We are saying 28 is past prime for baseball players?
I think we’re saying 28 is past Arraez’s prime.
He had 19 fewer hits than in 2024. He still led the league in hits (was 3 behind Witt who led all of baseball in hits). He’s still doing what he does.
And that’s really not enough. Of his impressive amount of hits, only 42 of them were for extra bases. Witt had 73 extra base hits. That matters a lot.
You changing the question? I was answering whether he was past his prime. His numbers were slightly down from the year before but he still led the league in hits.
He’s really not though. In his two high-value seasons he got 173 and 203 hits, but he did it in around 600-620 plate appearances.
You’re right that last year he still got 181 hits, but it took him 675 PAs to do that. That’s a lot of extra outs.
Also in those years (2022-2023) he slugged .420 and .469. Last year he slugged .392.
He’s “doing what he does” in the sense that he’s still swinging a lot and making a lot of contact. But the success rate is going down, when he does make contact it’s for less power, and he still plays poor defense (and at a non-premium position).
I could be wrong and he might put up another 2+ WAR season, but I’d bet against it.
I’m not changing the question. Arraez has gone from making good-not-great contact to making below average contact over the last 3 years. Weak slap hits do a bad job of advancing runners, including the batter-runner. His defense has gotten noticeably worse, going from just bad to truly terrible. If you see a career that isn’t on the downswing, “he got a lot of hits” isn’t an adequate defense of it.
Three-team trade:
Mariners get IF Brendan Donovan from St. Louis.
St. Louis gets Seattle right-handed starter Jurrangelo Cijntje, and outfield prospect Tai Peete. They also acquire Colton Ledbetter from Tampa Bay and two competitive balance round B picks, one from Seattle, one from Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay gets third baseman Ben Williamson from Seattle.
The full-scale demolition of the Cardinals continues. I suppose it has to happen, but damn this team is going to be dire this season. So far they have lost: Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras. In return they got 9 prospects and two extra draft picks.
Hopefully the new management knows how to build a team from the ground up.
I will say they have received some wonderfully-named players in return: Richard Fitts, Yhoiker Fajardo, Jurrangelo Cijntje. And they do now have 6 of the MLB top-100 prospects, so maybe I’ll have to start watching minor-league games instead this season.
In somewhat happier Cardinals news, it sounds like they reached a deal with MLB.tv to stream all the locally-produced games as a subscription package without a local blackout. So that’s step in the right direction for those of us that don’t want a cable package and hated the FanDuel partnership.
It looks like a regular buffet table. I’ll have one Jojo Romero, please.
An interesting fact about Cijntje - he’s actually a switch pitcher. But apparently the Mariners didn’t think he could be effective as a LH. It will be interesting to see if the Cards let him try against lefties with big splits.
I’ve still got a soft spot in my heart for StL. But I’m not soft in the head.
This whole thing looks like a smash and grab by ownership. WTF?
They have a very strong farm system (I believe it was ranked #1 by some MLB site recently), and now they have 6 picks of the first 86 picks in the 26 draft. I strongly dislike the Cards, but that’s how you rebuild a franchise.
They just sort of fell into a rut. They big moves for Arenado and Goldschmidt never really panned out, and then the attempts to patch things up with guys like Contreras (who they immediately moved to 1B which really hurt his value) and Gray weren’t enough to remain competitive.
Then when the team got bad the fans stopped coming (as happens in most markets). I think the sustained success led them to believe that the fans would keep coming no matter what - ownership seemed surprised when that didn’t happen.
They brought in Chaim Bloom with the hopes that he can recreate some of that Rays magic - be competitive without being a top-payroll team. What scares me is that he wasn’t very successful with the Red Sox, letting big-name players (Betts in particular) go while slashing payroll after the Dombrowski era.
I suppose if ownership thinks a lockout and then some sort of competitive balance structure is likely (salary cap or no) then having a stocked farm system and an executive with a history of relative success with lower-end payrolls is the way to go.
Good analysis. They’re playing chess w the future payroll system. Not trying to win in the '26 (or probably '27) season.
I remember reading reports when they were moving Contreras to first that said that part of the reason was because he was struggling with the pitching staff, calling for pitches that those pitchers didn’t actually throw.
Well,
- Average prime age is 27, and Arraez is entering his age 29 season, and
- Arraez is distinctly not as good a player as he used to be.
As Cards fan, the problem when MO(ran) was running team, there was very little development in minor league system, and the ranking you cited is AFTER Blooms moves.
Bloom has also totally revamped the farm system; He must have done something to get cheap-ass DeWitt to get off money to pay in order to trade players. As for Boston, it was reported the Betts deal came from the top
Left-handed starter Framber Valdez to the Tigers on a three-year, $115 million contract. It’s the highest annual salary ever for a left-handed pitcher, as well as the highest ever for a Latin pitcher.
The ESPN article says, " Valdez, who is from the Dominican Republic, hit free agency after spending his career with the Houston Astros and putting up one of the best résumés of any starting pitcher over the past five seasons." I confess that I’m not that familiar with him, but in looking at his stats, it looks to me like he is yes, very good, but not at the level which ESPN seems to suggest: his ERA is typically in the low 3s, WHIP around 1.1, ERA+ around 130 (well below the top 10).
Anyone who is more familiar with him: is my take inaccurate? Is he better than I’m seeing? Maybe it’s just that he’s reliable, not injury-prone, and gets a lot of ground balls; I don’t know.