The Tigers play in a pitchers park. His home run pace would slow down. His record would likely improve.
Mid-to-late Agust for him. I’ve got him on my watch list for fantasy baseball.
The scout I quoted earlier said that Haren doesn’t look like the same pitcher and that his stuff is coming out flat, with no bite.
Also, Oakland’s stadium is a really good pitchers’ park, and Haren’s ERA still went up in the second half of the season.
Listen, it comes down to this: do you think Dan Haren is the piece? If so, then you make the move. If not, then you don’t. The Yankees are in the Haren sweepstakes now, and for now, apparently, they’re not being asked for their top prospect, which is bullshit, because the Tigers would be giving up their top three prospects for Haren. I don’t think Haren is worth the price, given the holes. Another thing to consider is that Detroit isn’t really a free agent Mecca. Is our best chance to get a really good pitcher to trade for him or to get him through free agency? Probably through a trade.
However, Zach Greinke is supposedly available. I’d prefer him over Haren, especially at that price. (Fun notes, rumored trade bait Blue Jays catcher John Buck caught Grienke last year. Since he left in free agency, Grienke’s ERA went up. Also, the Yankees are supposed to be giving up their top prospect, Jesus Montero, and Phil Hughes for Grienke.)
Roy Oswalt is almost certainly going to St. Louis.
With the Tigers’ third base problem, they’re looking at Mike Lowell.
Lowell can barely walk anymore. He isn’t the answer to anybody’s problems. Now, if Boston decides they’re out of it, Adrian Beltre might be available for the last month or two of his cheap contract. But then the Angels need a 3B too, and they have more money and a better hitter’s park.
Why would the Yanks give up there one inexpensive starter and their top prospect for Grienke?
I promise you that trade will not happen LOUNE.
I still don’t know whether this makes sense or not, from St. Louis’s point of view, or how likely it is to actually happen. As far as I know right now, it’s not a done deal, but Oswalt himself wants to go to St. Louis.
Because he’s 26 and last year had one of the 10 best pitching seasons in our lifetimes.
It still doesn’t make sense. Hughes only goes to Arbitration next year. What is Grienke making?
According to Rotoworld:
1/26/09: Avoided arbitration by signing 4 year, $38M contract. 2009: $3.75M, 2010: $7.25M, 2011: $13.5M, 2012: $13.5M
I really don’t think it makes sense. Hughes is pretty good and the same age. It does not improve the Yanks to trade Hughes for Grienke and it does not make sense financially. Getting Greinke without giving up Hughes would make sense but I am not sure how that could get done.
He is 56 w 63 losses in his career. Lots of teams make a mistake jumping on a guy with a unusual year. It is risky.
St Louis will have a Yankee-esque starting rotation if Oswalt goes there. Carpenter, Wainright, Oswalt pitching in the playoffs…yikes.
He plays for the stinking Kansas City Royals, ferchrissakes.
Greinke, whose record is actually 56-62, according to MLB.com and Baseball Reference, has a W-L percentage of .475. In the six and a half years he’s been pitching for the Royals, their record is 426-642, for a percentage of .399. Without Greinke, their record would be even worse than that.
Also, by my count, the Royals have managed to lose a total of 32 games in which Greinke has given them a Quality Start (6+ innings, 3 or fewer earned runs). While the QS isn’t a great stat, this is further evidence that Greinke’s W-L record is more a product of his team than of his pitching.
While 2009 was an off-the-charts season for him, even if we leave that year out, Greinke is still a very solid performer, who can be relied on for an ERA+ of about 120 and a WHIP of around 1.25. That’s a good pitcher, period.
K.
Plus, there could be the fear of a relapse of his anxiety disorder - it destroyed Dontrelle Willis and it could destroy Zach Greinke too.
Well, fuck. Magglio Ordonez is out for 8 weeks with a fractured ankle. Yeah, the Red Sox have had more injuries, but they’ve had people to plug in.
Goddammit.
Just to further emphasize how silly the W-L stat is in this case, let’s compare Greinke with someone on your own team, Justin Verlander. This is a guy i know you like, because you’ve praised him on a bunch of occasions in these baseball threads.
First, let’s check out the similarities:
[ul]
[li]they’ve been in the Majors almost the same amount of time (7th year for Greinke, 6th for Verlander)[/li][li]both starting pitchers (although Greinke spent about a season as a reliever)[/li][li]similar career innings pitched (1021 for Greinke; 969 for Verlander)[/li][li]similar number of games started (156 for Greinke; 152 for Verlander)[/li][li]similar career ERA (3.71 for Greinke; 3.90 for Verlander)[/li][li]similar career ERA+ (120 for Greinke; 116 for Verlander)[/li][li]similar career WHIP (1.253 for Greinke; 1.276 for Verlander)[/li][li]similar career strikeouts (863 for Greinke; 870 for Verlander)[/li][li]sort of similar K/BB ratio (3.44 for Greinke; 2.65 for Verlander)[/li][/ul]That’s two pretty damn similar sets of career figures right there. I chose Verlander randomly because he was the first Tiger pitcher that came to mind, but i was amazed at how close their stats are.
In almost every area, they’re close enough that the difference could just be due to luck, or to park factors (something i didn’t even consider). And in basically every area where there’s a difference, Greinke is slightly better.
But look at the W-L records these two pitchers have managed over that period:
Greinke: 56-62 (.475)
Verlander 77-48 (.616)
Basically, the difference in their winning percentage can be largely attributed to the fact that, over the 5 seasons 2005-2009 inclusive, the Tigers ranked 11, 5, 2, 4, and 11 out of 14 in American League runs scored, while the Royals ranked 12, 12, 13, 12, and 13 out of 14.
God bless the Reds schedule the rest of the way. Playing the Sinking Fastros is an instant win balm for the soul…and to reclaim first place…
You were just so sure that grienke’s stats werea lot better than Verlander weren’t you. You proved that Verlander gets short shrift when people talk about top pitchers.
I imagine if Grienke pitched in Nyc or Boston ,he would have more victories. So would Verlander. I suppose you have to see runs scored by the Royals when Grienke pitches and runs scored by the Tigers for Verlander.
Thats what baseball tonite does. Bonds got regular stations breaking in to show his home run race with McGwire. That was just a season race. The steroid era hitters are coming to the HOF voting now. Baseball is going to have a real problem .
Guillen and Ordonez of the Tigers are both on the 15 day DL. Magglio is expected to be out for 2 months with a broken ankle.
Interesting that the Texas Rangers just posted on their facebook page that Jorge Cantu isn’t in the Marlins lineup today. Too late for me to adjust my fantasy lineup for today, but I wonder why the Rangers chose to report on Cantu? The Rangers making a deal for him, I wonder?