’t provide much agility defensively, and he’s only expected to get bigger, which will almost assuredly mean a move to first base. His approach is good for his age, but it could use some improvements, as he swings at a lot of bad pitches, making up for it by often crushing them.”
Keith Law
“Montero is really a “CINO” (catcher in name only), as few people outside the Yankees organization believe the giant player — listed at 6-4, 225 pounds, although he’s bigger than that now — can stay behind the plate, even with the improvement in his throwing in 2009. Montero’s ticket to the big leagues is his bat, and his hitting style is similar to that of another big guy who spent a lot of his career at DH: Frank Thomas. Montero transfers his weight early and hits off his front foot, but he generates tremendous bat speed and is so strong that he hits and hits for power regardless of the fact that he’s on that lead foot. Behind the plate, he has arm strength and has improved his accuracy, but he’s so big that he doesn’t move quickly enough to catch in the big leagues, and his receiving has never been a strength. His bat is so far ahead of his glove anyway that it might end up making sense for the Yankees to employ him as a major league DH soon rather than wait for him to develop as a catcher, knowing that there’s a good chance the latter won’t happen.”
Baseball America
“Montero isn’t a pure hitter, but he’s as good offensively as any prospect; he’s unlikely to catch everyday and already has taken grounders at first base this spring.”
John Sickels
"He murdered the Florida State League to the tune of a +45 percent OPS, and he remained extremely successful in the Eastern League at +26 OPS. For now, Montero will remain behind the plate, waiting for a DH spot to open up in New York. "
Well that was a good and thorough answer. It sure does not look good for him replacing Posada. For what it is worth and as I said, I heard he has a good chance at a call up as soon as July primarily as DH. (This is probably based upon the assumption that Nick Johnson will get hurt yet again 
)
Hell, Nick Johnson was already scratched from the lineup today. Thinking he will hold out to July is optimistic 
As an aside with my nice to watch some Mets’ baseball today. At least we will eventually have a good first baseman.
I really liked the way he calls the game, handles the pitching staff. It seemed to me that when he was called up in late May(?) last year, the pitching improved immediately.
Thanks for the comparisons Hawkeyeop!
A few thoughts about BA’s Top 100 Prospects:
Wait, there’s another Mike Stanton?
The Jays have the #25 prospect (Kyle Drabek) and #27 (Brett Wallace) but in context, Wallace is clearly more valuable to the organization and will probably be in the majors this year, whereas Drabek may have to wait. The Jays have many, many pitchers auditioning for a role they have to sort through, and are in no rush to start the clock on Drabek’s service time. Wallace, however, is desperately needed on a team that is very short of offense and needs a new first baseman.
2B. Wallace is rated just two slots ahead of the guy he was traded straight up for, Michael Taylor. I’d agree they’re about the same and the trade made sense for both teams in terms of replacing an infielder with an outfielder/vice versa.
Holy CRAP, the Rays have a lot of prospects. For a team that’s already pretty good, this is an amazing crop. They have a chance to be the dominant team of this decade.
Shelby Miller at #50 is way too high on the list. MAybe after he proves something in the minors but right now he’s a kid with a fastball.
Jesus, more Rays. How did they do this?
…And only one more Jay on the list, d’Arnaud.
So what does it say about the Jays farm system that they have only three names on the list and they’re the three guys they had to trade Roy Halladay to get? Jaysus. Not one homegrown prospect on the list.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/03/03/gm.rankings/index.html
Someone actually ranked the 30 gms. A pretty impossible task, but interesting nonetheless. The top three are from the AL East with Friedman topping the list. Top Nl one is Beinfest from Florida. Minaya is 26th ahead of Colletti, Sabean, Wade and Moore.
Still think they are being kind to Minaya, but come to think of it, I forgot about Wade. He really might be the worst at his job. Maybe we can declare it a 3 way tie, Wade, Moore and Minaya?
Let’s be fair, under Minaya player development has been very bad for the Mets, worse than Dodger or Giants who he also out spends. I think Colletti & Sabean have done better jobs than the other 3.
Judging player development is tough. Sure the Dodgers have a ton of young talent, but almost universally it was drafted before Colletti ever donned the Dodger blue. So I don’t know exactly how much credit to give him for not totally screwing up the plethora of talent already on hand. He has been quick to trade top prospects for mediocre players though (Edwin Jackson to Tampa, Carlos Santana the top “catching” prospect in baseball to Cleveland, Josh Bell to Balt etc…) and slow to trust young players as evidenced by the original Juan Pierre signing. I suppose you can give him a little credit for them turning into productive big leaguers, but there have been just as many disappointments as successes.
Sabean has more of a track record to go by, but it isn’t a good one. Kung Fu Panda looks like a star, but the last above average hitter developed by SF before him was perhaps Rich Aurilla. If they weren’t so devoid of young hitters, they wouldn’t have had to overpay for mediocre talents like Derosa, Sanchez, and Huff. He had possibly the best hitter of all time and never won a world series in large part to the lack of any young talent around him. Sabaen has also thrown away aa lo of top draft picks over the years by signing type A free agents, often before the arbitration decision deadline date.
Minaya, Wade, and Moore on the other hand inherited barren systems. They have all been restocked somewhat, but it generally too early to tell how things will turn out. There is a good chance all 3 will be gone in fact, before we really have a good read on it.
The Joe Nathan injurymight make a huge difference in the AL Central. If he needs surgery, it is extremely bad news for the Twins.
Some sad news out of L.A., as former Dodger (and Expo) Willie Davis was found dead in his apartment at the age of 69.
Huge break for the Tigers. Joe Nathan completely owns Tiger hitting.
Nomar Garciaparra signed a one-day contract with Boston so he could retire as a Red Sox player. I admit not quite understanding the strength of that emotion - he didn’t show it much when he was here.
I heard something on the radio today that had be wondering.
Today, when healthy, who is the best active lead-off hitter in baseball?
If you would, please say who and maybe why before you look at the spoiler.
On the radio Jose Reyes was said
Well, knowing where you (and I) live, I’m guessing whoever you heard on the radio said one of two different players, but I won’t look at the spoiler before I answer.
If perfectly healthy, and I’m picking one guy for next year and next year only, it’s Ichiro followed closely by Jeter. If I’m picking one guy for the next several years, it’s Jose Reyes.
Picking the best leadoff hitter is a bit of a weird balancing act, since if he’s too good he’s probably not going to be leading off; on the Mets, David Wright would be a better leadoff hitter, but he’s also a better #3 or #4 hitter.
That’s the way I would go. Reyes is a terrible choice for best, even IF healthy (and that’s just a ridiculous requirement - he’s NEVER healthy). He steals a lot of bases, but he doesn’t have a very good success rate. He simply makes WAY too many outs to be the best. Ichiro and Jeter are far better.
Ichiro. There is no other acceptable answer.