At that rate, Reynolds actually cost his team. The stolen base break-even rate for 2009 was about 81%, so if you’re getting caught more than 2 out of every 10 attempts, then you’re not benefiting your team at all. Reynolds would have needed 27 successful steals out of 33 attempts to beat the break-even numbers.
Of course, some SB situations are more high-leverage than others, and it could be that Reynolds had success in some situations that provided disproportionately high assistance to his team, but the raw figures suggest he should not try to steal as much as he does.
The interesting thing, if you scroll down a bit on that page, is that overall stolen base percentages fall short (often well short) of the break-even rate in every year they look at.
I admit the 81% number surprised me a little bit, as i thought i remembered, from my Baseball Prospectus book (i’m away from home now, and don’t have it with me), that the numbers were generally closer to 70-75%. But even at that rate, Reynolds’ SB numbers from last year are, at best, just a break-even figure.
Interesting analysis there, but I would swear to you that I’ve never seen a break even rate higher than 75% in the 5 or 6 articles I’ve read on it.
Looks like the numbers were derived from a Tom Tango tool, and he generally knows his shit, but it still seems high.
I’m not surprised that leagues generally fall short, especially back in the day when guys like Ruth (48.5% career basestealer in nearly 230 attempts) and Gehrig (50.5% in 202 attempts) were running for reasons that remain between them and god.
And I’m not too worried about Reynolds-I’ve seen enough guys (Vlad, Soriano) get the 40/40 bug to recognize it.
Sure. I didn’t bring it up as a real criticism of Reynolds; i simply wanted to point out that it’s not really a stat that demonstrates how valuable he is. If you were considering him for your team, his SB rate would (or should) not really factor into your consideration; at best, it’s a pretty neutral figure, neither good nor bad.
Edit:
Although you can say that even for very good base-stealers. If i remember correctly, the Baseball Prospectus crowd, in their article “What if Ricky Henderson had Pete Incaviglia’s Legs?”, noted that even a historically awesome base-stealer like Henderson gave his team far, far more value with his bat than he did on the bases. As i said, i don’t have the book with me, but when i get back to San Diego this weekend i’ll check to see what value they assigned to his stolen bases, compared to his hitting and defense.
I’ve always found that argument a little weak though as it does not seem to take into account the effect baserunners like Tim Raines, Lou Brock and especially Ricky had on the pitchers and catchers and the gaps opened up in the infield. Clearly Ricky’s bat was more important than his base-stealing but a non base-stealer that matched Ricky’s batting was to me at least far less valuable to the team. Maybe not as much in the homer inflated 90s, but still a lot of value that is harder to turn into statistics.
Even lesser talents like Brett Gardner, Ellsbury, Crawford, Ichiro, Reyes, Figgins and the like seem to have a major effect on the game when they are standing on first and second is open.
No hitter for the D-backs! Edwin Jackson tosses the second no hitter in Diamondbacks history. It’s been an ugly season for the D-backs, but this game helps.
If I recall correctly there’s no evidence at all that batters see an increase in batting average, or anything else positive, in at bats where a good basestealer is on.
“Rickey.” And truth be told… well, Rickey’s steals were valuable, just not THAT valuable.
Using one quickie formula I guess Rickey’s steals as being worth 155 runs. 155 runs is a hell of a lot of runs, but Rickey created, according to Baseball Reference, 2164 runs. So even if he’d never attempted a stolen base he’d still have created over two thousand runs and been an exceptionally great player. Not quite as great, but very close.
Wow. Eight walks and 149 pitches. His arm’s going to be pretty tired for the next few days.
Still, nice effort.
And that’s the third time in less than a year that the Rays have been no-hit, including two perfect games. Pretty amazing, considering they’re among the higher scoring teams in MLB.
Not really. I’m not a Cubs fan but I root for another team (Reds) in the same division, and its pretty well known that Carlos is an emotional tampon. That guy is so much fun to watch come unglued.
In this instance, apparently he was pissed off at his teammates for not diving for balls or playing hard enough. The guy is more trouble than he’s worth and hasn’t lived up to his reputation, quite frankly.
