Orioles still happy to watch and wait. Rumored to be interested in James Paxton.
People keep talking about trading for Cease, but the White Sox are apparently asking the moon for him, and will probably continue dangling him as long as possible hoping someone will get desperate. That is not going to be Baltimore.
I saw they are asking for the top two prospects. That’s ridiculous. He’s not Cy Young. That puts the Yankees out too. They gave up the prospects they were willing to get rid of getting Soto.
Cease did finish second in Cy Young voting in 2022, but he was not nearly as good last year (4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP), nor had he been anything nearly as good prior to 2022, which suggests that he caught lightning in a bottle in '22, and that he probably has just regressed to his mean.
It’s possible that Cease was the victim of bad luck and/or bad fielding, or maybe he was just more hittable in 2023. HIs FIP was 3.72 and BAbip against was .331, well above his career mark of.298.
I’m pleased with the Stroman acquisition and I’d love to get Cease, but I don’t want to give up on Spencer Jones yet. His combo of power and speed is too enticing.
The Sox were at or near the bottom of MLB in most of the team fielding measures in 2023, though they were similarly lousy at fielding in 2022. (That said, it’s possible that Cease, himself, got better defensive support in his starts in '22 than he did in '23.)
Though, those numbers aren’t terribly out of line with his performance in 2021 (FIP 3.41, BAbip .310). I still think that he simply had a career year in 2022.
So what’s the biggest surprise so far? Snell still being on the market? Everyone always needs pitching. Apparently he’s asking too much. The Yankees are the only ones who made an offer.
Bellinger, Chapman, Montgomery, and Snell are all Scott Boras clients. He’ll hold out everyone until Opening Day and beyond if he thinks it will get him an extra dime.
There are some downsides but it’s pretty much a steal. He had a good season last year. Pitchers tend to age like milk so it’s possible at 35 he could have a sharp drop off but that’s relatively cheap. It is incentive heavy so not so cheap if he comes through.
Neris is a career 3+ ERA reliever who was lucky last season, evidenced by his 4.1 BB9 (3.83 FIP.) His BAbip was a career low .222. Not much risk, but the Cubs shouldn’t expect a lockdown closer, or even a reliable setup man.
Neris had a monster season last year, and his value is that he’s an absolute workhorse. He’s been deployed in more than a third of his team’s games every season for like a decade. For a team that needs bullpen depth, he’s a bargain.