MLB Hot Stove / Offseason 2018-2019

:smack: Sure thing, sparky.

AAA ball is exactly the same as MLB. So is AA and the Australian League. Same skill level, same everything. Absolutely. Bill James should be enshrined in Cooperstown for this brilliant idea! There is no fucking difference at all! Any pitcher can throw Kershaw’s curve or Scherzer’s slider. Dial it up to 105 like Aroldis Chapman? No problemo. I think I did that last summer at the county fair.

Do we need to talk about defenders like Andrelton Simmons or hitters like Jose Altuve, or can we all just agree that Bill James is talking out of his ass?

I mean, never mind that he did not say that all the players are equally replaceable, or that MLB would not immensely suffer, or that all players are the same, or that an MLB player is equal in economic value to a beer vendor, or that there would not be a big drop in attendance if they all vanished. He did not say AAA players are the same as major league players and it’s kinda stupid to accuse him of that since, logically, if he thought that, he would be advising the Red Sox to get rid of all the players they have making more than the minimum. I realize it’s fun for people to criticize him for stuff he didn’t say, but it’s also dishonest.

What he said was in response to someone claiming “the players are the entire game,” and he is absolutely, one hundred percent correct in saying that’s stupid. If the 750 MLB players all vanished, they would be replaced, and within a surprisingly short period of time the level of play at the MLB level would not be visibly different to 99.5% of fans. Baseball would still be an immensely popular sport and people would want to watch professional baseball and would pay to see the best available players put on the uniforms of the Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals. Yes, the new players would not be nearly as good as the outgoing ones, but baseball would still exist, and the talent level would rise back to where it was. MLB on average turns over its entire player base every six years, after all.

The statement to which he was responding - that players are the entire game - is self-evidently stupid. If the current batch of MLB players were the entire game and all that mattered, they would not play for MLB. They’d go play their own games, charge admission and keep all the money. But they don’t, because they are not the entire game. There is a lot to producing the consumer product that is MLB. You need people to design and build stadia, people to do the scheduling, people to ump, people to broadcast, people to sew the uniforms, people to turn the bats, people to keep the grounds, people to write the stories, people to run the accounting department, people to run the social media accounts, people to arrange the travel, people to operate the scoreboard, people to be trainers and coaches and strength consultants, and yes, people to sell the beer. That does not mean an accountant should make the same as a beer vendor should make the same as Chris Sale, but it does mean they are all contributors to a cooperative enterprise.

James can be an old fool at times and in all honesty this was a dumb thing to say the way he said it just because it was inevitable that

A) People would deliberately misinterpret it, as we are seeing here, to suit an agenda, and

B) As a representative of an MLB team, he is responsible to not say things that will piss people off, even if he’s being honest.

But he was right. Nothing he said was wrong, and everything people are saying was wrong were things he did not actually say.

I hear you, but Harper is ticket sales, jerseys, Gatorade ads, and baseball cap sales. When I go to a Nats game on the road, I’m always surprised how many Harper jerseys I see. For the Nats, he gives credibility to a young franchise, that’s not nothing. He brings in more than he costs, even at $400m. The Post had once calculated his value at around $600m over 10 years when you calculate all the money he brings in for the team.

You know who could vanish instantaneously without harming the game at all? Every single sabermetrician.

Interesting take on things. I wonder who some other examples might be of athletes worth that kind of money to their franchise?

LeBron James impact on Cleveland is probably the most significant. I had read he was worth $300M - $500M to the city per year.

Please Yankees, do not sign Harper. Going from a glut of outfielders to a super glut is not helpful. A quality starter is all that separates this team from a dynasty.

I just don’t buy that. Harper was perhaps important to a young franchise before, but Washington has other stars and the legitimacy value of Harper isn’t what it was. A team with Max Scherzer is not some sort of minor league shithole that needs Bryce Harper to prove it matters.

He was the most exciting rookie hitter in many years - back in 2012. He was MVP in 2015 but has never been that good any other time. He’s been a good player, not great, for three years now, and if he’s not GREAT, there is no chance at all he’ll be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. If he keeps being good and not great, he will not confer legitimacy on the Nationals. He’ll just be an overpaid outfielder.

II don’t know what he’ll end up being just because he has such an odd profile. He is only 25, but he has the characteristics of an old player; a power hitter who walks a lot, doesn’t hit triples, doesn’t steal a lot of bases, and is a poor outfielder.

