MLB Hot Stove / Offseason 2018-2019

Well, seeing as how I know guys like Miggy Cabrera, Pujols, Yoenis Cespedes, Matt Kemp, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward and a host of other low WAR guys are in that group of top 25 salaries, I guessed they would drag the avg. down around 2.7 - 3.0. Nice to see I was way high.

Now that I go back and look, quite a few guys were lower WAR in 2018 than I thought. Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Buster Posey…all under 4.
Charlie Blackmon’s 2018 WAR was 0.8. How can this be? A guy that hits .291 with 29 HRs? Well, his dWAR was -2.7. Damn. Guess he was born to DH.

I am a little skeptical of that -2.7 figure for his defense. -2.7 is catastrophically bad; it’s possible, I guess, especially in Coors Field which has a lot of room and a guy who was acceptable in another park would be bad there, but it’s out of whack with his previous numbers and not really in line with a quick view of the overall defensive numbers. He’s not Willie Mays out there but I am unconvinced he’s Stevie Wonder.

Having said that, Blackmon (who didn’t qualify for my report in any season) will start making huge bucks next year, and is owed over $20 million each of the next four seasons. The odds that will work out for Colorado are, as near as I can tell, zero. There is basically no chance at all that contract will NOT be a disaster. Blackmon will be 33 this year and

  1. The number of big contracts that worked out for guys that old can be counted on your fingers, and
  2. The few that did work out are players who are nothing at all like Charlie Blackmon.

Shohei Ohtani won the AL rookie of the year award, which apparently angered Yankees fans almost as much as JD Martinez winning a silver slugger award for OF.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the NL ROY.

It is bullshit, don’t really care about the silver slugger. But Ohtani was not the AL ROY. Andújar contributed more and put up better numbers.

I think it’s wrong that Martinez wrong Silver Slugger at OF. But as it angers the Yankee fans, I’m fine with it.

How many wins did Andujar get? How many did he strike out?

Andujar had slightly better offensive numbers, that’s true. But Ohtani was a starting pitcher for 10 games and did very well. If you add up Ohtani’s total WAR, it’s a little higher than Andujar’s. And I don’t know what it’s worth to voters, but Ohtani generated more excitement and probably brought more fans to MLB than any other rookie.

No, he did not.

Every overall metric says Ohtani was a more valuable player; all measured of WAr put him ahead by a significant amount. But maybe you don’t like WAR, so let’s use some more conventional facts.

Andujar had 606 plate appearances. Ohtani had 367 plate appearances - plus he faced 211 batters as a pitcher, a total of 578 plate appearances. So in fact, despite what people have said, there really wasn’t a significant difference between them in playing time. It’s basically five percent.

In those plate appearances, Ohtani was absolutely a better player. He had a higher on base percentage, and a higher slugging percentage, despite playing in a worse hitter’s park. At bat for at bat he was unquestionably a better hitter; there is no rational argument to the contrary even if you hate “analytics.” (There is no significant difference in baserunning.)

And as a pitcher, he was as good as he was a hitter. At bat for at bat his pitching took away as many runs from the opposition as his hitting contributed to his team.

So they played about the same in terms of actual plate appearances, and Ohtani was significantly better, much more so than the five percent difference in plate appearances. So… I mean, how is this decision “bullshit”? Really, that’s bullshit?

Of course, Andujar has a significant advantage in playing time I have not mentioned; he was in the field for the whole season, which Ohtani was not, as Ohtani was either a DH or a pitcher and pitcher fielding doesn’t amount to anything. The thing is, Andujar is a very bad fielder. He was probably the worst third baseman in the major leagues, actually. (Indeed, according to WAR, Andujar wasn’t even the best rookie on his own team; Gleyber Torres was, because Torres is a good fielder.) It would be really, really generous to say he contributed nothing in that regard; in truth, he detracted. Again, you don’t have to reply on WAR; by traditional stats he was bad, and just watching him everyone agrees he was bad. It’s not a controversial position to say he’s a pretty bad glove. It’s something of an accomplishment for a third baseman to play all year and only turn six double plays.

I mean, this was not bullshit. It was an objectively good choice. The only rookie in the AL who might have been better was Joey Wendle and I would have voted for Ohtani, because, frankly, I’d discount the numbers of a 28-year-old journeyman who just peaked in his rookie season a little.

I’m cool with Ohtani winning the ROY. He really surged as a hitter in the last month.

It might be good for Andujar in the long run. He needs to improve quickly if he has any hope of staying at third. If he had been league average defensively this season, his WAR would have been well over 4 and he would have won the award.
Robinson Cano was pretty bad when he first came up too. The Yankees found the right mentor in Larry Bowa and Cano flourished defensively. I hope Andujar can follow a similar path. I really enjoyed watching him this season; he was the most consistent hitter on the team.

As for the Silver Slugger, does anyone care about the Silver Slugger? Can anyone name last years winners? If you grew up watching the Olympics, you might also be wondering who won the Gold Slugger.

I’ve never heard anyone argue over Silver Slugger awards. The only reason anyone noticed this year is because of the Martinez thing.

Bob Melvin is the AL manager of the year. I would say deservedly so. He got the A’s to a Wild Card spot. The other 2 finalists were Alex Cora and Kevin Cash. Cora finished 2nd and as great a season as the Red Sox had, Cash was probably more deserving. That Rays team started out ugly, got worse at the trade deadline, and managed to finish pretty strong with 90 wins in the toughest division in baseball.

I’m not exactly sure how they determine Manager of the Year, but if it’s “manager of the team that won a lot of games with a small budget,” does that mean it’s impossible for a Boston or New York manager to win it?

I mean, I don’t know that it is reasonably possible to ask a guy to win more than 108 games, is it?

WAR for managers would be an interesting stat, if there’s a way to calculate it.

As a Yankees fan, I REALLY hope the Yankees do NOT go after Machado.

I think winning with a small budget is a factor. But I think a bigger part is doing well with a team that sucked the previous year. The A’s had 3 losing seasons in a row until this year. Granted, those losing seasons were also under Melvin’s leadership. The Red Sox finished in 1st place for the 3rd year in a row.

Michael Kay says the Yankees are seriously interested.

A lot is being made about Machado’s comments regarding his lack of interest in “hustling” on the field. And I get it, we all want to see these guys give max effort. How many players throughout history have had a reputation as not-a-hustle guy and been mostly forgiven for it? I think Manny Ramirez was in Boston. It was Manny being Manny and fans were, by and large, Ok with it because he was still one of the best hitters in the game. Machado, however, also has a rep for being a dirty player, so I can understand why fans don’t want him. He’s a great hitter, but I don’t want to have to root for him.

The hell of it is that Machado would, if signed to a huge contract, be one of the few good bets for a long term contract. Most of them don’t work out, but he’s only 26 next year and a genuinely top notch player.

Machado is the same age as Bryce Harper, at least as good a hitter (arguably better), better defender at a more important position, but will probably get less money.

By the way, I’m starting to get really curious how bbref calculates dWAR. Harper’s was -3.2 in 2018. Really? He’s so bad in RF that he cost Washington 3 wins?

I wondered about that too. It really drags down his overall WAR numbers. He played 62 games in centerfield this season, so maybe he was spectacularly bad there?

Wouldn’t the 2 knee surgeries worry you? Each knee at that.