The worst batting average in the American League, an appalling .239, 23 points below the league average, and largely due to that the worst on base percentage in the league, and
114 home runs, easily the most in baseball.
So despite being the worst team in the league at the most important offensive skill, the Jays offense is actually a touch better than average, because they’re amazingly good at the SECOND most important offensive skill. As they’ve given up just 62 homers, they remain a team that wins basically only because they hit the ball really, really hard when they manage to hit it, while enjoying a pitching staff that is rather stingy with the homers. They don’t do anything else well; they don’t hit for average, don’t draw many walks, don’t steal bases, don’t even manage to get hit by pitches very often.
Having the worst on base percentage in the league while still having a good offense isn’t just unlikely; it’s impossible. This shouldn’t be happening. It has never happened in my entire life, in fact. In the 38 years I have lived on this earth, not once has the AL team with the lowest on base percentage scored an average number of runs, and in fact only once or twice has such a team even come close to an average number of runs. The team with the lowest OBP is usually absolutely dreadful.
So if the Blue Jays could actually pull this off, they would be perhaps the most home run-dependent team in the entire history of the league.
I don’t see how this can continue. For one thing, they’re not really a .239 team; on the other hand they’re not going to hit 240-250 homers, either. I’m inclined to believe that the return to normalcy in power is going to outweigh the improvement in getting on base and the offense will get worse.
With a 2-1 victory last night, the Padres continue to win the close, low-scoring games. They have the 4th-worst offense in the NL, but the best pitching, giving up only 3.24 runs per game.
They took the lead last night on an interesting play. Jerry Hairston hit a one-out triple, and pitcher Jon Garland came up to bat. He worked the count to 3-2, then popped one down the right field line. It was falling in foul territory, and the Marlins’ right fielder had an easy play at the ball. He made the catch, but it was deep enough that Hairston was able to tag and score from third.
The Marlins bullpen was apparently calling to their right fielder to let the ball drop. If he had let it go, they would have been pitching to the pitcher on 3-2, with a good chance to prevent the run from scoring. As it was, though, the run scored and it was enough for the Padres to win.
A good win, too, considering the way that Josh Johnson has been pitching for Florida. The Padres are the first team in two months to score more than 1 run against him.
Now Pedroia’s out long term, and maybe Buchholz too, along with the entire outfield and Beckett. Just too many injuries piling up for Boston, no matter how close they still may be. At least they finally shelved Lowell, but maybe too late. I just don’t see this team in the playoffs.
Moyer’s like 47 going on 48 and he still looks sharp. 33 wins from 300 now. He might have to pitch until he’s 50 to get there, but, why not? He doesn’t look like he’s ready to quit anytime soon.
When Jamie Moyer starting pitching in the big leagues, Ronald Reagan was still President. The World Wide Web was still years from invention. “The Phantom of the Opera” began its run in London. The Iran-Contra Affair was still a few months from bursting all over the front page. Hardly anyone had a cell phone and if you did have one it was likely attached to your car. There was still an East Germany and a Soviet Union; there were no independent nations called East Timor, or Slovakia, or Namibia.
If you aren’t a fan of Jamie Moyer, you just don’t have a heart.
Its amazing indeed. And giving up the most homers ever really isn’t that ignominious due to the sheer duration of his career. He’s given up 506 HR’s so far, but what’s more interesting to me is how many batters he’s given them up to. I heard it was 300 something.
You’ve got to be a pretty good pitcher to be able to last long enough to give up that many homers.
He’s got to be the ultimate late bloomer, never pitching well at the major league level between the ages of 23-28, except for a hard luck 9-15 season for the Cubs in '88. After a miserable 0-5 stint with the Cardinals in 1991, and not even pitching all that well for Louisville (5-10, 3.80), he pitched well for Toledo in 1992, but the Tigers foisted him off on Baltimore, where he ripped off a 6-0 record at Rochester before the Orioles brought him back to the majors at the age of 30.