It looks like I will actually get to watch 4 Cub games in a row, as they’re hosting the Reds for 4 games, starting tonight. My cable package gives me FoxSports Ohio, instead of Chicago (considering that I live 5+ hours from Chicago, and 1 1/2 hours from Cincinnati, this makes some sense).
The Reds have been hit-or-miss this season. They either play great, or horribly. And the Cubs have been equally schizophrenic.
It actually does make a little sense, though. On a cross-country red-eye, you can sleep for a good stretch. Jumping from Pittsburgh to Philly and the like is nothing but load, up, down, unload with no chance for even a nap.
But yeah, a little more of an eye to the cross-country flights would be nice.
Okay, you have to be a little surprised.
Rogers Centre is a much better place to hit than the Coliseum, but geez, it’s not THAT much better. It is generally a neutral place to hit, if anything. Donaldson has been absolutely ridiculous in Toronto (.372, 12 home runs) and just good on the road (.252, 5 homers) which has to be, to some extent, just random chance. No park is that much easier to hit in.
(bolding mine)
Surprised (ha!) to see you say that: the parkfactors.com site (Park Factors for Rogers Center, Toronto) describes Rogers Centre as “an extreme hitter’s park,” more conducive to offense than either Fenway or Wrigley, for instance. That’s based on 2010-2013–maybe things have been different in other years.
I agree that Donaldson’s splits (which I hadn’t seen, thanks for sharing) are pretty fluky. I should have prefaced some of what I said with “assuming Posnanski’s emphasis on park effects is right…” Posnanski is a very good writer and an insightful journalist, but he does take park effects EXTREMELY seriously (especially when he is trying to make the case that Trout should have won Cabrera’s MVP awards). --So yes, I am a little surprised by how well Donaldson is doing, but if park effects are as determinative as Posnanski thinks, some improvement over his previous numbers could certainly have been predicted. That’s all I’m saying.
I must have been looking at the wrong numbers. Actually the stadium’s park effect IS down this year, but that, too, is likely just a fluke, probably related to the pitching staff being on a roll during this homestand. I looked up the year by year stats and it’s been hitter happy every year going back quite a ways. As it should be; the park has short dimensions, not a huge amount of foul territory, it’s not at sea level, and it’s got a roof that closes when it’s cold.
Of course, parks can affect hitters differently than they do the average hitter (see Mel Ott.) Maybe Josh Donaldson just adores hitting in the dome. If so, that is legitimately something about Josh Donaldson that is uniquely valuable to him and represents real game-winning ability, not just a statistical illusion. I don’t believe it is; I think his park splits will probably even out, or I sure hope so 'cause they’re in Boston this weekend. But if Donaldson has an ability to exploit Rogers Centre that’s real value.
On a related topic, I’m kind of confused as to why Posnanski would lean on park effects to tout Trout. The main argument for Trout in 2012 and 2013, really, was that he was a gooddefensive outfielder while Cabrera is a crappy defensive player anywhere he is. They were very, very close in offensive value.
Could it be as simple as installing Field Turf instead of that green cement? That would certainly cut down on grounders getting past the infield.
Somebody arguing that a Triple Crown winner was not the MVP has an uphill battle facing them.
They had FieldTurf before, too; the old school Astroturf has been gone for a few years. This year’s turf is allegedly slower than last year’s, but that doesn’t really have that much to do with the park being easy to hit in because its most distinguishing characteristic is that it’s easy to hit home runs in.
It will be interesting to see what happens in 2018 or 2019 when the turf is entirely done away with and it’s real grass.
In other Blue Jays news they have called up Phil Coke, because what their bullpen needed was a guy who wasn’t even good enough to pitch for the Cubs.
Hey, now…the Cubs are actually halfway decent this season. So far.
Or the bullpen in Detroit!
I can’t be sure what Posnanski was getting at with his emphasis on park factors, not being him and this being a while back, but two things:
–he was probably speaking at least in part to the folks who think that defense is not very important. (“Yes, Cabrera was a better offensive player, but it’s closer than you think…close enough that ANY advantage on defense is enough to put Trout over the top.”)
and
–he may have been speaking to some folks who take the numbers VERY seriously. Though the advanced defensive metrics for Trout in 2012 made him out to be some kind of amazing SuperGod in the outfield, my recollection is that in 2013 those same numbers were a lot less impressive for him–ISTR that till close to the end of the season that year, Trout was actually showing up as a below-average centerfielder. (“Okay, the defensive gap isn’t huge this year, but the offensive gap is still very nearly nonexistent.”)
That’s what I recall, and what I can reconstruct, anyway.
Go Blue Jays!
I generally couldn’t care less about the American League, but Toronto just tied the team record for a win streak at 11 games.
I’m also really liking the Diamondbacks the last few days. 
I was fascinated by John Farrell’s decision to second Rodriguez back out after he’d given up six runs to Toronto in the fourth, because it was… just such a good decision against what conventional wisdom would dictate. The announcers were all like “why’re they sending the kid out again, he just got pounded by the best offense in the majors,” but I thought it was the right call.
And he would’ve gotten out of it, too, if Boston hadn’t bungled another popup. He came in and threw good pitches, but the dropped popup blew the inning open again.
Monster offense in Toronto, but only the Red Sox pitching staff have given up more runs in the AL. Now would be the time for an expensive rental like Cueto or Hamels if they want to go anywhere in the postseason.
For wh, the Jays?
Yeah, a lot of talk about the Jays getting Cueto; apparently they’re scouting his heavily. The problem is the price would be enormous and would have to be paid entirely in prospects, because Toronto’s talent base is a mile wide and an inch deep; there’s no genuine MLB player they could give up without simply opening a gaping hole as big as the one they’re plugging.
A package for Cueto would at a minimum require Daniel Norris, probably Devon Travis (forcing them to play Goins all year at second) and at least one of two top prospects below AAA ball. That’s the minimum the Reds could possibly accept, unless the deal includes unloading a crappy contract too.
Jon Lester actually pitched decently last night, with 7 solid innings. Cubs are looking decent over the past week or so. They’re not the schizophrenic mess that they were earlier this season. However, it’s really time to designate Edwin Jackson for assignment. He’s useless.
Looks like that series in Boston was just what the Jays needed. Most Sox fans think Farrell is toast despite the recent vote of confidence from the front office. That was before back to back sweeps. They are just a mess, but I don’t blame Ferrell.
I think the Giants should volunteer to play all remaining games this season on the road. Sure, it will suck for their season-ticket holders, but they might actually win another game at some point…
The Padres’ coach lost his job after 8 years of service. Despite coaching a division rival, I’ve always kind of liked the guy. It feels too soon to me in the season for that, especially since the Padres are hardly out of it. But after all of the off-season hoopla, I can see how there was hope for a lot more than what they’ve gotten so far. Not sure how much Black is to blame for that, though.
The Padres were determined to overspend and put together an incredible mismatch of a team. Bud Black isn’t to blame.
Blue Jays lost, the bums.