Some would say they only harmed it.

Not a quality starter, the Yanks need an Ace to be throwing words like dynasty around. But yes, no Harper.

Well, there certainly are a lot of stupid people around, so yeah, some would say that.

I love how people bitch about sabermetrics, and then trot out the statistics of their choice when defending their favourite players or arguing about trades and Hall of Fame selections.

How about JD Martinez becoming the first player ever awarded a Silver Slugger for 2 positions in one year? OF and DH. You could argue (and I would) that 57 games in the OF should not make one eligible for the award at that position. In fact, I have no idea what the criteria is for the Silver Slugger award by position.

I don’t think it has criteria beyond who votes for you. Obviously, it was a stupid choice, like the time Rafael Palmiero won a Gold Glove at first base even though he was a DH most of the year. Martinez is a great hitter but he was not more valuable in 57 games as other guys were in 150.

Other players got votes at multiple positions, too, actually.

The ones, the many ones, who get lost in the weeds, who lose sight of the fact that the point of the game (any game) is about winning, that it’s played by real humans, and who absolutely refuse to do any sort of reality check on their conclusions (despite the many statistical tools available to do so) as they get lost in space, yes, absolutely.

Hey, RickJay, if the players ran the game, they’d have to re-establish all that other stuff that you and James are claiming is part of the game, including the beer vendors. But that’s all part of the business. The *game *is the players. And the business doesn’t even exist without the game, does it? I really don’t think you believe that “in three years it would make no difference whatsoever”, either. You aren’t required to defend lunatic ravings just because the raver is on “your side”.

Who are these that are “lost in the weeds”? Who has lost sight of the point of the game?

Anybody who praises Billy Beane, for starters.

The game is also the fans, the rules,m the umps… drawing a distinction between “game” and “business” doesn’t really mean anything when specifically discussion MLB, which is, by definition, a business.

If you want to just talk about the game itself, what difference does it make if there is a Major League BNaseball at all? If MLB vanished there would still be a game. Kids would still play it, I’d still play it, millions would still play it.

  1. I do not believe three years would be enough to repair it, no. Most casual fans wouldn’t notice a difference in talent in three years, but reasonably knowledgable observers would still see a difference, and there would be a measurable difference in the talent level for at least six to eight years. It’s hard to say how long it would take business to recover, since pro sports are kind of on the decline in general.

  2. I’m not on anyone’s side. You appear to be, but I just like baseball and prefer to deal with facts.

A GM that makes the playoffs pretty…by winning. Despite having no payroll? Praising that Billy Beane makes one “lost in the weeds”? Seriously?

I’m really looking more for those “who absolutely refuse to do any sort of reality check on their conclusions (despite the many statistical tools available to do so)”. Who are these people. Got any names? Links?

The Yankees have supposedly talked to Cleveland about a trade for Kluber. Man, I hope that doesn’t happen. Kluber has been very good against the Red Sox in his career. Well, he’s very good against everyone, so I’d just rather not see him in pinstripes. Not sure the Yankees have the pieces to get him, no idea what their system looks like these days. I know they’ve got a lot of outfielders, though.

I wouldn’t mind seeing New York get Corey Kluber in a trade.

The New York Mets, that is. :slight_smile:

I was thinking about the Harper thing and decided to have some fun with numbers.

I ran a report for the 25 highest salaries among position players (no pitchers) for each of the last three seasons, and added up their Wins Above Replacement. Here’s a few fun trivia questions:

  1. What do you think the AVERAGE WAR is of a hitter whose salary was among the 25 highest paid hitters? Average per year. (It’s pretty close in all three of those seasons.)

  2. Of the top 25 highest paid hitters in any given season the last three years, how many per year put up something you’d call MVP numbers - let’s say, at least 5 WAR?

Curious?

The average per season WAR of a top 25 salaried hitter is just 1.8 over the last three years. That’s not a typo. In other words, the average top 25 salaried hitter is a much worse player than Kevin Pillar.

Over the last three years only seven players, total, have had over 5 WAR who were among the top 25 paid hitters - two in 2016 and 2017, and three in 2018.

Oh, and in 2015 they were worse; average 1.6, just one guy over 5.

Those facts amazed me.