We have 1 game left to play in the regular season, but it doesn’t matter for anybody. So we’re set. All series are best of 3 at the higher seed’s ballpark in the first round. 2nd round is played 2-2-1 starting at the higher seed’s ballpark.
American League
Seattle(5) @ Toronto(4)* - Winner plays Houston(1)
Tampa Bay(6) @ Cleveland(3) - Winner plays New York Yankees(2)
National League
San Diego(5) @ New York Mets(4) - Winner plays Los Angeles(1)
Philadelphia(6) @ St. Louis(3) - Winner plays Atlanta(2)
I very much hope not. Nothing against Dusty, but I have two big reasons I would like to see him fail. He has the Astros and I’m a Yankees fan and hope we at least meet the Dodgers this year.
Looking at the series, I don’t think you can make any serious case that the home team isn’t the favourite.
Jays-Mariners is close but the Blue Jays are generally a bit better, had the hardest 2022 schedule of any playoff team, and in a 3-game series their biggest weakness - the rotation past #3 - doesn’t matter. The Jays are not a good defensive team, so if they lose this it may be by fumbling it. Julio Rodriguez is back for the M’s, which they needed. He’s the best player on the team already.
The Rays did have a much tougher schedule than the Guardians, so you’d think I’d pick the Rays, but they have the most dramatic home-road split you can imagine - they were 35-45 on the road this year. They suck away from Tropicana Field and backed into the playoffs. Something about the team that should be called the Cleveland Spiders tells me they could go surprisingly far.
The Cardinals are surely WAY better than the Phlllies, right? Well… the Cardinals had the easiest schedule of any playoff team, so I’m not sure. I still give the Cards an edge here, but they are not an especially strong team, especially pitching-wise, and this is the likeliest upset. I don’t trust pitching staffs in the playoffs that lack big front end pitching. Depth means less in the postseason.
The Mets are just better than the Padres in almost every respect. I guess the Padres are a slightly better defensive team, but otherwise the Mets just look far, far better. Their front end pitching is vastly superior, and will be nicely rested. Won’t it be cool to have the trumpet song played when Edwin Diaz comes in? The place will go nuts.
The early betting lines certainly agree with you:
Cleveland is -130 vs. Tampa Bay at +110.
St. Louis is -110 , but so is Philadelphia!
Toronto is -150 vs. Seattle at +125.
New York is -200 vs. San Diego at +165.
More or less, but it’s important to remember that oddsmakers and line setters are NOT actually trying to predict the outcome of the contest - they’re trying to move money.
A bookmaker’s ideal is to not care about the game. Team A wins - bookie takes bets on Team B, pays them to the Team A bettors and keeps the vig. Reverse is true if Team B wins. What those odds say is that the oddsmakers think (and early betting is bearing it out or the line would move) that equal money will be bet on each team. So they take your $100 from a Phillies bet and pay it to the Cards bet and keep the extra $10 from the Phillies bet.
But isn’t that always the goal of the bookies? Have an equal amount of money bet on each team? That’s why the line moves…if more money is being bet on the favorite, then the line will be adjusted so as to entice bettors to bet on the underdog.
Sports books do try to “balance their action,” meaning they take an equal amount of money on both sides of a contest to guarantee a profit. It’s solid in theory and is usually the goal.
Yes, but they do and will take other factors into account - for example, supposedly Notre Dame lines used to get adjusted because there was a belief that more people bet for Notre Dame regardless of the odds than would normally be justified. So ND would get “pushed” in a certain direction even at the open, to help balance the books - that’s why I say that the odds are only attempting to be predictive of the money, not the outcome. But as with many crowd-sourced large data sets, the two values will generally converge absent external factors.
Ahhh…yes, I was looking at Game 1 lines. Interesting that PHI/STL is even on Game 1 and yet STL is even more favored than CLE in the series betting. It’s only a 3-game set.
This may be a stupid question, but why are there 3 NL East teams in the playoffs? Braves, Mets, Phillies? Isn’t it supposed to be the best 2 teams in each division?
As a Mariners fan, this is the only series I care about. I’d agree the Blue Jays are a better team. However, Seattle beat them more this season. In a three game series, anything can happen. Seattle seems to be gong into the post season a little hot. I’m cautiously optimistic.
