With the World Series in the books, time for a new hot-stove season thread.
The White Sox are said to be picking up the 2026 option on centerfielder Luis Robert Jr., at $20 million. He had been an All-Star in 2023, when he hit .264 with 38 home runs, but has since trudged through two injury-plagued, unproductive seasons, in which he had nearly identical (and poor) statistics. The Sox had tried to trade him over the past two seasons, but apparently didn’t get any good offers.
I have to guess that they’re investing $20 million to hang onto a guy whom they hope gets healthy and productive again, and thus becomes legitimate trade bait again.
Despite only hitting .223, with an OBP of .297, he wound up in 5th place in the AL in steals.
Doing the math, Robert got on base (setting himself up for a possible steal) roughly 113 times in 2025: 71 non-HR hits, 40 walks, and 2 HPBs – I didn’t include any times he reached on a fielder’s choice, as I’m not sure where to find that stat. He attempted 41 steals (33 successes, 8 caught stealing), meaning that he tried to steal on about 36% of the occasions where he got on base.
Or maybe $20M is just the going rate for a bang-average player these days. Robert has been a below-average hitter, with average CF defense (although Range Factor has him much more highly-rated than DRS), and slightly above average base running for at least the last two years. Both season were 1.4 WAR and right at 0 WAA.
He was truly great in 2023 though, and is only 28, so maybe there is some upside there. And it just one-year; it’s hard to get truly burned on a one-year deal.
That’s pretty much the exact same story as Roberts, actually. Two of Flaherty’s last three seasons were both 0.8 WAR, and right around -0.5 WAA. But in 2024 he was actually a very useful pitcher.
He is two years older than Roberts as well. But pitching costs more than hitting, generally.
But yeah, any sort of player that is around league-average and has had any hint of being a good player in the past (and isn’t over 35) is probably able to get a one-year $20M contract no problem.
The Yankees did some not very exciting things with the bullpen. They picked up left hander Tim Hill’s team option. Pretty much a no brainer, he’s a lefty and a workhorse in middle relief. They also declined the option on Jonathan Loáisiga. He’s been in the organization since 2016 and has shown moments of brilliance. However he’s been on the IL more than he’s been healthy.
Any decision is complicated by the expected lock-out in 2027. For the Yankees, it would be an overpay for Grisham but also a best-case scenario if he accepts. 2025 was his career year that almost no-one thinks he’ll repeat. Still, a little too much for one-year is much better than being saddled with another bad contract.
Also, should the QO be the same amount for a relief pitcher?
All indications are that they will be offering a long term contract to Bellinger. But who knows, they might get out bid. Any way it shakes out isn’t bad for the team. Grisham doesn’t take the offer, they get a draft pick. Grisham stays and Bellinger signs, they get to cycle in a gold glove level outfielder in center. Neither of them sign they get to see if Spencer Jones is ready. Dominguez has to prove he can hit lefties before he becomes more than a part time player.
They are a lot thinner in the infield. 1st is a question. Goldschmidt won’t be coming back. He was a one year bandaid. Ben Rice can play 1st and catcher but he’s not really great at either. His bat means he will probably be mostly at 1st. Jazz is in his last year of arbitration so it will be interesting to see what they do. Past practice shows they will probably go to arbitration and worry about it next year. Volpe had surgery. His nagging injury might have been the reason for his woes last year. Maybe he will be better. I’m not convinced he will be ready for opening day. They have control of Ryan McMahon for several years. Great fielder but can they afford to have another automatic out? Munetaka Murakami might be in their sights. He said some good things about the Yankees so he might not be an automatic Dodger. The downside is I read he’s not a great 3rd baseman and may be destined for 1st wherever he goes. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I don’t want to get too political but I have no problem with this use of pardon power. Strawberry served his sentence long ago. His life was a mess then. Since then he has turned his life around and spends his time helping others.
Craig Stammen being named Padres manager was a major surprise. My daughter read that he was one of the people in on the interviews and, in Dick Cheney fashion, said “what about me”?
Rice is a decent athlete, and he was better than Goldy in most metrics at first. He should spend the bulk of his offseason improving his scoops and footwork. Rice even managed a .752 OPS against lefty pitching, mostly because his power shored up his low BA/OBP. I’d like to see him as the every day first baseman next year (placed lower in the order against lefties and perhaps leadoff against righties, depending on other acquisitions.)
I’m really wary of Murakami. I’m not sure this team can suffer another high-strikeout guy and he is pretty dismal against breaking stuff and velocity. He might be another ByungHo Park. What do you think of Kazuma Okamoto? He seems like a better fit and it wouldn’t surprise me if Cashman goes hard after him.
The Yankees have a lot of holes: outfield, depending on how it all shakes out with Grisham, Bellinger, Tucker, Dominguez and Jones. The bullpen is full of holes. One aspect that is intolerable is the offensive black hole at the bottom of the order with Wells, Volpe and McMahon. Something needs to change there.
Some people get caught the first time they rob a bank and walk out with $100. Other folks can rob bars and liquour stores for years, netting thousands every time.
Crimin’ ain’t as easy as it looks. Luck matters too.
